Bookmakers Shorten Rishi Sunak to Win the Next General Election

Bookmakers Shorten Rishi Sunak to Win the Next General Election
Nigel Skinner
Nigel Skinner Blog Content Manager

Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites

  • No General Election Expected until 2024 or Later by Bookies
  • Betting Sites Expect Sunak to be Conservative Leader at the Time of the Next GE
  • Conservatives Given 70% Chance of Winning Most Seats

As Chancellor, one would expect Rishi Sunak to be in the news a great deal, and this weekend is no exception as details of granted planning permission for his home are in the news.

Whilst that may be completed in the short term, Sunak can look forward to bookmakers confidence that he is most likely to be Conservative leader and the next prime minister as some point from 2024 onwards if the correct betting odds probabilities are accurate.

Next Prime Minister Betting Odds

These odds are for 'After Boris Johnson' So could also include a change in leadership prior to a general election.

Candidate Odds Probability %
Rishi Sunak 3/1 25%
Keir Starmer 4/1 20%
Michael Gove 15/1 6.25%
Jeremy Hunt 16/1 5.88%
Liz Truss 20/1 4.76%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 30/8/2021

Rishi Sunak is the favourite to take over the leadership of the conservative party should Boris Johnson no longer be at the helm, so could of course win this market without the need of a general election.

2024 for the Next General Election

While Rishi Sunak has the advantage in the market above in being able to land the position without a general election, bookmakers feel we will be waiting until at least 2024 for the next GE

Date of Next General Election

Date Odds Probability %
2024 or later 3/5 62.50%
2023 2/1 33.33%
2022 14/1 6.67%
2021 50/1 1.96%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 30/8/2021

Most Seats Won

Without knowing who will be the prime minister at the time of the next general election, one is dipping a toe into murky water by betting on who will win the most seats, or whether an overall majority would be won, but right now, The Conservative are very much the favourites for a win in the next General Election.

Most Seats in Next General Election

Party Odds Probability %
Conservative 1/2 66.67%
Labour 2/1 33.33%
Liberal Democrat 100/1 1%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 30/8/2021

The betting odds suggest Rishi Sunak will be the next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson with the conservatives probably winning a general election in 2024 or later.
Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - olbg.com

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