Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2026 Tokyo Yushun Preview
Established in 1932 and known as the 東京優駿 (Tōkyō Yūshun), but better known to those outside of Japan as the Japanese Derby, their equivalent to the Epsom Derby.
Restricted to three-year-old fillies and colts, the race is run at the Tokyo racetrack in either late May or early June each year over a distance of 2,400 metres.
The race acts as the second leg of the Japanese Triple Crown, the first leg being the Satsuki Sho, the Japanese equivalent of the English 2,000 Guineas, and the final leg, the equivalent of the English St Leger, the Kikuka Sho.
There are several races during the season in which runners can get entries into the derby based on performance; the top five from the Satsuki Sho, the top two from the Aoba Sho and the winner of the Principal Stakes all receive priority entry rights to the derby.
Tokyo Yushun Information:
You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal Races in Japan section for links to these.
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How competitive is the Tokyo Yushun market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 126%. The race in 2021 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 129%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Tokyo Yushun, the over-round has been 127%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £127 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Tokyo Yushun Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Tokyo Yushun Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Tokyo Yushun races over the last 10 renewals:
- Do Deuce (2:21.90) in 2022
- Shahryar (2:22.50) in 2021
- Roger Barows (2:22.60) in 2019
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Tokyo Yushun next time out, then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 8 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -0.56. Remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2017 renewal when Rey De Oro from Kazuo Fujisawa under the guidance of Christophe-Patrice Lemaire, won in a time of 2:26.90, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Do Deuce, trained by Yasuo Tomomichi and ridden by Yutaka Take set the quickest time of 2:21.90 in the 2022 renewal.
Japanese Derby Past Winners
Here are the Tokyo Yushun past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Tokyo Yushun are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 (3.1m) 2:23.70 | Croix Du Nord (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 18) 11/10F | Yuichi Kitamura Takashi Saito (JPN) |
| 2024 (3.41m) 2:24.30 | Danon Decile (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 17) 46/1 | Norihiro Yokoyama Shogo Yasuda (JPN) |
| 2023 (3.84m) 2:25.20 | Tastiera (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (12 of 18) 73/10 | Damian Lane Noriyuki Hori (JPN) |
| 2022 (2.69m) 2:21.90 | Do Deuce (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 18) 16/5 | Yutaka Take Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
| 2021 (2.97m) 2:22.50 | Shahryar (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (10 of 17) 107/10 | Yuichi Fukunaga Hideaki Fujiwara (JPN) |
| 2020 (2.9m) 2:24.10 | Contrail (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 18) 2/5F | Yuichi Fukunaga Yoshito Yahagi (JPN) |
| 2019 (2.98m) 2:22.60 | Roger Barows (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (1 of 18) 92/1 | Suguru Hamanaka Katsuhiko Sumii (JPN) |
| 2018 (2.76m) 2:23.60 | Wagnerian (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (17 of 18) 115/10 | Yuichi Fukunaga Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
| 2017 (2.91m) 2:26.90 | Rey De Oro (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (12 of 18) 43/10 | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Kazuo Fujisawa (JPN) |
| 2016 (2.4m) 2:24.00 | Makahiki (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (3 of 18) 3/1 | Yuga Kawada Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
2025 Tokyo Yushun Replay
Japanese Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Tokyo Yushun over the last 10 renewals is Yasuo Tomomichi, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Makahiki (2016), Wagnerian (2018) and Do Deuce (2022). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Tokyo Yushun, Yasutoshi Ikee has sent a total of 13 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Tokyo Yushun trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yasuo Tomomichi | 12-3-5 | +8.70 | +0.85 |
| Noriyuki Hori | 8-1-2 | +0.30 | -2.85 |
| Yoshito Yahagi | 7-1-2 | -5.60 | -5.30 |
| Katsuhiko Sumii | 4-1-1 | +89.00 | +43.00 |
| Hideaki Fujiwara | 4-1-2 | +7.70 | +2.85 |
| Takashi Saito | 4-1-1 | -1.90 | -2.45 |
| Kazuo Fujisawa | 3-1-1 | +2.30 | +0.15 |
| Shogo Yasuda | 1-1-1 | +46.00 | +23.00 |
| Yasutoshi Ikee | 13-0-2 | -13.00 | -12.00 |
| Tetsuya Kimura | 7-0-1 | -7.00 | -6.50 |
