You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2025 Hong Kong Cup Preview
One of the four Hong Kong International Races that are run at Sha Tin is the Hong Kong Cup. This Group 1 is run in December of each year and is open to runners aged three or older. Run over a distance of one mile and two furlongs (2,000m), the race was introduced in 1988 and originally ran over one furlong shorter (1,800m).
The race was originally restricted to runners from either Hong Kong, Malaysia or Singapore, and then in 1989, horses from both Australia and New Zealand were invited. The invitations extended further to European-trained horses in 1990, and then a year later, the US-trained horses, in 1992, horses from both Canada and Japan were also permitted entry.
For sponsorship purposes, the 2025 renewal of the Hong Kong Cup will hold the title of 'Longines Hong Kong Cup'.
Hong Kong Cup Information:
Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Sha Tin tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal Races in Hong Kong section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Hong Kong Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2005 when the race had an over-round of 114%. The race in 2008 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 127%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Hong Kong Cup, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out ÂŁ100 for every ÂŁ122 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 Hong Kong Cup Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Hong Kong Cup Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the Hong Kong Cup Trend Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run Hong Kong Cup races over the last 20 renewals:
- Romantic Warrior (1:59.70) in 2022
- Normcore (2:00.50) in 2020
- Romantic Warrior (2:00.51) in 2024
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Hong Kong Cup next time out, then you would have backed a total of 5 winners. Backing all 16 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of +0.90. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Hong Kong Cup, see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:59.70 was set by Romantic Warrior in 2022, trained by C S Shum and ridden by James McDonald, which is the quickest time over that period. The slowest winning time was set in 2011 when California Memory won in a time of 2:04.57 for trainer A S Cruz, who booked Matthew Chadwick in the saddle.
Hong Kong Cup Past Winners
Here are the Hong Kong Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Hong Kong Cup are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 2:00.51 | Romantic Warrior (IRE) 6yo 9-0 (1 of 11) 1/10F | James McDonald C S Shum (HK) |
| 2023 2:02.00 | Romantic Warrior (IRE) 5yo 9-0 (7 of 11) 27/20F | James McDonald C S Shum (HK) |
| 2022 1:59.70 | Romantic Warrior (IRE) 4yo 9-0 (7 of 12) 17/20F | James McDonald C S Shum (HK) |
| 2021 2:00.66 | Loves Only You (JPN) 5yo 8-10 (4 of 12) 8/5F | Yuga Kawada Yoshito Yahagi (JPN) |
| 2020 2:00.50 | Normcore (JPN) 5yo 8-10 (3 of 8) 10/1 | Zac Purton Kiyoshi Hagiwara (JPN) |
| 2019 2:00.52 | Win Bright (JPN) 5yo 9-0 (8 of 8) 22/5 | Masami Matsuoka Yoshihiro Hatakeyama (JPN) |
| 2018 2:01.71 | Glorious Forever (GB) 4yo 9-0 (1 of 9) 68/10 | Silvestre De Sousa F C Lor (HK) |
| 2017 2:01.63 | Time Warp (GB) 4yo 9-0 (5 of 12) 61/20 | Zac Purton A S Cruz (HK) |
| 2016 2:00.95 | Maurice (JPN) 5yo 9-0 (8 of 12) 3/4F | Ryan Moore Noriyuki Hori (JPN) |
| 2015 2:00.60 | A Shin Hikari (JPN) 4yo 9-0 (12 of 13) 25/1 | Yutaka Take Masanori Sakaguchi (JPN) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Hong Kong Cup have been based:
- HK: 10 winners with an additional 14 placings from 102 runners
- JPN: 5 winners with an additional 12 placings from 38 runners
- FR: 2 winners with an additional 4 placings from 31 runners
- GB: 2 winners with an additional 3 placings from 19 runners
- SAF: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 3 placings from 14 runners
- GER: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 5 runners
- AUS: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 4 runners
- USA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
2024 Hong Kong Cup Replay
Hong Kong Cup Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Hong Kong Cup over the last 20 renewals is C S Shum, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Romantic Warrior (2022, 2023 & 2024).
Here are the Hong Kong Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| C S Shum | 6-3-3 | -0.70 | -1.62 |
| K W Lui | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Hiroyasu Tanaka | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| David A Hayes | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Hong Kong Cup Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Hong Kong Cup over the last 20 renewals is James McDonald, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Romantic Warrior (2022, 2023 & 2024).
