2022 Kincsem Handicap Preview, Trends & Analysis

2022 Kincsem Handicap Preview

A Class 2 handicap that is restricted to three-year-old runners, the Summer Vase Handicap that is currently known as the Kincsem Handicap for sponsorship reasons takes place in July of each year during the Glorious Goodwood festival with the race being run over a trip of one mile and two furlongs.

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Goodwood Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Mark Johnston trained Road To Love ridden by Richard Hills who has set the fastest winning time in the Kincsem Handicap, the runner won the race in a time of 2:02.81 that was set when winning the race in 2006. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer David Simcock and jockey Jamie Spencer with Good Omen who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 2:10.40 in the 2017 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Kincsem Handicap over the last 20 renewals:

2006 - Road To Love (2:02.81)
2015 - Gibeon (2:03.67)
2019 - Forest Of Dean (2:03.79)

How competitive is the Kincsem Handicap market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 113%. The race in 2007 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 132%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Kincsem Handicap, the over-round has been 122% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £122 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Kincsem Handicap next time out then you would have back a total of 3 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -10.50. Whilst we wait for the 2022 Kincsem Handicap remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

Kincsem Handicap Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Kincsem Handicap. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Kincsem Handicap as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year	Horse (Drawn)	Info
2021 2:07.89	Qaader 3yo 8-13 (7 of 11) 8/1	William Buick Mark Johnston
2020 2:06.12	Junkanoo 3yo 8-0 (6 of 11) 50/1	David Egan Gary Moore
2019 2:03.79	Forest Of Dean 3yo 8-4 (5 of 11) 4/1F	Harry Bentley John Gosden
2018 2:06.54	Communique 3yo 8-13 (4 of 12) 7/2F	Silvestre De Sousa Mark Johnston
2017 2:10.40	Good Omen 3yo 9-1 (11 of 13) 8/1	Jamie Spencer David Simcock
2016 2:05.49	Youre Hired 3yo 8-2 (14 of 15) 9/1	Martin Dwyer Amanda Perrett
2015 2:03.67	Gibeon 3yo 9-5 (14 of 14) 11/1	Richard Hughes Richard Hannon
2014 2:04.49	Lyn Valley 3yo 8-9 (6 of 14) 14/1	Joe Fanning Mark Johnston
2013 2:05.81	Broughton 3yo 8-1 (10 of 13) 8/1	Franny Norton Mark Johnston
2012 2:07.09	Grandeur 3yo 9-7 (16 of 18) 8/1	William Buick Jeremy Noseda

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kincsem Handicap have been based:

GB: 20 winners with an additional 46 placings from 281 runners
IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Kincsem Handicap Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Kincsem Handicap over the last 20 renewals is Mark Johnston who has won the race 6 times. Those 6 winners came from Road To Love (2006), Roman Republic (2009), Broughton (2013), Lyn Valley (2014), Communique (2018) & Qaader (2021). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Kincsem Handicap are John Gosden (4 wins) & Amanda Perrett (2 wins). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Kincsem Handicap, William Haggas (0-12), Richard Fahey (0-11) & Mick Channon (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Kincsem Handicap trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer	R-W-P	Win	EW
Mark Johnston	46-6-15	+0.75	+5.81
John Gosden	11-4-6	+15.00	+9.91
Amanda Perrett	9-2-3	+5.50	+3.07
Sir Michael Stoute	16-1-7	-11.00	-5.21
Richard Hannon	8-1-1	+4.00	-0.12
Gary Moore	4-1-1	+47.00	+27.00
David Simcock	4-1-1	+5.00	+2.00
William Muir	3-1-1	+4.00	+1.60
Jim Goldie	1-1-1	+7.00	+4.38
William Haggas	12-0-3	-12.00	-8.76

Kincsem Handicap Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Kincsem Handicap over the last 20 renewals with both William Buick & Martin Dwyer who have both won the race 3 times. William Buick winners have been with Beachfire (2010), Grandeur (2012) & Qaader (2021). Martin Dwyer winners have been with Enforcer (2005), Pipedreamer I (2007) & Youre Hired (2016). There are two jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Kincsem Handicap, Frankie Dettori has had a total of 11 rides to the race without recording any wins whilst Paul Hanagan has had 10 rides without a winner.

Here are some of the top Kincsem Handicap jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey	R-W-P	Win	EW
William Buick	9-3-4	+19.00	+11.43
Martin Dwyer	8-3-3	+15.50	+7.67
Joe Fanning	14-1-3	+1.00	+0.75
Franny Norton	11-1-4	-2.00	+3.63
Ryan Moore	10-1-6	-5.00	-1.14
Silvestre De Sousa	9-1-3	-4.50	-3.61
Jamie Spencer	6-1-1	+3.00	+0.00
J F Egan	5-1-2	+3.00	+2.88
David Egan	4-1-2	+47.00	+28.38
Frankie Dettori	11-0-2	-11.00	-8.62

2022 Kincsem Handicap Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,6,1,1,4,1,1,2,3,10,1,14,5,6,2,3,5,1,(1,3),10,(4,6)

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

20 / 20 (89%) - Never placed of bigger 25/1
20 / 20 (89%) - No bigger than 20/1 (LTO)
20 / 20 (89%) - Field of 6-16 (Debut)
19 / 20 (54%) - Within first 7 of market
19 / 20 (61%) - No bigger than 14/1
19 / 20 (75%) - Debut was no on Good ground
19 / 20 (79%) - Field of 7+ runners (LTO)
19 / 20 (88%) - Never been in a G1 or G2
18 / 19 (77%) - Best win not in a Class 3
18 / 20 (79%) - Previously ran over 1m2f+

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Goodwood racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Kincsem Handicap. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Kincsem Handicap by adding a tip on the race here.

Kincsem Handicap Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +15.50 is when runners were GB bred. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a Class 3 when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-61.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

2021: Winner in 7 (3,12) [11 Runners]
2020: Winner in 6 (9,5) [11 Runners]
2019: Winner in 5 (3,7) [11 Runners]
2018: Winner in 4 (2,6) [12 Runners]
2017: Winner in 11 (18,13) [13 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Kincsem Handicap is Newmarket (July), there has been a total number of 12 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (July) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Ascot, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 268 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 14 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Kincsem Handicap, that stallion is Cape Cross who has produced 2 winners (2015,2009).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kincsem Handicap despite multiple attempts:

Halling (0 Wins from 7 runners)
Dubai Destination (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Footstepsinthesand (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Kings Best (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Rock Of Gibraltar (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Junkanoo in 2020 when winning for Gary Moore at odds of 50/1 under the guidance of David Egan. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 7 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2022 Kincsem Handicap remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

2022 Kincsem Handicap Preview, Trends & Analysis