Japanese Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Tokyo Yushun over the last 10 renewals is Yuichi Fukunaga, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Wagnerian (2018), Contrail (2020) and Shahryar (2021). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Tokyo Yushun, Mirco Demuro has ridden 10 runners in the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Tokyo Yushun jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yuichi Fukunaga | 7-3-3 | +18.60 | +7.30 |
| Yutaka Take | 10-1-1 | -5.80 | -7.40 |
| Yuga Kawada | 10-1-2 | -6.00 | -7.00 |
| Norihiro Yokoyama | 9-1-1 | +38.00 | +15.00 |
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire | 9-1-4 | -3.70 | -4.35 |
| Suguru Hamanaka | 6-1-1 | +87.00 | +41.00 |
| Damian Lane | 5-1-2 | +3.30 | +0.15 |
| Yuichi Kitamura | 2-1-1 | +0.10 | -0.45 |
| Mirco Demuro | 10-0-1 | -10.00 | -9.50 |
| Keita Tosaki | 8-0-3 | -8.00 | -6.50 |
2026 Japanese Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 2, 4, 2, 2, 1
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Oost in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 10 / 10 (49%) - No bigger than 21/2 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (62%) - Within the first 11 of the market
- 10 / 10 (69%) - Achieved an RPR of 103+ (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (70%) - No bigger than 92/1
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Achieved an RPR of 106+ (Career)
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Ran in 2 - 4 races (Career)
- 10 / 10 (74%) - Furthest Placed 1m1f - 1m3f
- 10 / 10 (74%) - Beaten no more -5¾l (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (75%) - Not on SFT/GD/STD (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Carried 121 - 123lbs (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - No bigger than 42/1 (Career)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Break of 22 - 153 days (Last Place)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Beaten no more -3l (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (79%) - Ran over 1m1f - 1m3f (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (80%) - Dam is not ARG/AUS/FR/GER/IRE/NZ bred
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Japanese Derby Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +126.20, is when runners had 2 career starts on the going.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career start on the going, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-48.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 13 (17,2) [18 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 5 (15,13) [17 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 12 (5,11) [18 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 13 (18,3) [18 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 10 (1,11) [17 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Tokyo Yushun is Nakayama; there have been a total of 8 winners of this race who ran at Nakayama last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with the Male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 176 runners, whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 2 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Tokyo Yushun; that stallion Deep Impact, has produced 5 winners (2021,2020,2019,2018,2016).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Tokyo Yushun despite multiple attempts:
- Kizuna (0 Wins from 11 runners)
- Duramente (0 Wins from 9 runners)
- Rulership (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Harbinger (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Lord Kanaloa (0 Wins from 6 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Roger Barows in 2019, winning for Katsuhiko Sumii at odds of 92/1 under the guidance of Suguru Hamanaka. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 2 winning favourites in the race. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Route to the Tokyo Yushun
Many trainers will target races to use as prep races before coming to the Tokyo Yushun, these are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Croix Du Nord Nakayama - 2nd of 18 (1/2) | Satsuki Sho |
| 2024 - Danon Decile Nakayama - 1st of 14 (23/2) | Keisei Hai |
| 2023 - Tastiera Nakayama - 2nd of 18 (8/1) | Satsuki Sho |
| 2022 - Do Deuce Nakayama - 3rd of 18 (39/10) | Satsuki Sho |
| 2021 - Shahryar Hanshin - 1st of 9 (29/10) | Mainichi Hai |
| 2020 - Contrail Nakayama - 1st of 18 (27/10) | Satsuki Sho |
| 2019 - Roger Barows Kyoto - 2nd of 14 (26/5) | Kyoto Shimbun Hai |
| 2018 - Wagnerian Nakayama - 7th of 16 (5/2) | Satsuki Sho |
| 2017 - Rey De Oro Nakayama - 5th of 18 (52/5) | Satsuki Sho |
| 2016 - Makahiki Nakayama - 2nd of 18 (37/10) | Satsuki Sho |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Japanese Derby Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
Darren Brett
Tipster Competition Manager
Andy Powell
Content Editor
