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2021 Japan Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Oct 8, 10:35am Last Updated: Oct 8, 10:36am Horse Racing 0 Comments 17 Views

2021 Japan Cup Preview

Scheduled to take place in November of each year at the Tokyo racecourse is the Japan Cup, one of the most prestigious races to take place in Japan and attracts plenty of interest from around the world. The race features on the last Sunday of November each year and is a Grade 1 race that is contested over a distance of one mile and four furlongs (2,400m) in which runners aged three or older can enter.

Established in 1981, the race was originally restricted which meant there were no European entries into the race but that was scraped and in 1986, Clive Brittain's Jupiter Island became the first British raider to win the race. Both Singspiel (1996) and Pilsudski (1997) won the race giving Sir Michael Stoute back-to-back winners in the race, he is only one of two trainers to do so, Sei Ishizaka (2012-13) was the other. The only other British success came in 2005 when Frankie rode Alkaased to success for Luca Cumani.

Sucess for any raider has been hard to come by, a Japanese trained runner has now won the race every year since 2006 and all bar one of those (Admire Moon in 2007 was UAE owned) were also Japanese owned runners. There has been plenty of success for European jockeys, Christophe Lemaire is a three-time winner including in both 2018 & 2020, Frankie Dettori is also a three-time winner with his last coming in 2005, Oisin Murphy won the race in 2019 and Ryan Moore won it in 2013.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 2:12.20 was set by Falbrav in 2002, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by L D'Auria and ridden by Frankie Dettori. The slowest winning time was set in 2003 when Tap Dance City won in a time of 2:28.70, booked to ride was Tetsuzo Sato on this Shozo Sasaki trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Japan Cup over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2002 - Falbrav (2:12.20)
  • 2018 - Almond Eye (2:20.60)
  • 2005 - Alkaased (2:22.10)

How competitive is the Japan Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2003 when the race had an over-round of 8%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 130%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Japan Cup, the over-round has been 120% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £120 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Japan Cup next time out then you would have back a total of 3 winners. Backing all 17 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -11.60. Remember to use the racing predictions to find tips every single day for horse racing!

Japan Cup Past Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Japan Cup. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Japan Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2020
2:23.00
Almond Eye
5yo 8-9 (2 of 15) 6/5F
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire
Sakae Kunieda
2019
2:25.90
Suave Richard
5yo 9-0 (5 of 15) 41/10
Oisin Murphy
Yasushi Shono
2018
2:20.60
Almond Eye
3yo 8-5 (1 of 14) 2/5F
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire
Sakae Kunieda
2017
2:23.70
Cheval Grand
5yo 9-0 (1 of 17) 123/10
Hugh Bowman
Yasuo Tomomichi
2016
2:25.80
Kitasan Black
4yo 9-0 (1 of 17) 14/5F
Yutaka Take
Hisashi Shimizu
2015
2:24.70
Shonan Pandora
4yo 8-9 (15 of 18) 41/5
Kenichi Ikezoe
Tomokazu Takano
2014
2:23.10
Epiphaneia
4yo 9-0 (4 of 18) 79/10
Christophe Soumillon
Katsuhiko Sumii
2013
2:26.10
Gentildonna
4yo 8-9 (7 of 17) 11/10F
Ryan Moore
Sei Ishizaka
2012
2:23.10
Gentildonna
3yo 8-5 (15 of 17) 56/10
Yasunari Iwata
Sei Ishizaka
2011
2:24.20
Buena Vista
5yo 8-9 (2 of 16) 12/5
Yasunari Iwata
Hiroyoshi Matsuda

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Japan Cup have been based:

  • JPN: 18 winners with an additional 38 placings from 244 runners
  • GB: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 25 runners
  • ITY: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 17 runners
  • USA: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 16 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 10 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 7 runners
  • HK: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 5 runners
  • CAN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • AUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Japan Cup Trainer Statistics

