Tenno Sho (Autumn) Preview, Trends & Analysis

We look at the G1 Autumn Tenno Sho ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 1m2f at Tokyo to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the Autumn Tenno Sho.

Tenno Sho (Autumn) Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Autumn Tenno Sho Preview

Scheduled to take place in October of each year at the Tokyo racecourse is the Autumn Tenno Sho, there are two versions of this race, this one and one which is run in the Spring at Kyoto. This G1 was inaugurated in 1937 with Happy Might winning the first-ever race, it is contested over a distance of 2,000m (1m2f) on the turf for runners aged three or older. Along with the Japan Cup and the Arima Kinen, this is considered the first leg of the Japanese Autumn Triple Crown.

Autumn Tenno Sho Content:

When looking over the past 10 renewals, a time of 1:56.20 was set by Almond Eye in 2019, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Sakae Kunieda and ridden by Christophe-Patrice Lemaire. The slowest winning time was set in 2017 when Kitasan Black won in a time of 2:08.30, booked to ride was Yutaka Take on this Hisashi Shimizu trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run Autumn Tenno Sho over the last 10 renewals:

  • 2019 - Almond Eye (1:56.20)
  • 2018 - Rey De Oro (1:56.80)
  • 2013 - Just A Way (1:57.50)

How competitive is the Autumn Tenno Sho market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2013 when the race had an over-round of 125%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 128%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Autumn Tenno Sho, the over-round has been 127%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £127 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Autumn Tenno Sho next time out then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +2.35.

Autumn Tenno Sho Past Winners

Here are the Autumn Tenno Sho past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Autumn Tenno Sho as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2022
1:57.50
Equinox (JPN)
3yo 8-11 (7 of 15) 8/5F
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire
Tetsuya Kimura (JPN)
2021
1:57.90
Efforia (JPN)
3yo 8-11 (5 of 16) 12/5
Takeshi Yokoyama
Yuichi Shikato (JPN)
2020
1:57.80
Almond Eye (JPN)
5yo 8-11 (9 of 12) 2/5F
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire
Sakae Kunieda (JPN)
2019
1:56.20
Almond Eye (JPN)
4yo 8-11 (2 of 16) 3/5F
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire
Sakae Kunieda (JPN)
2018
1:56.80
Rey De Oro (JPN)
4yo 9-2 (4 of 12) 21/10
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire
Kazuo Fujisawa (JPN)
2017
2:08.30
Kitasan Black (JPN)
5yo 9-2 (7 of 18) 21/10F
Yutaka Take
Hisashi Shimizu (JPN)
2016
1:59.30
Maurice (JPN)
5yo 9-2 (8 of 15) 13/5F
Ryan Moore
Noriyuki Hori (JPN)
2015
1:58.40
Lovely Day (JPN)
5yo 9-2 (8 of 18) 12/5F
Suguru Hamanaka
Yasutoshi Ikee (JPN)
2014
1:59.70
Spielberg (JPN)
5yo 9-2 (4 of 18) 10/1
Hiroshi Kitamura
Kazuo Fujisawa (JPN)
2013
1:57.50
Just A Way (JPN)
4yo 9-2 (7 of 17) 145/10
Yuichi Fukunaga
Naosuke Sugai (JPN)

Autumn Tenno Sho Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Autumn Tenno Sho over the last 10 renewals with both Kazuo Fujisawa & Sakae Kunieda who have both won the race 2 times. Kazuo Fujisawa winners have been with Spielberg (2014) & Rey De Oro (2018). Sakae Kunieda winners have been with Almond Eye (2019) & Almond Eye (2020). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Autumn Tenno Sho, Yasuo Tomomichi has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Autumn Tenno Sho trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Kazuo Fujisawa 11-2-3 +3.10 -2.24
Sakae Kunieda 3-2-2 +0.00 -0.46
Yasutoshi Ikee 14-1-1 -10.60 -11.80
Noriyuki Hori 9-1-3 -5.40 -4.81
Naosuke Sugai 2-1-1 +13.50 +6.25
Hisashi Shimizu 2-1-1 +1.10 +0.05
Tetsuya Kimura 2-1-1 +0.60 -0.04
Yuichi Shikato 1-1-1 +2.40 +1.20
Yasuo Tomomichi 11-0-0 -11.00 -11.00
Kazuya Nakatake 7-0-1 -7.00 -5.32

Autumn Tenno Sho Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Autumn Tenno Sho over the last 10 renewals is Christophe-Patrice Lemaire who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Rey De Oro (2018), Almond Eye (2019), Almond Eye (2020) & Equinox (2022).

Here are some of the top Autumn Tenno Sho jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire 9-4-6 -0.30 -1.24
Yuichi Fukunaga 9-1-3 +6.50 +1.89
Yutaka Take 8-1-1 -4.90 -5.95
Hiroshi Kitamura 3-1-1 +8.00 +3.00
Suguru Hamanaka 2-1-1 +1.40 +0.20
Ryan Moore 1-1-1 +2.60 +1.56
Takeshi Yokoyama 1-1-1 +2.40 +1.20
Yuga Kawada 9-0-4 -9.00 -4.17
Yasunari Iwata 9-0-2 -9.00 -8.00
Mirco Demuro 8-0-3 -8.00 -5.30

2023 Autumn Tenno Sho Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,2,3,1,1,1,10,1,1,2,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

  • 10 / 10 (32%) - Within first 5 of market
  • 10 / 10 (32%) - No bigger than 165/10
  • 10 / 10 (33%) - No bigger than 51/10 (Last Win)
  • 10 / 10 (53%) - Had 2-5 placings (Season)
  • 10 / 10 (57%) - No bigger than 103/10 (LTO)
  • 10 / 10 (66%) - Had 1-8 placings (Course)
  • 10 / 10 (67%) - No older than a 5yo
  • 10 / 10 (71%) - Made 2-9 starts (Course)
  • 10 / 10 (72%) - Beaten no more 2½l (Debut)
  • 10 / 10 (73%) - No bigger than 152/10 (Career Win)
  • 10 / 10 (77%) - Achieved a RPR of 108+ (LTO)
  • 10 / 10 (79%) - Had 1-5 placings (Trip)
  • 10 / 10 (84%) - Furthest ran 1m3f - 2m
  • 10 / 10 (84%) - Achieved a RPR of 102+ (Class)

You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts here.

Autumn Tenno Sho Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +5.70 is when runners were 1st in the betting market. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 career places at the track, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-52.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2022: Winner in 7 (3,5) [15 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 5 (1,9) [16 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 9 (6,7) [12 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 2 (9,5) [16 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 4 (9,10) [12 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Autumn Tenno Sho is Tokyo, there has been a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Tokyo last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 8 winners from a total of 140 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 17 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Autumn Tenno Sho:

  • King Kamehameha (2 Wins)
  • Lord Kanaloa (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Autumn Tenno Sho despite multiple attempts:

  • Stay Gold (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Jungle Pocket (0 Wins from 6 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Just A Way in 2013, winning for Naosuke Sugai at odds of 145/10 under the guidance of Yuichi Fukunaga. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post. If you are interested in other races at the Tokyo racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Japan Cup.

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