Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
The Fate of Favourites
Average Cheltenham Festival Favourite Odds
Many punters think that most short-priced favourites are good things and a lot of odds-ons are near certainties.
Every punter has a different view on short-priced favourites and some rarely back short-priced favourites on their own but occasionally do them in doubles and/or trebles.
The tables above and below show us how every short-priced favourite faired in their particular race.
Head over to our essential Cheltenham Free Bets page to see the latest bookmaker offers at the Cheltenham Festival.
The Overall Numbers
We have broken down in easy-to-fathom tables the fate of the favourites at the Cheltenham Festival between 2016 and 2025.
Hopefully, this will help us beat the leading bookmakers in the coming years at Prestbury Park.
1. Looking back over the past ten festivals, the outright favourites have a strike rate of 31.66% with 82 winners out of 259 runners.
| Year | Races | Fav Winners | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27 | 8 | 29.63% |
| 2024 | 26 | 8 | 30.77% |
| 2023 | 25 | 7 | 28.57% |
| 2022 | 25 | 11 | 44.00% |
| 2021 | 28 | 8 | 28.57% |
| 2020 | 23 | 7 | 30.43% |
| 2019 | 26 | 9 | 34.62% |
| 2018 | 27 | 8 | 29.63% |
| 2017 | 27 | 6 | 22.22% |
| 2016 | 25 | 10 | 40.00% |
Cheltenham or Aintree Favourites
2. In this table you can view the breakdown for ALL Cheltenham favourites and how many won in each price band.
| Odds From | Odds To | Wins | Races |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2/9 | 10/11 | 25 | 50 |
| 1/1 | 2/1 | 27 | 62 |
| 85/40 | 11/4 | 10 | 38 |
| 3/1 | 4/1 | 13 | 61 |
| 9/2 | 11/2 | 6 | 34 |
| 13/2 | 9/1 | 1 | 14 |
3. Looking at the Cheltenham odds-on favourites, they won 50% of the time, (25-50) which isn't great.
| Year | Odds On Favs | Odds On Fav Win | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7 | 2 | 28.57% |
| 2024 | 7 | 5 | 71.43% |
| 2023 | 3 | 2 | 66.66% |
| 2022 | 5 | 3 | 60.00% |
| 2021 | 7 | 3 | 42.86% |
| 2020 | 6 | 1 | 16.67% |
| 2019 | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| 2018 | 6 | 4 | 66.67% |
| 2017 | 3 | 1 | 33.33% |
| 2016 | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
Odds On Cheltenham Festival Favourites
4. Looking at the bigger odds for outright favourites at Cheltenham, the 10-year stats (2016-2025) show only one festival horse above 7/1 has won.
| Time | Date | Horse | Odds | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30:00 | 17/03/2021 | Grand Roi | 7.00 | 12th |
| 14:10:00 | 16/03/2018 | Flying Tiger | 7.00 | 16th |
| 17:30:00 | 14/03/2017 | Foxtail Hill | 7.00 | Fell |
| 16:50:00 | 16/03/2016 | Jaleo | 7.00 | 10th |
| 14:40:00 | 11/03/2025 | Myretown | 7.50 | 1st |
| 14:50:00 | 15/03/2023 | Sa Fureur | 7.50 | Pulled Up |
| 14:50:00 | 13/03/2019 | Uradel | 7.50 | 7th |
| 16:50:00 | 16/03/2018 | Flawless | 7.50 | 12th |
| 14:50:00 | 15/03/2016 | Out Sam | 7.50 | 7th |
| 17:30:00 | 16/03/2018 | North Hill Harvey | 8.00 | Fell |
| 14:50:00 | 15/03/2022 | Floueur | 8.50 | 10th |
| 16:50:00 | 14/03/2018 | Nube Negra | 8.50 | 3rd |
| 14:50:00 | 16/03/2016 | Rock The Kasbah | 8.50 | 22nd |
| 14:10:00 | 16/03/2017 | Impulsive Star | 9.00 | 21st |
Biggest Priced Winning Festival Favourite
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
2025 Favourite Results
The 2025 Cheltenham Festival was not one to remember for the hot shots! From the seven runners sent off at odds-on favourite, only two of those went on to success!