There are multiple leading trainers in the Japan Cup over the last 20 renewals with all of Katsuhiko Sumii, Hiroyoshi Matsuda, Sakae Kunieda & Sei Ishizaka having all won the race 2 times. Katsuhiko Sumii winners have been with Vodka (2009) & Epiphaneia (2014). Hiroyoshi Matsuda winners have been with Admire Moon (2007) & Buena Vista (2011). Sakae Kunieda winners have been with Almond Eye (2018) & Almond Eye (2020). Sei Ishizaka winners have been with Gentildonna (2012) & Gentildonna (2013). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Japan Cup, Yasutoshi Ikee has sent a total of 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Japan Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Katsuhiko Sumii 17-2-8 -4.50 -6.75
Hiroyoshi Matsuda 9-2-5 +5.30 +2.17
Sakae Kunieda 6-2-3 -2.40 -1.59
Sei Ishizaka 5-2-2 +3.70 +0.35
Kazuo Fujisawa 16-1-6 -13.30 -11.65
Yasuo Tomomichi 13-1-3 +0.30 -4.52
Kojiro Hashiguchi 12-1-3 -3.20 -6.10
Shozo Sasaki 4-1-1 +9.80 +3.40
Yasuo Ikee 4-1-1 -2.70 -2.82
Yuichi Shikato 3-1-1 +38.00 +18.00

Japan Cup Jockey Statistics

There are multiple leading jockeys in the Japan Cup over the last 20 renewals with all of Yutaka Take, Christophe-Patrice Lemaire & Yasunari Iwata having all won the race 3 times. Yutaka Take winners have been with Deep Impact (2006), Rose Kingdom (2010) & Kitasan Black (2016). Christophe-Patrice Lemaire winners have been with Vodka (2009), Almond Eye (2018) & Almond Eye (2020). Yasunari Iwata winners have been with Admire Moon (2007), Buena Vista (2011) & Gentildonna (2012). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Japan Cup are Olivier Peslier (2 wins) & Frankie Dettori (2 wins). There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Japan Cup, Norihiro Yokoyama (0-13), Hiroyuki Uchida (0-10) & Masayoshi Ebina (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides to the race.

Here are some of the top Japan Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Yutaka Take 17-3-5 -3.10 -7.52
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire 16-3-6 -8.80 -9.24
Yasunari Iwata 12-3-5 +8.90 +2.47
Olivier Peslier 8-2-5 -1.10 -1.73
Frankie Dettori 4-2-3 +27.10 +13.90
Mirco Demuro 14-1-3 +27.00 +8.55
Ryan Moore 12-1-2 -9.90 -9.95
Christophe Soumillon 6-1-2 +2.90 -0.55
Kenichi Ikezoe 5-1-2 +4.20 +0.60
Tetsuzo Sato 3-1-1 +10.80 +4.40

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,2,3,(2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18),1,3,1,3,2,1,2,6,2,1,4,3,1,3,1,11,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

  • 20 / 20 (71%) - Furthest won between 1m3f - 2m
  • 20 / 20 (73%) - Top 3 finish within last 3
  • 20 / 20 (74%) - Beaten no more 5¾l (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Had won on turf
  • 20 / 20 (92%) - Is not a gelding
  • 19 / 20 (68%) - No older than race ave age
  • 19 / 20 (71%) - Made 3-6 starts (Season)
  • 19 / 20 (72%) - No older than a 5yo
  • 19 / 20 (77%) - Ideally JPN or USA bred
  • 19 / 20 (79%) - Ran on GD or FM ground (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (83%) - Had contested over the trip
  • 18 / 20 (35%) - No bigger than 13/1
  • 17 / 20 (34%) - Within first 5 of the market
  • 17 / 20 (55%) - Previously won a G1

If you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today!

Japan Cup Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +17.80 is when runners had 1 win in the past 180 days. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 season places, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-50.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2020: Winner in 2 (6,5) [15 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 5 (1,2) [15 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 1 (8,11) [14 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 1 (2,4) [17 Runners]
  • 2016: Winner in 1 (12,17) [17 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Japan Cup is Tokyo, there has been a total number of 10 winners of this race who ran at Tokyo last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Kyoto, there has been a total number of 7 winners of this race who ran at Kyoto last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 13 winners from a total of 284 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 7 winners from a total of 45 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Japan Cup:

  • Deep Impact (3 Wins)
  • Hearts Cry (2 Wins)
  • Lord Kanaloa (2 Wins)
  • Sunday Silence (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Japan Cup despite multiple attempts:

  • Jungle Pocket (0 Wins from 16 runners)
  • Stay Gold (0 Wins from 15 runners)
  • Dance In The Dark (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Montjeu (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Neo Universe (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Zagreb (0 Wins from 6 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Screen Hero in 2008 when winning for Yuichi Shikato at odds of 40/1 under the guidance of Mirco Demuro. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 7 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters to see which predictions they are making for today's racing. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

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