Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Japanese Derby Preview
Established in 1932 and known as the 東京優駿 (Tōkyō Yūshun) but better known to those outside of Japan as the Japanese Derby, their equivalent to the Epsom Derby. Restricted to three-year-old fillies and colts, the race is run at Tokyo racetrack in either late May or early June each year over a distance of 2,400 metres.
The race acts as the second leg of the Japanese Triple Crown, the first leg being the Satsuki Sho, the Japanese equivalent of the English 2,000 Guineas, and the final leg, the equivalent of the English St Leger, the Kikuka Sho.
There are several races during the season in which runners can get entries into the derby based on performance, the top five from the Satsuki Sho, the top two from the Aoba Sho and the winner of the Principal Stakes all receive priority entry rights to the derby.
Japanese Derby Information:
You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races in Japan section for links to these.
How competitive is the Japanese Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 126%. The race in 2021 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 129%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Japanese Derby, the over-round has been 127%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £127 which is bet.
Japanese Derby Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Japanese Derby next time out then you would have backed a total of 5 winners. Backing all 8 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +1.54. Remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2017 renewal when Rey De Oro from Kazuo Fujisawa under the guidance of Christophe-Patrice Lemaire, won in a time of 2:26.90, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Do Deuce, trained by Yasuo Tomomichi and ridden by Yutaka Take set the quickest time of 2:21.90 in the 2022 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Japanese Derby over the last 10 renewals:
- Do Deuce (2:21.90) in 2022
- Shahryar (2:22.50) in 2021
- Roger Barows (2:22.60) in 2019
Japanese Derby Past Winners
Here are the Japanese Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Japanese Derby as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 2:24.30 | Danon Decile (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 17) 46/1 | Norihiro Yokoyama Shogo Yasuda (JPN) |
| 2023 2:25.20 | Tastiera (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (12 of 18) 73/10 | Damian Lane Noriyuki Hori (JPN) |
| 2022 2:21.90 | Do Deuce (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 18) 16/5 | Yutaka Take Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
| 2021 2:22.50 | Shahryar (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (10 of 17) 107/10 | Yuichi Fukunaga Hideaki Fujiwara (JPN) |
| 2020 2:24.10 | Contrail (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 18) 2/5F | Yuichi Fukunaga Yoshito Yahagi (JPN) |
| 2019 2:22.60 | Roger Barows (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (1 of 18) 92/1 | Suguru Hamanaka Katsuhiko Sumii (JPN) |
| 2018 2:23.60 | Wagnerian (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (17 of 18) 115/10 | Yuichi Fukunaga Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
| 2017 2:26.90 | Rey De Oro (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (12 of 18) 43/10 | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Kazuo Fujisawa (JPN) |
| 2016 2:24.00 | Makahiki (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (3 of 18) 3/1 | Yuga Kawada Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
| 2015 2:23.20 | Duramente (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (14 of 18) 9/10F | Mirco Demuro Noriyuki Hori (JPN) |
Japanese Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Japanese Derby over the last 10 renewals is Yasuo Tomomichi who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Makahiki (2016), Wagnerian (2018) and Do Deuce (2022). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Japanese Derby is Noriyuki Hori (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Japanese Derby, Yasutoshi Ikee has sent a total of 13 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Japanese Derby trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yasuo Tomomichi | 11-3-4 | +9.70 | +1.35 |
| Noriyuki Hori | 9-2-4 | +1.20 | -1.90 |
| Yoshito Yahagi | 7-1-2 | -5.60 | -5.30 |
| Katsuhiko Sumii | 4-1-1 | +89.00 | +43.00 |
| Hideaki Fujiwara | 4-1-2 | +7.70 | +2.85 |
| Kazuo Fujisawa | 3-1-1 | +2.30 | +0.15 |
| Shogo Yasuda | 1-1-1 | +46.00 | +23.00 |
| Yasutoshi Ikee | 13-0-3 | -13.00 | -11.50 |
| Tetsuya Kimura | 7-0-1 | -7.00 | -6.50 |
| Sakae Kunieda | 7-0-1 | -7.00 | -6.50 |
Japanese Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Japanese Derby over the last 10 renewals is Yuichi Fukunaga who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Wagnerian (2018), Contrail (2020) and Shahryar (2021).
Here are some of the top Japanese Derby jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yuichi Fukunaga | 8-3-3 | +17.60 | +6.30 |
| Yutaka Take | 10-1-1 | -5.80 | -7.40 |
| Yuga Kawada | 10-1-2 | -6.00 | -7.00 |
| Mirco Demuro | 10-1-2 | -8.10 | -8.05 |
| Norihiro Yokoyama | 9-1-1 | +38.00 | +15.00 |
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire | 9-1-4 | -3.70 | -4.35 |
| Suguru Hamanaka | 5-1-1 | +88.00 | +42.00 |
| Damian Lane | 4-1-2 | +4.30 | +1.15 |
| Keita Tosaki | 7-0-3 | -7.00 | -5.50 |
| Hironobu Tanabe | 7-0-1 | -7.00 | -6.50 |
2025 Japanese Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 2, 4, 2, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 10 / 10 (49%) - No bigger than 21/2 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (58%) - No bigger than 21/2 (Career Place)
- 10 / 10 (62%) - Within the first 11 of the market
- 10 / 10 (62%) - Achieved an RPR of 106+ (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - No bigger than 92/1
- 10 / 10 (72%) - Furthest Placed 1m1f - 1m3f
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Ran in 2 - 4 races (Career)
- 10 / 10 (74%) - Beaten no more -5¾l (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (75%) - Not on SFT/GD/STD (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (77%) - Achieved an RPR of 106+ (Career)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - No bigger than 42/1 (Career)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Break of 22 - 153 days (Last Place)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Beaten no more -3l (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Carried 121 - 123lbs (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (88%) - Off a break of 22 - 132 days
Maybe you are looking to back something in this race on the tote, but you are not sure of the process or how the tote works, No problem! We have an article which is dedicated to The Tote for you to read which explains everything you need to know! Be sure to check out the other articles in the OLBG Betting School.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts here.
Japanese Derby Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +127.10 is when runners had 2 career starts on the going. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career start on the going, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-50.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 5 (15,13) [17 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 12 (5,11) [18 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 13 (18,3) [18 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 10 (1,11) [17 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 5 (12,6) [18 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Japanese Derby is Nakayama, there has been a total number of 8 winners of this race who ran at Nakayama last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 176 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 2 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Japanese Derby:
- Deep Impact (5 Wins)
- King Kamehameha (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Japanese Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Kizuna (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Rulership (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Harbinger (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Lord Kanaloa (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Screen Hero (0 Wins from 6 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Roger Barows in 2019, winning for Katsuhiko Sumii at odds of 92/1 under the guidance of Suguru Hamanaka. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there have been 2 winning favourites in the race. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Other Principal races at Tokyo Racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Tokyo racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in that we currently cover for blogs looking at past winners, trainer and jockey records and the race trends.
Races in May
If you are looking for races in May then we have blogs for the NHK Mile Cup which is a Group 1 that is contested over 1m & the 1m4f Yushun Himba which is a Group 1 race.
Races in October
If you are looking for races in October then we have a blog for the Tenno Sho (Autumn) which is a Group 1 that is contested over 1m2f.
Races in November
If you are looking for races in November then we have a blog for the 1m4f Japan Cup which is a Group 1 race.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Japanese Derby Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
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