Those were Kopek Des Bordes in the Supreme and Lossiemouth in the Mares Hurdle, both for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs 2/9 (1.62) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Champion Chase | Jonbon 2/8 (1.83) | Nicky Henderson & Nico Boinville |
| Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Ballyburn 5/7 (1.57) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Champion Hurdle | Constitution Hill F/7 (1.50) | Nicky Henderson & Nico Boinville |
| Mares Hurdle | Lossiemouth 1/10 (1.67) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Arkle Chase | Majborough 3/5 (1.50) | Willie Mullins & Mark Walsh |
| Supreme Novices Hurdle | Kopek Des Bordes 1/11 (1.67) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
2024 Favourite Results
Outright favourites had a 31% strike rate in 2024, from 26 races we saw a total of 8 of the favourites going to win.
It was a bumper year for odds-on shots, we saw 7 of them with 6 of those from the Willie Mullins yard, 5 of his went on to win, the only one defeated was another odds-on shot defeat in the Champion Chase.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Champion Hurdle | State Man 1/8 (1.4) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Mares Hurdle | Lossiemouth 1/11 (1.62) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Gallagher Novices Hurdle | Ballyburn 1/7 (1.5) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Fact To File 1/6 (1.62) | Willie Mullins & Mark Walsh |
| Champion Chase | El Fabiolo PU/6 (1.22) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Mares Novices Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead 2/8 (1.83) | Gordon Elliott & Jack Kennedy |
| Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs 1/11 (1.91) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
2023 Favourite Results
Two of the three odds-on favourites won in 2023 with both Gaillard Du Mesnil and Constitution Hill winning at odd-on however, Might Potter was a beaten favourite in the Turners' Novices Chase only finishing third.
Overall at the 2023 festival, the outright favourites won 7 of the 25 races in which there was an outright favourite, a strike rate of 28% and an LSP of -10.57.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Turners Novices Chase | Mighty Potter 3/7 (1.67) | Gordon Elliott & Davy Russell |
| National Hunt Challenge Cup | Gaillard Du Mesnil 1/10 (1.91) | Willie Mullins & Patrick Mullins |
| Champion Hurdle | Constitution Hill 1/7 (1.36) | Nicky Henderson & Nico Boinville |
2022 Favourite Results
Not the best of times in 2022 for the odds-on favourites with only three of the five being successful, both Galopin Des Champs and Shishkin failed to finish their races.
There were a total of 25 races which had an outright favourite, from those 11 (44%) went on to win their races for an LSP of +6.04.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Ryanair Chase | Allaho 1/7 (1.57) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Turners Novices Chase | Galopin Des Champs F/4 (1.83) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Champion Chase | Shishkin PU/7 (1.83) | Nicky Henderson & Nico Boinville |
| Ballymore Novices Hurdle | Sir Gerhard 1/9 (1.73) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Champion Hurdle | Honeysuckle 1/10 (1.73) | Henry De Bromhead & Rachael Blackmore |
2021 Favourite Results
Plenty of odds-on shots in 2021, however, it wasn't a good year for them with more losing than winning! Envoi Allen, Kilcruit, Chacun Pour Soi & Concertista were all sent off at odds-on and all failed to win their races.
Favourites overall didn't have the best of times in 2021, all 28 races had an outright favourite but only 8 of those went on to win (29%) for an LSP of -7.73.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Marsh Novices Chase | Envoi Allen F/8 (1.44) | Henry De Bromhead & Jack Kennedy |
| Champion Bumper | Kilcruit 2/14 (1.91) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Champion Chase | Chacun Pour Soi 3/9 (1.62) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Monkfish 1/6 (1.25) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Mares Hurdle | Concertista 2/10 (1.91) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
| Arkle Chase | Shishkin 1/5 (1.44) | Nicky Henderson & Nico Boinville |
| Supreme Novices Hurdle | Appreciate It 1/8 (1.73) | Willie Mullins & Paul Townend |
Schedule for Tuesday at the Cheltenham Festival
Prepare for the ROAR of the Cheltenham Festival on the opening day when the tape goes up for the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the feature on Tuesday is the Champion Hurdle.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Cheltenham Supreme Novices Hurdle | Kopek Des Bordes (FR) 5yo - 4/6 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:00 Cheltenham Arkle Challenge Trophy | Jango Baie (FR) 6yo - 5/1 | Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville |
| 14:40 Cheltenham Ultima Handicap Chase | Myretown (IRE) 8yo - 13/2 | Lucinda Russell Patrick Wadge |
| 15:20 Cheltenham Close Brothers Mares Hurdle | Lossiemouth (FR) 6yo - 4/6 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:00 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle | Golden Ace (GB) 7yo - 25/1 | Jeremy Scott Lorcan Williams |
| 16:40 Cheltenham Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle | Puturhandstogether (IRE) 4yo - 17/2 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien Mark Walsh |
| 17:20 Cheltenham National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup | Haiti Couleurs (FR) 8yo - 7/2 | Rebecca Curtis Ben Jones |
Schedule for Wednesday at the Cheltenham Festival
The dust has settled on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival and now on to day two. The feature on the second day is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. We also have the cross country scheduled on Wednesday, a race like Marmite, some love it and some don't!
