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2021 Hong Kong Vase Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Nov 19, 3:14pm Last Updated: Nov 19, 3:29pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 25 Views

2021 Hong Kong Vase Preview

This Group 1 Hong Kong Vase is run in December of each year at Sha Tin racetrack and is part of the Hong Kong International Races series. Run over a distance of one mile and four furlongs (2,400m) its the longest of the four international series races and is open to runners aged three or older. The race, from the four international series races, is probably the one where the European raiders have had the most success.

Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Sha Tin Betting Picks page to see which of those runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet.

Over the last 10 renewals, it was the Tomohito Ozeki trained Glory Vase ridden by Joao Moreira who has set the fastest winning time in the Hong Kong Vase, the runner won the race in a time of 2:24.77 that was set when winning the race in 2019. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer A Fabre and jockey Maxime Guyon with Flintshire who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 2:29.83 in the 2014 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Hong Kong Vase over the last 10 renewals:

  • 2019 - Glory Vase (2:24.77)
  • 2016 - Satono Crown (2:26.22)
  • 2017 - Highland Reel (2:26.23)

How competitive is the Hong Kong Vase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 118%. The race in 2013 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Hong Kong Vase, the over-round has been 122% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £122 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Hong Kong Vase next time out then you would have back a total of 2 winners. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -2.25. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

Hong Kong Vase Past Winners

Here are the Hong Kong Vase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Hong Kong Vase as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2020
2:27.21
Mogul (GB)
3yo 8-9 (4 of 7) 8/5
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2019
2:24.77
Glory Vase (JPN)
4yo 9-0 (7 of 14) 36/5
Joao Moreira
Tomohito Ozeki (JPN)
2018
2:26.56
Exultant (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (10 of 14) 9/2
Zac Purton
A S Cruz (HK)
2017
2:26.23
Highland Reel (IRE)
5yo 9-0 (8 of 12) 43/20F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2016
2:26.22
Satono Crown (JPN)
4yo 9-0 (9 of 14) 195/10
Joao Moreira
Noriyuki Hori (JPN)
2015
2:28.43
Highland Reel (IRE)
3yo 8-9 (9 of 13) 5/1
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2014
2:29.83
Flintshire (GB)
4yo 9-0 (4 of 11) 11/8F
Maxime Guyon
A Fabre (FR)
2013
2:27.29
Dominant (IRE)
5yo 9-0 (12 of 12) 33/1
Zac Purton
John Moore (HK)
2012
2:28.73
Red Cadeaux (GB)
6yo 9-0 (7 of 12) 10/1
Gerald Mosse
Ed Dunlop (GB)
2011
2:27.50
Dunaden (FR)
5yo 9-0 (3 of 13) 56/10
Craig A Williams
M Delzangles (FR)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Hong Kong Vase have been based:

  • IRE: 3 winners with an additional 2 placings from 13 runners
  • HK: 2 winners with an additional 5 placings from 39 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 7 placings from 24 runners
  • JPN: 2 winners with an additional 4 placings from 14 runners
  • GB: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 25 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
  • NZ: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • SIN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • AUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Hong Kong Vase Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Hong Kong Vase over the last 10 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Highland Reel (2015), Highland Reel (2017) & Mogul (2020).

Here are some of the top Hong Kong Vase trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 7-3-4 +4.75 +1.84
John Moore 11-1-1 +23.00 +9.80
A S Cruz 8-1-4 -2.50 -2.03
Ed Dunlop 5-1-2 +6.00 +4.00
A Fabre 5-1-4 -2.62 -0.63
M Delzangles 4-1-2 +2.60 +1.76
Noriyuki Hori 2-1-2 +18.50 +13.70
Tomohito Ozeki 1-1-1 +7.20 +4.32
A De Royer-Dupre 5-0-2 -5.00 -1.30
C Fownes 5-0-1 -5.00 -3.10

Hong Kong Vase Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Hong Kong Vase over the last 10 renewals is Ryan Moore who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Highland Reel (2015), Highland Reel (2017) & Mogul (2020). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Hong Kong Vase are Zac Purton (2 wins) & Joao Moreira (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Hong Kong Vase jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ryan Moore 9-3-5 +2.75 +1.84
Zac Purton 8-2-4 +31.50 +17.67
Joao Moreira 7-2-4 +21.70 +13.36
Maxime Guyon 5-1-3 -2.62 -1.29
Gerald Mosse 4-1-1 +7.00 +3.00
Craig A Williams 4-1-1 +2.60 +0.36
Christophe Soumillon 5-0-3 -5.00 +0.09
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire 4-0-1 -4.00 +0.10
Brett Prebble 4-0-1 -4.00 -2.10
Douglas Whyte 3-0-2 -3.00 +1.10

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,5,5,2,1,2,2,1,5,3,2

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

  • 10 / 10 (67%) - Never won off bigger than 11/1
  • 10 / 10 (72%) - No bigger than 33/1
  • 10 / 10 (72%) - Carried 120-128lbs (LTO)
  • 10 / 10 (74%) - Within first 9 of market
  • 10 / 10 (74%) - No bigger than 17/2 (Last Win)
  • 10 / 10 (79%) - Furthest won of 1m3f - 2m
  • 10 / 10 (79%) - Had 1-9 placings (Trip)
  • 10 / 10 (79%) - Field of 7-23 (Last Win)
  • 10 / 10 (80%) - Ran over 7f - 1m2f (Debut)
  • 10 / 10 (81%) - Made 7-32 starts (Career)
  • 10 / 10 (82%) - Won within last 8 starts
  • 10 / 10 (84%) - Had 2-9 wins (Career)
  • 10 / 10 (87%) - Had 4-19 placings (Career)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Sha Tin racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Hong Kong Vase. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Hong Kong Vase by adding a tip on the race here.

Hong Kong Vase Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +30.30 is when runners had 0 places in the past 90 days. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 win in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-35.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2020: Winner in 4 (5) [7 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 7 (1,14) [14 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 10 (12,8) [14 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 8 (1,7) [12 Runners]
  • 2016: Winner in 9 (10,4) [14 Runners]

The courses which have produced the most winners of the Hong Kong Vase are Sha Tin and Tokyo, there has been a total number of 2 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 107 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 15 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Hong Kong Vase, that stallion is Galileo who has produced 3 winners (2020,2017,2015).

Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Dominant in 2013 when winning for John Moore at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of Zac Purton. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there has been a total of 2 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2021 Hong Kong Vase. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

Other Principal races at Sha Tin racecourse

Here are some other notable races at Sha Tin racecourse for throughout the racing season which you may be interested in.

Races in November

Races in December

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