You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
The Fate of Favourites
Average Cheltenham Festival Favourite Odds
Many punters think that most short-priced favourites are good things and a lot of odds-on bets are near certainties.
Every punter has a different view on short-priced favourites, and some rarely back short-priced favourites on their own but occasionally do them in doubles and/or trebles.
The tables above and below show us how every short-priced favourite fared in their particular race.
Head over to our essential Cheltenham Free Bets page to see the latest bookmaker offers at the Cheltenham Festival.
The Overall Numbers
We have broken down in easy-to-fathom tables the fate of the favourites at the Cheltenham Festival between 2017 and 2026.
Hopefully, this will help us beat the leading bookmakers in the coming years at Prestbury Park.
1. Looking back over the past ten festivals, the outright favourites have a strike rate of 30.5% with 79 winners out of 259 runners.
| Year | Races | Fav Winners | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25 | 7 | 25.00% |
| 2025 | 27 | 8 | 29.63% |
| 2024 | 26 | 8 | 30.77% |
| 2023 | 25 | 7 | 28.57% |
| 2022 | 25 | 11 | 44.00% |
| 2021 | 28 | 8 | 28.57% |
| 2020 | 23 | 7 | 30.43% |
| 2019 | 26 | 9 | 34.62% |
| 2018 | 27 | 8 | 29.63% |
| 2017 | 27 | 6 | 22.22% |
Cheltenham or Aintree Favourites
2. In this table, you can view the breakdown for ALL Cheltenham favourites and how many won in each price band.
| Odds From | Odds To | Wins | Races |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2/9 | 10/11 | 23 | 48 |
| 1/1 | 2/1 | 26 | 62 |
| 85/40 | 11/4 | 8 | 39 |
| 3/1 | 4/1 | 15 | 68 |
| 9/2 | 11/2 | 6 | 31 |
| 13/2 | 8/1 | 1 | 11 |
3. Looking at the Cheltenham odds-on favourites, they won 48% of the time (23-48), which isn't great.
| Year | Odds On Favs | Odds On Fav Win | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| 2025 | 7 | 2 | 28.57% |
| 2024 | 7 | 5 | 71.43% |
| 2023 | 3 | 2 | 66.66% |
| 2022 | 5 | 3 | 60.00% |
| 2021 | 7 | 3 | 42.86% |
| 2020 | 6 | 1 | 16.67% |
| 2019 | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| 2018 | 6 | 4 | 66.67% |
| 2017 | 3 | 1 | 33.33% |
Odds On Cheltenham Festival Favourites
4. Looking at the bigger odds for outright favourites at Cheltenham, the 10-year stats (2017-2026) show only one festival horse 7/1 or bigger has won.
| Time | Date | Horse | Odds | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:40:00 | 11/03/2025 | Myretown | 7.50 | 1st |
| 14:50:00 | 15/03/2023 | Sa Fureur | 7.50 | Pulled Up |
| 14:50:00 | 15/03/2022 | Floueur | 8.50 | 10th |
| 14:30:00 | 17/03/2021 | Grand Roi | 7.00 | 12th |
| 14:50:00 | 13/03/2019 | Uradel | 7.50 | 7th |
| 14:10:00 | 16/03/2018 | Flying Tiger | 7.00 | 16th |
| 16:50:00 | 16/03/2018 | Flawless | 7.50 | 12th |
| 17:30:00 | 16/03/2018 | North Hill Harvey | 8.00 | Fell |
| 16:50:00 | 14/03/2018 | Nube Negra | 8.50 | 3rd |
| 14:10:00 | 16/03/2017 | Impulsive Star | 9.00 | 21st |
| 17:30:00 | 14/03/2017 | Foxtail Hill | 7.00 | Fell |
Biggest Priced Winning Festival Favourite
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
2026 Favourite Results
The 2026 Cheltenham Festival has the lowest number of odds-on favourites since the 2019 festival, with only two!
