Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2024 Hong Kong Vase Preview
This Group 1 Hong Kong Vase is run in December of each year at Sha Tin racetrack and is part of the Hong Kong International Races series. Run over a distance of one mile and four furlongs (2,400m) it is the longest of the four international series races and is open to runners aged three or older. The race, from the four international series races, is probably the one where the European raiders have had the most success.
Hong Kong Vase Information:
Our dedicated Sha Tin tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Hong Kong Vase but will also have predictions for each meeting at Sha Tin throughout the season so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Sha Tin Racecourse section for links to these.
How competitive is the Hong Kong Vase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2014 when the race had an over-round of 121%. The race in 2016 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Hong Kong Vase, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £122 which is bet.
Hong Kong Vase Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Hong Kong Vase next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 8 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -1.25. Ahead of the 2024 Hong Kong Vase why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
When looking over the past 10 renewals, a time of 2:24.77 was set by Glory Vase in 2019, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Tomohito Ozeki and ridden by Joao Moreira. The slowest winning time was set in 2023 when Junko won in a time of 2:30.12, booked to ride was Maxime Guyon on this A Fabre trained runner.
These are the top three quickest-run Hong Kong Vase over the last 10 renewals:
- Glory Vase (2:24.77) in 2019
- Satono Crown (2:26.22) in 2016
- Highland Reel (2:26.23) in 2017
Hong Kong Vase Past Winners
Here are the Hong Kong Vase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Hong Kong Vase as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 2:30.12 | Junko (GB) 4yo 9-0 (7 of 8) 91/20 | Maxime Guyon A Fabre (FR) |
| 2022 2:27.53 | Win Marilyn (JPN) 5yo 8-10 (3 of 10) 50/9 | Damian Lane Takahisa Tezuka (JPN) |
| 2021 2:27.07 | Glory Vase (JPN) 6yo 9-0 (7 of 8) 17/20F | Joao Moreira Tomohito Ozeki (JPN) |
| 2020 2:27.21 | Mogul (GB) 3yo 8-9 (4 of 7) 8/5 | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2019 2:24.77 | Glory Vase (JPN) 4yo 9-0 (7 of 14) 36/5 | Joao Moreira Tomohito Ozeki (JPN) |
| 2018 2:26.56 | Exultant (IRE) 4yo 9-0 (10 of 14) 9/2 | Zac Purton A S Cruz (HK) |
| 2017 2:26.23 | Highland Reel (IRE) 5yo 9-0 (8 of 12) 43/20F | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2016 2:26.22 | Satono Crown (JPN) 4yo 9-0 (9 of 14) 195/10 | Joao Moreira Noriyuki Hori (JPN) |
| 2015 2:28.43 | Highland Reel (IRE) 3yo 8-9 (9 of 13) 5/1 | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2014 2:29.83 | Flintshire (GB) 4yo 9-0 (4 of 11) 11/8F | Maxime Guyon A Fabre (FR) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Hong Kong Vase have been based:
- JPN: 4 winners with an additional 5 placings from 18 runners
- IRE: 3 winners with an additional 3 placings from 16 runners
- FR: 2 winners with an additional 6 placings from 17 runners
- HK: 1 winner with an additional 4 placings from 40 runners
- GB: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 15 runners
- GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- NZ: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- SIN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- AUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Hong Kong Vase Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Hong Kong Vase over the last 10 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Highland Reel (2015 & 2017) and Mogul (2020). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Hong Kong Vase are A Fabre (2 wins) and Tomohito Ozeki (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Hong Kong Vase trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| A P O'Brien | 11-3-5 | +0.75 | -1.42 |
| A Fabre | 6-2-5 | +1.93 | +2.44 |
| Tomohito Ozeki | 3-2-3 | +7.05 | +4.60 |
| A S Cruz | 10-1-4 | -4.50 | -4.03 |
| Noriyuki Hori | 1-1-1 | +19.50 | +11.70 |
| Takahisa Tezuka | 1-1-1 | +5.56 | +3.34 |
| John Moore | 9-0-0 | -9.00 | -9.00 |
| C Fownes | 6-0-0 | -6.00 | -6.00 |
| J Size | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -0.20 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
