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2027 Satsuki Sho Preview
Run at the Nakayama Racecourse, the Satsuki Shō (皐月賞) is the Japanese equivalent of the English 2000 Guineas. Like the English version, the race is restricted to 3-year-olds (colts and fillies only); however, it is over the longer trip of 2,000m, which is about two furlongs longer than the English version.
The race was first run in 1939, and there are three races which serve as trials for the race: the Yayoi Sho and Spring Stakes, which are both Grade 2 races run here at Nakayama and also the Listed Wakaba Stakes, which is run at Hanshin.
The race is normally run a week after the Oka Sho, which is run at the Hanshin racecourse and is the equivalent of the English 1000 Guineas.
Satsuki Sho Information:
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Satsuki Sho market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2018, when the race had an over-round of 126%. The race in 2017 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 127%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Satsuki Sho, the over-round has been 127%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £127 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Satsuki Sho Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Satsuki Sho Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Satsuki Sho races over the last 10 renewals:
- Lovcen (1:56.50) in 2026
- Museum Mile (1:57.00) in 2025
- Justin Milano (1:57.10) in 2024
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Satsuki Sho next time out, then you would have backed a total of 1 winner. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -7.60. See which other runners are being backed today on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 10 renewals, it was Lovcen, trained by Haruki Sugiyama and ridden by Kohei Matsuyama, who set the fastest winning time in the Satsuki Sho. That runner won the race in a time of 1:56.50 in 2026. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Hideaki Fujiwara and jockey Keita Tosaki with Epoca DOro who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 2:00.80 in the 2018 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Satsuki Sho Past Winners
Here are the Satsuki Sho past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Satsuki Sho are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 1:56.50 | Lovcen (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (4 of 18) 3/1F | Kohei Matsuyama Haruki Sugiyama (JPN) |
| 2025 1:57.00 | Museum Mile (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (11 of 18) 96/10 | Joao Moreira Daisuke Takayanagi (JPN) |
| 2024 1:57.10 | Justin Milano (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 17) 19/5 | Keita Tosaki Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
| 2023 2:00.60 | Sol Oriens (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (1 of 18) 42/10 | Takeshi Yokoyama Takahisa Tezuka (JPN) |
| 2022 1:59.70 | Geoglyph (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (14 of 18) 81/10 | Yuichi Fukunaga Tetsuya Kimura (JPN) |
| 2021 2:00.60 | Efforia (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 16) 27/10 | Takeshi Yokoyama Yuichi Shikato (JPN) |
| 2020 2:00.70 | Contrail (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (1 of 18) 17/10F | Yuichi Fukunaga Yoshito Yahagi (JPN) |
| 2019 1:58.10 | Saturnalia (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (12 of 18) 7/10F | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Katsuhiko Sumii (JPN) |
| 2018 2:00.80 | Epoca DOro (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 16) 135/10 | Keita Tosaki Hideaki Fujiwara (JPN) |
| 2017 1:57.80 | Al Ain (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (11 of 18) 214/10 | Kohei Matsuyama Yasutoshi Ikee (JPN) |
2026 Satsuki Sho Replay
Satsuki Sho Trainer Statistics
Here are some of the top Satsuki Sho trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yasuo Tomomichi | 12-1-2 | -7.20 | -8.60 |
| Yasutoshi Ikee | 8-1-2 | +14.40 | +4.20 |
| Tetsuya Kimura | 6-1-2 | +3.10 | -0.45 |
| Yoshito Yahagi | 6-1-1 | -3.30 | -4.15 |
| Takahisa Tezuka | 5-1-3 | +0.20 | -0.90 |
| Haruki Sugiyama | 4-1-1 | +0.00 | -1.50 |
| Yuichi Shikato | 4-1-1 | -0.30 | -1.65 |
| Hideaki Fujiwara | 2-1-1 | +12.50 | +5.75 |
| Daisuke Takayanagi | 1-1-1 | +9.60 | +4.80 |
| Katsuhiko Sumii | 1-1-1 | +0.70 | +0.35 |
Satsuki Sho Jockey Statistics
There are multiple leading jockeys in the Satsuki Sho over the last 10 renewals, with Keita Tosaki, Kohei Matsuyama, Yuichi Fukunaga, and Takeshi Yokoyama having all won the race twice. Keita Tosaki winners have been with Epoca DOro (2018) and Justin Milano (2024). Kohei Matsuyama's winners have been with Al Ain (2017) and Lovcen (2026). Yuichi Fukunaga's winners have been with Contrail (2020) and Geoglyph (2022). Takeshi Yokoyama's winners have been with Efforia (2021) and Sol Oriens (2023).
