Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- No General Election Expected until 2024 or Later by Bookies
- Betting Sites Expect Sunak to be Conservative Leader at the Time of the Next GE
- Conservatives Given 70% Chance of Winning Most Seats
As Chancellor, one would expect Rishi Sunak to be in the news a great deal, and this weekend is no exception as details of granted planning permission for his home are in the news.
Whilst that may be completed in the short term, Sunak can look forward to bookmakers confidence that he is most likely to be Conservative leader and the next prime minister as some point from 2024 onwards if the correct betting odds probabilities are accurate.
Next Prime Minister Betting Odds
These odds are for 'After Boris Johnson' So could also include a change in leadership prior to a general election.
| Candidate | Odds | Probability % |
|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak | 3/1 | 25% |
| Keir Starmer | 4/1 | 20% |
| Michael Gove | 15/1 | 6.25% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Liz Truss | 20/1 | 4.76% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 30/8/2021
Rishi Sunak is the favourite to take over the leadership of the conservative party should Boris Johnson no longer be at the helm, so could of course win this market without the need of a general election.
2024 for the Next General Election
While Rishi Sunak has the advantage in the market above in being able to land the position without a general election, bookmakers feel we will be waiting until at least 2024 for the next GE
Date of Next General Election
| Date | Odds | Probability % |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 or later | 3/5 | 62.50% |
| 2023 | 2/1 | 33.33% |
| 2022 | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| 2021 | 50/1 | 1.96% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 30/8/2021
Most Seats Won
Without knowing who will be the prime minister at the time of the next general election, one is dipping a toe into murky water by betting on who will win the most seats, or whether an overall majority would be won, but right now, The Conservative are very much the favourites for a win in the next General Election.
Most Seats in Next General Election
| Party | Odds | Probability % |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1/2 | 66.67% |
| Labour | 2/1 | 33.33% |
| Liberal Democrat | 100/1 | 1% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 30/8/2021