Hong Kong Vase Jockey Statistics
There are two leading jockeys in the Hong Kong Vase over the last 10 renewals with both Joao Moreira and Ryan Moore who have both won the race three times. Joao Moreira winners have been with Satono Crown (2016) and Glory Vase (2019 & 2021). Ryan Moore winners have been with Highland Reel (2015 & 2017) and Mogul (2020). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Hong Kong Vase is Maxime Guyon (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Hong Kong Vase jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joao Moreira | 10-3-6 | +20.55 | +12.64 |
| Ryan Moore | 10-3-5 | +1.75 | -0.42 |
| Maxime Guyon | 5-2-3 | +2.93 | +1.49 |
| Zac Purton | 7-1-3 | -1.50 | -2.13 |
| Damian Lane | 4-1-2 | +2.56 | +1.30 |
| C Y Ho | 5-0-0 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Christophe Soumillon | 4-0-4 | -4.00 | +2.79 |
| William Buick | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -2.71 |
| Oisin Murphy | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| Silvestre De Sousa | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
2024 Hong Kong Vase Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 2, 2, 1, 5, 3, 2, 1, 5, 8
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 10 / 10 (33%) - Achieved an RPR of 118+ (Season)
- 10 / 10 (53%) - No bigger than 39/2
- 10 / 10 (60%) - Is not ARG/AUS/BRZ/CHI/FR/GER/NZ/SAF/USA bred
- 10 / 10 (61%) - Not in a G1/LST/Cl4-6 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (65%) - No bigger than 52/5 (Career Win)
- 10 / 10 (65%) - Within the first 7 of the market
- 10 / 10 (66%) - No bigger than 74/1 (Career)
- 10 / 10 (66%) - No bigger than 52/5 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (68%) - Furthest Won 1m3f - 1m4½f
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Fewer than 1 win (90 Days)
- 10 / 10 (73%) - No bigger than 28/1 (Career Place)
- 10 / 10 (77%) - No more than +2yrs (Vs Min Age)
- 10 / 10 (77%) - No bigger than 17/2 (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (77%) - Made 7 - 26 starts (Career)
- 10 / 10 (82%) - Won within last 8 starts
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Sha Tin racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Hong Kong Vase. How well do you know your horse racing? Are there certain types of races that you are unsure of? Why not take a look at this Types Of Horse Race article to familiarise yourself with the different types of racing, that is just one of many helpful horse racing articles in the OLBG Betting School.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Hong Kong Vase by adding a tip on the race here.
Hong Kong Vase Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +20.81 is when runners had 1 career place over the trip. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 career places in the class, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-29.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2023: Winner in 7 (2,1) [8 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 3 (5,4) [10 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 7 (3,5) [8 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 4 (5) [7 Runners]
- 2019: Winner in 7 (1,14) [14 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Hong Kong Vase are Munich, Tokyo, Santa Anita, Kyoto, Sha Tin, Nakayama, Hanshin, Keeneland, Del Mar and Moonee Valley, there has been a total number of 1 winner from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 9 winners from a total of 98 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 13 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Hong Kong Vase:
- Galileo (3 Wins)
- Deep Impact (2 Wins)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Satono Crown in 2016, winning for Noriyuki Hori at odds of 195/10 under the guidance of Joao Moreira. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2024 Hong Kong Vase why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today? All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Other Principal races at Sha Tin racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Sha Tin racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
Races in January (Hong Kong Triple Crown)
Races in February (Hong Kong Triple Crown)
Races in April
Races in May (Hong Kong Triple Crown)
Races in November
Races in December (Hong Kong International Races)
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