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Cheltenham Turners Novices Hurdle | The New Lion (GB) 6yo - 3/1 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 14:00 Cheltenham Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Lecky Watson (IRE) 7yo - 20/1 | W P Mullins Sean O'Keeffe |
| 14:40 Cheltenham Coral Cup | Jimmy Du Seuil (FR) 6yo - 16/1 | W P Mullins Danny Mullins |
| 15:20 Cheltenham Cross Country Chase | Stumptown (IRE) 8yo - 5/2 | Gavin Cromwell Keith Donoghue |
| 16:00 Cheltenham Queen Mother Champion Chase | Marine Nationale (IRE) 8yo - 5/1 | Barry Connell Sean Flanagan |
| 16:40 Cheltenham Johnny Henderson Grand Annual | Jazzy Matty (FR) 6yo - 15/2 | Cian Collins Danny Gilligan |
| 17:20 Cheltenham Champion Bumper | Bambino Fever (IRE) 5yo - 4/1 | W P Mullins Miss J Townend |
Schedule for Thursday at the Cheltenham Festival
Halfway through the festival and onto day three where the Stayers Hurdle is the feature race. A hurdle race to test the stamina and see how can last best up the Cheltenham hill.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Cheltenham Mares Novices Hurdle | Air Of Entitlement (IRE) 6yo - 16/1 | Henry De Bromhead Rachael Blackmore |
| 14:00 Cheltenham Novices Limited Handicap Chase | Caldwell Potter (FR) 7yo - 7/1 | Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden |
| 14:40 Cheltenham Pertemps Network Final | Doddiethegreat (IRE) 9yo - 25/1 | Nicky Henderson Brian Hughes |
| 15:20 Cheltenham Ryanair Chase | Fact To File (FR) 8yo - 6/4 | W P Mullins Mark Walsh |
| 16:00 Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle | Bob Olinger (IRE) 10yo - 8/1 | Henry De Bromhead Rachael Blackmore |
| 16:40 Cheltenham Festival Plate | Jagwar (FR) 6yo - 3/1 | Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero Jonjo O'Neill Jr |
| 17:20 Cheltenham Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup | Daily Present (IRE) 8yo - 12/1 | Paul Nolan Mr B T Stone |
Schedule for Friday at the Cheltenham Festival
The final day of the festival and feature race that we have all been waiting for, the Cheltenham Gold Cup in which the Irish have been fairly dominant in recent years.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle | Poniros (GB) 4yo - 100/1 | W P Mullins Jonjo O'Neill Jr |
| 14:00 Cheltenham County Handicap Hurdle | Kargese (FR) 5yo - 3/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:40 Cheltenham Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase | Dinoblue (FR) 8yo - 6/4 | W P Mullins Mark Walsh |
| 15:20 Cheltenham Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle | Jasmin De Vaux (FR) 6yo - 6/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:00 Cheltenham Cheltenham Gold Cup | Inothewayurthinkin (IRE) 7yo - 15/2 | Gavin Cromwell Mark Walsh |
| 16:40 Cheltenham Festival Hunters Chase | Wonderwall (IRE) 9yo - 28/1 | S Curling Mr R James |
| 17:20 Cheltenham Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle | Wodhooh (FR) 5yo - 9/2 | Gordon Elliott Danny Gilligan |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Cheltenham Festival - The Fate of Favourites are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
James Banting
Tipster Competition Assistant
Andy Powell
Content Editor
