With only a couple of weeks to go before the start of the
Cheltenham festival bookmakers are beginning to fall over
themselves to attract business, and special offers will be flying
around in the coming days. A couple of firms have already offered
the Non Runner No Bet concession and with the risk of your
selection being a non-runner and you losing your money removed,
this is usually a time where business slowly starts to pick up.
One way of approaching the markets with the safety net of non
runner no bet is to try and foresee which horses may shorten
significantly in the market. Often this happens when a horses
target is uncertain so bigger prices are offered in several races.
With that in mind I have picked some horses out who could shorten
in the market if they end up running in their respective races, and
whilst their prices suggest there are more likely winners a case
can be made for each outrunning their current odds. And of course
there is always the option of trading out on the exchanges closer
to the race when hopefully some prices will have shortened. If they
don't run then nothing is lost…
O'FAOLAINS BOY (25/1 NRNB
BetVictor) Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Rebecca Curtis
has a leading fancy in this race in the form of At Fishers Cross
but this point to point graduate has impressed in his short career
to date, and could provide a solid second string for the trainer.
He looks a real chaser in the making and whatever he does over
hurdles is likely to be bettered once he jumps fences. He has
beaten some decent prospects in his two hurdling starts including
Oscar Magic, Ballytober and Midnight Appeal, and he has improved
with every run. He is probably a little short on experience for a
race of this nature but he has run in three point to points in
addition to his rules races, and won over 3 miles on good ground so
better ground could bring about more improvement. This would
represent a big step up in class but he is an interesting contender
if connections let him take his chance
GOULANES (16/1 NRNB
BetVictor) RSA Chase The Pipe yard has the favourite for
this race in the shape of Dynaste who looks to be an intended
runner despite the Jewson still being an option. Whether he runs or
not, Goulanes has a different owner and connections may well let
him take his chance in this race. He has only the 1 start over
fences so far but he impressed in it when beating Super Duty in the
Grade 2 Towton. Jumped well that day for a novice and it was clear
that stamina is his forte. He won a Listed handicap hurdle in heavy
ground at Cheltenham earlier in the season so the hill should prove
no problem for him, and he looks like an exciting chaser for the
future and could get involved here if it doesn't come too soon for
him in his jumping career
SIRE COLLONGES (40/1 NRNB
BetVictor) Jewson Novices Chase Purely from an odds
point of view it is easy enough to see this horse starting at a
shorter price than the current 40/1. It would appear this is his
target and he could easily find himself as Nicholls' first string
in the race. Not many Nicholls horses will go off at 40/1, and if
Boston Bob ends up running elsewhere then it could even be Ruby
Walsh who takes the ride which would make it even less likely he
will be 40/1. From a racing point of view this race looks very
open, and although he was well beaten behind Our Father when last
seen he des have a Cheltenham win to his name this season. He is a
good jumper and a fast run race over 2m5f on better ground should
suit him well. There are classier types in the race and likelier
winners, but he will jump well from the front and if his odds do
contract you can always trade out on the exchanges to ensure a
profit
CHATTERBOX (16/1 NRNB
BetVictor) Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle He beat his
more fancied stable-mate My Tent Or Yours on his hurdling debut in
testing conditions at Newbury, for all My Tent Or Yours wasn't at
his best that day and has improved dramatically since it would
seem. He then beat promising juvenile hurdler Lac Fontana giving
him 16lb and although it could be said that Lac Fontana has let the
form down since, the way in which Chatterbox beat him that day I
would not adhere to that theory. He has finished full of running in
soft ground over 2 miles and the step up in trip should suit him.
He is a son of Poliglote and so better ground may not be as much of
a problem for him as it would first appear, but his lack of
experience is a legitimate concern. Nicky Henderson has no other
obvious candidate for this race so if he takes his chance he could
easily be half the price he currently is
GRANDS CRUS (20/1 NRNB
BetVictor) World Hurdle A horse that splits opinion and
a far from certain runner but he is another who has the potential
to shorten up if he is given the go ahead for this race. He has
been very disappointing in 3 of his last 4 starts now and seems to
have a problem which his connections can't get to the bottom of.
Better ground at the festival will suit him better than the very
testing ground this winter, and in between all the poor runs he did
run a good race to come 3rd in the King George. Looking back to his
hurdling career he won a Cleeve Hurdle by 10L and ran Big Bucks
close in this race back in 2011. That form would give him leading
claims here and if the vibes are positive beforehand and he does
run in this race it is unlikely 20/1 will be available for all he
is likely to split opinion on the back of his recent form
EXTRA TIP There are several races this year which are
shaping up to have very few runners. The Arkle and the Champion
Chase are two such events and taking the ante-post each way terms
of ¼ odds 3 places may be worth taking a chance on, given the 3
places may not be available on the day if only 6 or 7 runners turn
up. Horses like Arvika Ligeonniere, Wishfull Thinking and Finians
Rainbow are all decent prices and although they are all unlikely
winners they all have very realistic chances of finishing in the
first 3.
The Champion Chase in particular could be a market to look at as
the current 2nd and 3rd favourites are both uncertain runners
(Sizing Europe and Cue Card). If they don't run then we could have
a very small field and the aforementioned along with Mail De Bievre
and Sanctuaire will all be shorter but at that stage only 2 places
will be available for each way betting. Bet365 and BetVictor are
both currently NRNB ¼ 3 places currently and an each-way wager may
be a worthwhile investment to take advantage of the terms offered
