You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 Tokyo Yushun Preview
Established in 1932 and known as the 東京優駿 (Tōkyō Yūshun), but better known to those outside of Japan as the Japanese Derby, their equivalent to the Epsom Derby.
Restricted to three-year-old fillies and colts, the race is run at the Tokyo racetrack in either late May or early June each year over a distance of 2,400 metres.
The race acts as the second leg of the Japanese Triple Crown, the first leg being the Satsuki Sho, the Japanese equivalent of the English 2,000 Guineas, and the final leg, the equivalent of the English St Leger, the Kikuka Sho.
There are several races during the season in which runners can get entries into the derby based on performance; the top five from the Satsuki Sho, the top two from the Aoba Sho and the winner of the Principal Stakes all receive priority entry rights to the derby.
Tokyo Yushun Information:
You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal Races in Japan section for links to these.
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How competitive is the Tokyo Yushun market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022, when the race had an over-round of 126%. The race in 2021 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 129%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Tokyo Yushun, the over-round has been 127%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £127 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Tokyo Yushun Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Tokyo Yushun Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Tokyo Yushun races over the last 10 renewals:
- Do Deuce (2:21.90) in 2022
- Shahryar (2:22.50) in 2021
- Roger Barows (2:22.60) in 2019
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Tokyo Yushun next time out, then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 8 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of +0.40. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page to access the OLBG racing picks easily daily.
Over the last 10 renewals, it was Do Deuce, trained by Yasuo Tomomichi and ridden by Yutaka Take, who set the fastest winning time in the Tokyo Yushun. That runner won the race in a time of 2:21.90 in 2022. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Kazuo Fujisawa and jockey Christophe-Patrice Lemaire with Rey De Oro who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 2:26.90 in the 2017 renewal.
Japanese Derby Past Winners
Here are the Tokyo Yushun past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Tokyo Yushun are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 2:22.70 | Lovcen (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (17 of 18) 17/10F | Kohei Matsuyama Haruki Sugiyama (JPN) |
| 2025 2:23.70 | Croix Du Nord (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 18) 11/10F | Yuichi Kitamura Takashi Saito (JPN) |
| 2024 2:24.30 | Danon Decile (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 17) 46/1 | Norihiro Yokoyama Shogo Yasuda (JPN) |
| 2023 2:25.20 | Tastiera (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (12 of 18) 73/10 | Damian Lane Noriyuki Hori (JPN) |
| 2022 2:21.90 | Do Deuce (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 18) 16/5 | Yutaka Take Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
| 2021 2:22.50 | Shahryar (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (10 of 17) 107/10 | Yuichi Fukunaga Hideaki Fujiwara (JPN) |
| 2020 2:24.10 | Contrail (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 18) 2/5F | Yuichi Fukunaga Yoshito Yahagi (JPN) |
| 2019 2:22.60 | Roger Barows (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (1 of 18) 92/1 | Suguru Hamanaka Katsuhiko Sumii (JPN) |
| 2018 2:23.60 | Wagnerian (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (17 of 18) 115/10 | Yuichi Fukunaga Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
| 2017 2:26.90 | Rey De Oro (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (12 of 18) 43/10 | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Kazuo Fujisawa (JPN) |
2026 Tokyo Yushun Replay
Japanese Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Tokyo Yushun over the last 10 renewals is Yasuo Tomomichi, who has won the race twice, with those two winners coming from Wagnerian (2018) and Do Deuce (2022). One trainer has not had the best of times in the Tokyo Yushun; Yasutoshi Ikee has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording a win.
Here are some of the top Tokyo Yushun trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yasuo Tomomichi | 12-2-4 | +4.70 | -1.65 |
| Noriyuki Hori | 7-1-2 | +1.30 | -1.85 |
| Yoshito Yahagi | 7-1-2 | -5.60 | -5.30 |
| Takashi Saito | 5-1-2 | -2.90 | -2.95 |
| Hideaki Fujiwara | 4-1-2 | +7.70 | +2.85 |
| Haruki Sugiyama | 4-1-1 | -1.30 | -2.15 |
| Kazuo Fujisawa | 3-1-1 | +2.30 | +0.15 |
| Katsuhiko Sumii | 2-1-1 | +91.00 | +45.00 |
| Shogo Yasuda | 1-1-1 | +46.00 | +23.00 |
| Yasutoshi Ikee | 11-0-1 | -11.00 | -10.50 |
Japanese Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Tokyo Yushun over the last 10 renewals is Yuichi Fukunaga, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Wagnerian (2018), Contrail (2020) and Shahryar (2021). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Tokyo Yushun; Yuga Kawada has ridden 10 runners in the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Tokyo Yushun jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yuichi Fukunaga | 6-3-3 | +19.60 | +8.30 |
| Yutaka Take | 10-1-1 | -5.80 | -7.40 |
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire | 9-1-4 | -3.70 | -4.35 |
| Norihiro Yokoyama | 8-1-1 | +39.00 | +16.00 |
| Kohei Matsuyama | 8-1-2 | -5.30 | -5.65 |
| Suguru Hamanaka | 6-1-1 | +87.00 | +41.00 |
| Damian Lane | 6-1-2 | +2.30 | -0.85 |
| Yuichi Kitamura | 2-1-1 | +0.10 | -0.45 |
| Yuga Kawada | 10-0-2 | -10.00 | -9.00 |
| Mirco Demuro | 9-0-1 | -9.00 | -8.50 |
2027 Japanese Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 3, 6, 4, 1, 2, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 10 / 10 (48%) - No bigger than 21/2 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (62%) - Within the first 11 of the market
- 10 / 10 (66%) - Achieved an RPR of 106+ (Career)
- 10 / 10 (66%) - Achieved an RPR of 103+ (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - No bigger than 94/5 (Career Place)
- 10 / 10 (72%) - No bigger than 92/1
- 10 / 10 (72%) - Beaten no more -5¾l (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (74%) - Carried 121 - 123lbs (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (75%) - Ran in 2 - 4 races (Career)
- 10 / 10 (75%) - Furthest Placed 1m1f - 1m3f
- 10 / 10 (77%) - No bigger than 42/1 (Career)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Break of 22 - 153 days (Last Place)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Beaten no more -3l (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (80%) - Dam is not ARG/AUS/CAN/FR/GER/IRE/NZ bred
- 10 / 10 (81%) - No bigger than 94/5 (Debut)
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Japanese Derby Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +88.10, is when runners carried 123lbs on debut.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career start on the going, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-48.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 17 (13,5) [18 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 13 (17,2) [18 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 5 (15,13) [17 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 12 (5,11) [18 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 13 (18,3) [18 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Tokyo Yushun is Nakayama; there have been a total of 8 winners of this race who ran at Nakayama last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 176 runners, while female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 2 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Tokyo Yushun; that stallion, Deep Impact, has produced 4 winners (2021,2020,2019,2018).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Tokyo Yushun despite multiple attempts:
- Kizuna (0 Wins from 13 runners)
- Duramente (0 Wins from 9 runners)
- Rulership (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Lord Kanaloa (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Harbinger (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Roger Barows in 2019, winning for Katsuhiko Sumii at odds of 92/1 under the guidance of Suguru Hamanaka. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Tokyo Yushun Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Other Principal Races in Japan
Here are some other notable races throughout Japan which take place during the racing season that we also have blogs for.