Here are some of the top Satsuki Sho jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keita Tosaki | 9-2-3 | +10.30 | +2.15 |
| Kohei Matsuyama | 7-2-3 | +19.40 | +7.70 |
| Yuichi Fukunaga | 6-2-2 | +5.80 | +0.90 |
| Takeshi Yokoyama | 6-2-3 | +2.90 | -0.05 |
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire | 9-1-3 | -7.30 | -6.65 |
| Joao Moreira | 2-1-2 | +8.60 | +4.30 |
| Hironobu Tanabe | 8-0-2 | -8.00 | -7.00 |
| Yutaka Take | 8-0-2 | -8.00 | -7.00 |
| Mirco Demuro | 8-0-1 | -8.00 | -7.50 |
| Yuga Kawada | 7-0-2 | -7.00 | -6.00 |
2027 Satsuki Sho Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 7, 7, 1, 1, 15, 3, 3, 6, 2, 1
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 10 / 10 (46%) - No bigger than 107/5
- 10 / 10 (51%) - Within the first 9 of the market
- 10 / 10 (61%) - Beaten no more -1½l (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (65%) - No bigger than 94/5 (Career)
- 10 / 10 (67%) - In a field of 8 - 14 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Break of 21 - 125 days (Last Place)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Had 1 - 2 placings (180 Days)
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Ran in 1 - 2 races (180 Days)
- 10 / 10 (79%) - Highest Placed is not LST/Cl2
- 10 / 10 (79%) - Not on SFT (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (82%) - Beaten no more -4¾l (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (83%) - Carried 119 - 123lbs (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (83%) - Ran in 1 - 3 races (Career)
- 10 / 10 (83%) - Off a break of 21 - 112 days
- 10 / 10 (85%) - Furthest Placed 1m - 1m2f
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Satsuki Sho Trend Analysis
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 places in the past 180 days, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-39.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 4 (15,9) [18 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 11 (10,6) [18 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 13 (12,8) [17 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 1 (14,7) [18 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 14 (18,12) [18 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Satsuki Sho is Nakayama; there have been a total of 5 winners of this race who ran at Nakayama last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Tokyo; there have been a total of 4 winners of this race who ran at Tokyo last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 173 runners, while female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 2 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Satsuki Sho; that stallion, Deep Impact, has produced 2 winners (2020,2017).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Satsuki Sho despite multiple attempts:
- Hearts Cry (0 Wins from 15 runners)
- Duramente (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Harbinger (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Rulership (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Screen Hero (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Al Ain in 2017, winning for Yasutoshi Ikee at odds of 214/10 under the guidance of Kohei Matsuyama. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Route to the Satsuki Sho
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Satsuki Sho. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Lovcen Tokyo - 3rd of 9 (16/5) | Kyodo News Hai |
| 2025 - Museum Mile Nakayama - 4th of 14 (29/10) | Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho Deep Impact Kinen |
| 2024 - Justin Milano Tokyo - 1st of 10 (33/5) | Kyodo News Hai |
| 2023 - Sol Oriens Nakayama - 1st of 9 (27/10) | Keisei Hai |
| 2022 - Geoglyph Tokyo - 2nd of 11 (12/5) | Kyodo News Hai |
| 2021 - Efforia Tokyo - 1st of 12 (34/5) | Kyodo News Hai |
| 2020 - Contrail Nakayama - 1st of 13 (1/1) | Hopeful Stakes |
| 2019 - Saturnalia Nakayama - 1st of 13 (4/5) | Hopeful Stakes |
| 2018 - Epoca DOro Nakayama - 2nd of 13 (53/10) | Fuji TV Sho Spring Stakes |
| 2017 - Al Ain Hanshin - 1st of 8 (77/10) | Mainichi Hai |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Satsuki Sho Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
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