Here are the Hong Kong Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| James McDonald (Romantic Warrior) | 5-3-3 | +0.30 | -0.62 |
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire (Rousham Park) | 4-1-2 | -0.45 | -0.79 |
| Christophe Soumillon (Quisisana) | 9-0-4 | -9.00 | -3.75 |
| Craig A Williams (Straight Arron) | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -3.50 |
| Maxime Guyon (Chancheng Glory) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
2025 Hong Kong Cup Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 8, 2, 4, 2, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 13, 1, 2, 2, (3, 4), 3, 1, 1, 1, 1
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 20 / 20 (64%) - No bigger than 25/1
- 20 / 20 (67%) - Ran in 9 - 25 races (Career)
- 20 / 20 (70%) - Break of 21 - 266 days (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (73%) - Not in BHR/CAN/FRA/DEU/IRL/ITA/NZL/SGP/ZAF/UAE (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (76%) - Won within last 5 starts
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Had 1 - 6 wins (Season)
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Had 3 - 16 wins (Career)
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Had 2 - 8 placings (Season)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Dam is not ARG/BRZ/GB/NZ/SAF/SWE bred
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Highest Won is not G3
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Had 5 - 19 placings (Career)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Within the first 9 of the market
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Carried 112 - 130lbs (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Placed within last 3 starts
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Beaten no more -6žl (Debut)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Sha Tin racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Hong Kong Cup. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over ÂŁ6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Hong Kong Cup by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Hong Kong Cup Trend Shortlist
Sha Tin will host the 2025 renewal of the Hong Kong Cup, which will be run at 8:40 am on Sunday, 14th December 2025, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Bellagio Opera (19/5)
- Hiroyuki Uemura (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
- Kazuo Yokoyama (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
Others: Quisisana (12/15), Romantic Warrior (12/15), Chancheng Glory (10/15), Straight Arron (10/15), Galen (9/15) and Rousham Park (9/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (6:02 pm Thursday 11th December 2025), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Romantic Warrior won the Hong Kong Jockey Club Cup last time out, and a total of 3 previous winners of that race from a total of 15 runners went on to win next time out, backing them all would have returned an LSP of -8.80.
Hong Kong Cup Trend Analysis
â The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +29.05, is when runners have had 3 wins in the past year.
â The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 season wins, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-49.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 1 (5,7) [11 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 7 (10,2) [11 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 7 (6,4) [12 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 4 (12,10) [12 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 3 (8,1) [8 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Hong Kong Cup is Sha Tin; there have been a total of 9 winners of this race who ran at Sha Tin last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Tokyo; there have been a total of 3 winners of this race who ran at Tokyo last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 16 winners from a total of 188 runners, while female runners have produced 4 winners from a total of 31 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Hong Kong Cup:
- Acclamation (3 Wins)
- Archipenko (2 Wins)
- Deep Impact (2 Wins)
- Highest Honor (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Hong Kong Cup despite multiple attempts:
- Galileo (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Danehill Dancer (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was A Shin Hikari in 2015, winning for Masanori Sakaguchi at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Yutaka Take. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 9 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Hong Kong Cup, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Route to the Hong Kong Cup
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Hong Kong Cup. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2024 - Romantic Warrior Sha Tin - 1st of 11 (1/10) | Hong Kong Jockey Club Cup |
| 2023 - Romantic Warrior Moonee Valley - 1st of 12 (13/5) | Ladbrokes Cox Plate |
| 2022 - Romantic Warrior Sha Tin - 1st of 9 (6/5) | Hong Kong Jockey Club Cup |
| 2021 - Loves Only You Del Mar - 1st of 12 (53/10) | Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf |
| 2020 - Normcore Hanshin - 16th of 18 (19/5) | Queen Elizabeth II Cup |
| 2019 - Win Bright Tokyo - 8th of 16 (149/1) | Tenno Sho (Autumn) |
| 2018 - Glorious Forever Sha Tin - 6th of 9 (33/10) | Hong Kong Jockey Club Cup |
| 2017 - Time Warp Sha Tin - 2nd of 8 (11/5) | Hong Kong Jockey Club Cup |
| 2016 - Maurice Tokyo - 1st of 15 (13/5) | Tenno Sho (Autumn) |
| 2015 - A Shin Hikari Tokyo - 9th of 18 (43/10) | Tenno Sho |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Hong Kong Cup Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team, looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Other Principal Races in Hong Kong
Here are some other notable races throughout Hong Kong, which take place during the racing season that we also have blogs for.