Majborough was well beaten in the Champion Chase, but Wodhooh won the Mares Hurdle; she was Gordon Elliott's only winner of the festival.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Champion Chase | Majborough 7/10 (1.83) | Mullins & Walsh |
| Mares Hurdle | Wodhooh 1/7 (1.83) | Elliott & Kennedy |
2025 Favourite Results
The 2025 Cheltenham Festival was not one to remember for the hot shots! Of the seven runners sent off as odds-on favourites, only two of those went on to success!
Those were Kopek Des Bordes in the Supreme and Lossiemouth in the Mares Hurdle, both for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs 2/9 (1.62) | Mullins & Townend |
| Champion Chase | Jonbon 2/8 (1.83) | Henderson & Boinville |
| Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Ballyburn 5/7 (1.57) | Mullins & Townend |
| Champion Hurdle | Constitution Hill F/7 (1.50) | Henderson & Boinville |
| Mares Hurdle | Lossiemouth 1/10 (1.67) | Mullins & Townend |
| Arkle Chase | Majborough 3/5 (1.50) | Mullins & Walsh |
| Supreme Novices Hurdle | Kopek Des Bordes 1/11 (1.67) | Mullins & Townend |
2024 Favourite Results
Outright favourites had a 31% strike rate in 2024. From 26 races, we saw a total of 8 of the favourites going on to win.
It was a bumper year for odds-on shots; we saw 7 of them, with 6 of those from the Willie Mullins yard, 5 of his went on to win, the only one defeated was another odds-on shot in the Champion Chase.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Champion Hurdle | State Man 1/8 (1.4) | Mullins & Townend |
| Mares Hurdle | Lossiemouth 1/11 (1.62) | Mullins & Townend |
| Gallagher Novices Hurdle | Ballyburn 1/7 (1.5) | Mullins & Townend |
| Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Fact To File 1/6 (1.62) | Mullins & Walsh |
| Champion Chase | El Fabiolo PU/6 (1.22) | Mullins & Townend |
| Mares Novices Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead 2/8 (1.83) | Elliott & Kennedy |
| Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs 1/11 (1.91) | Mullins & Townend |
2023 Favourite Results
Two of the three odds-on favourites won in 2023, with both Gaillard Du Mesnil and Constitution Hill winning at odd-on however, Might Potter was a beaten favourite in the Turners' Novices Chase, only finishing third.
Overall at the 2023 festival, the outright favourites won 7 of the 25 races in which there was an outright favourite, a strike rate of 28% and an LSP of -10.57.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Turners Novices Chase | Mighty Potter 3/7 (1.67) | Elliott & Russell |
| National Hunt Challenge Cup | Gaillard Du Mesnil 1/10 (1.91) | Mullins & Mullins |
| Champion Hurdle | Constitution Hill 1/7 (1.36) | Henderson & Boinville |
2022 Favourite Results
Not the best of times in 2022 for the odds-on favourites, with only three of the five being successful; both Galopin Des Champs and Shishkin failed to finish their races.
There were a total of 25 races which had an outright favourite, from those 11 (44%) went on to win their races for an LSP of +6.04.
| Race | Odds on Horses | Trainer- Jockey |
|---|---|---|
| Ryanair Chase | Allaho 1/7 (1.57) | Mullins & Townend |
| Turners Novices Chase | Galopin Des Champs F/4 (1.83) | Mullins & Townend |
| Champion Chase | Shishkin PU/7 (1.83) | Henderson & Boinville |
| Ballymore Novices Hurdle | Sir Gerhard 1/9 (1.73) | Mullins & Townend |
| Champion Hurdle | Honeysuckle 1/10 (1.73) | De Bromhead & Blackmore |
Schedule for Tuesday at the Cheltenham Festival
Prepare for the ROAR of the Cheltenham Festival on the opening day, when the tape goes up for the Supreme Novices Hurdle. The feature on Tuesday is the Champion Hurdle.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Cheltenham Supreme Novices Hurdle | Old Park Star (IRE) 6yo - 15/8 | Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville |
| 14:00 Cheltenham Arkle Challenge Trophy | Kargese (FR) 6yo - 7/1 | W P Mullins Danny Mullins |
| 14:40 Cheltenham Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle | Saratoga (IRE) 4yo - 10/1 | Padraig Roche Mark Walsh |
| 15:20 Cheltenham Ultima Handicap Chase | Johnnywho (IRE) 9yo - 18/1 | Jonjo & A J O'Neill Richie McLernon |
| 16:00 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle | Lossiemouth (FR) 7yo - 7/5 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:40 Cheltenham Festival Plate | Madara (FR) 7yo - 3/1 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 17:20 Cheltenham National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup | Holloway Queen (IRE) 6yo - 12/1 | Nicky Henderson James Bowen |
Schedule for Wednesday at the Cheltenham Festival
The dust has settled on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival, and now on to day two. The feature on the second day is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. We also have the cross country scheduled on Wednesday, a race like Marmite, some love it, and some don't!
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Cheltenham Turners Novices Hurdle | King Rasko Grey (FR) 6yo - 11/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:00 Cheltenham Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Kitzbuhel (FR) 6yo - 11/1 | W P Mullins Harry Cobden |
| 14:40 Cheltenham BetMGM Cup | Jingko Blue (FR) 7yo - 9/2 | Nicky Henderson James Bowen |
| 15:20 Cheltenham Cross Country Chase | Final Orders (GB) 10yo - 7/1 | Gavin Cromwell Conor Stone-Walsh |
| 16:00 Cheltenham Queen Mother Champion Chase | Il Etait Temps (FR) 8yo - 5/2 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:40 Cheltenham Johnny Henderson Grand Annual | Martator (FR) 9yo - 66/1 | Venetia Williams Charlie Deutsch |
| 17:20 Cheltenham Champion Bumper | The Mourne Rambler (IRE) 5yo - 15/2 | Noel Meade Colin Keane |
Schedule for Thursday at the Cheltenham Festival
Halfway through the festival and onto day three, where the Stayers Hurdle is the feature race. A hurdle race to test the stamina and see how can last up the Cheltenham hill.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Cheltenham Mares Novices Hurdle | White Noise (IRE) 6yo - 40/1 | Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls Tom Bellamy |
| 14:00 Cheltenham Novices Limited Handicap Chase | Meetmebythesea (IRE) 6yo - 9/1 | Ben Pauling Ben Jones |
| 14:40 Cheltenham Close Brothers Mares Hurdle | Wodhooh (FR) 6yo - 5/6 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 15:20 Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle | Home By The Lee (IRE) 11yo - 33/1 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien J J Slevin |
| 16:00 Cheltenham Ryanair Chase | Heart Wood (FR) 8yo - 9/2 | Henry De Bromhead Darragh O'Keeffe |
| 16:40 Cheltenham Pertemps Network Final | Supremely West (IRE) 8yo - 100/30 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 17:20 Cheltenham Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup | Ask Brewster (IRE) 7yo - 22/1 | Mrs C Williams Mr S Cotter |
Schedule for Friday at the Cheltenham Festival
The final day of the festival and the feature race that we have all been waiting for, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, in which the Irish have been fairly dominant in recent years.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle | Apolon De Charnie (FR) 4yo - 50/1 | W P Mullins Mr P W Mullins |
| 14:00 Cheltenham County Handicap Hurdle | Wilful (IRE) 7yo - 14/1 | Jonjo & A J O'Neill Jonjo O'Neill Jr |
| 14:40 Cheltenham Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase | Dinoblue (FR) 9yo - 11/8 | W P Mullins Mark Walsh |
| 15:20 Cheltenham Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle | Johnnys Jury (IRE) 6yo - 20/1 | Jamie Snowden Gavin Sheehan |
| 16:00 Cheltenham Cheltenham Gold Cup | Gaelic Warrior (GER) 8yo - 11/4 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:40 Cheltenham Festival Hunters Chase | Barton Snow (IRE) 9yo - 9/2 | J J O'Shea Mr Henry Crow |
| 17:20 Cheltenham Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle | Air Of Entitlement (IRE) 7yo - 10/1 | Henry De Bromhead Patrick M O'Brien |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Cheltenham Festival - The Fate of Favourites are Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
Darren Brett
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
