Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Kentucky Derby Preview
The Kentucky Derby is a Group 1 race which is run at Churchill Downs Racecourse in May of each year, and is run the day after the Kentucky Oaks, it is open to three-year-old runners only and the race is run over a trip of one mile and two furlongs.
The race in the US is known as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" and was first run in 1875, with the race being the first leg of the American Triple Crown, which is followed by the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
For sponsorship purposes, the 2025 renewal of the Kentucky Derby will hold the title of 'Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve'.
Kentucky Derby Information:
Our dedicated Churchill Downs tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Kentucky Derby but will also have predictions for each meeting at Churchill Downs throughout the season so be sure to head over there.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Kentucky Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2023 when the race had an over-round of 122%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Kentucky Derby, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £122 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 Kentucky Derby Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Kentucky Derby Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the Kentucky Derby Trend Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run Kentucky Derby over the last 10 renewals:
- Authentic (2:00.61) in 2020
- Mandaloun (2:01.02) in 2021
- Nyquist (2:01.31) in 2016
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Kentucky Derby next time out, then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -4.40. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2018 renewal when Justify from Bob Baffert under the guidance of Mike E Smith, won in a time of 2:04.20, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Authentic, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by John R Velazquez set the quickest time of 2:00.61 in the 2020 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Kentucky Derby Past Winners
Here are the Kentucky Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Kentucky Derby are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
Race Notes: Medina Spirit won the 2021 Kentucky Derby but was later disqualified after testing positive for a banned substance.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 2:03.34 | Mystik Dan (USA) 3yo 9-0 (3 of 20) 186/10 | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr Kenneth McPeek (USA) |
| 2023 2:01.57 | Mage (USA) 3yo 9-0 (8 of 18) 152/10 | Javier Castellano Gustavo Delgado (USA) |
| 2022 2:02.61 | Rich Strike (USA) 3yo 9-0 (20 of 20) 81/1 | Sonny Leon Eric R Reed (USA) |
| 2021 2:01.02 | Mandaloun (USA) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 19) 269/10 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2020 2:00.61 | Authentic (USA) 3yo 9-0 (15 of 15) 84/10 | John R Velazquez Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2019 2:03.93 | Country House (USA) 3yo 9-0 (19 of 19) 65/1 | Flavien Prat William Mott (USA) |
| 2018 2:04.20 | Justify (USA) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 20) 29/10F | Mike E Smith Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2017 2:03.59 | Always Dreaming (USA) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 20) 47/10F | John R Velazquez Todd Pletcher (USA) |
| 2016 2:01.31 | Nyquist (USA) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 20) 23/10F | Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill (USA) |
| 2015 2:03.02 | American Pharoah (USA) 3yo 9-0 (15 of 18) 29/10F | Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert (USA) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kentucky Derby have been based:
- USA: 10 winners with an additional 19 placings from 169 runners
- CAN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 9 runners
- JPN: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 7 runners
- SAF: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- GB: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Kentucky Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Kentucky Derby over the last 10 renewals is Bob Baffert, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018) and Authentic (2020). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Kentucky Derby, Steven Asmussen has sent a total of 13 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are the Kentucky Derby trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Baffert | 10-3-4 | +7.20 | +1.44 |
| Todd Pletcher | 25-1-2 | -19.30 | -21.15 |
| Brad H Cox | 11-1-3 | +16.90 | +4.45 |
| William Mott | 6-1-2 | +60.00 | +28.00 |
| Kenneth McPeek | 4-1-1 | +15.60 | +6.30 |
| Steven Asmussen | 13-0-3 | -13.00 | -11.50 |
| Mark Casse | 8-0-0 | -8.00 | -8.00 |
| D Wayne Lukas | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| Saffie A Joseph Jr | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| John Shirreffs | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Michael McCarthy | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Brendan P Walsh | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Brian A Lynch | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Ian R Wilkes | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| D Whitworth Beckman | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Kentucky Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Kentucky Derby over the last 10 renewals is John R Velazquez, who has won the race two times, with those two winners coming from Always Dreaming (2017) and Authentic (2020).
Here are the Kentucky Derby jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| John R Velazquez (Grande) | 10-2-3 | +5.10 | -0.11 |
| Javier Castellano (Owen Almighty) | 8-1-2 | +8.20 | +1.10 |
| Mike E Smith (Rodriguez) | 8-1-1 | -4.10 | -5.55 |
| Flavien Prat (Baeza) | 7-1-5 | +59.00 | +28.50 |
| Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr (Burnham Square) | 5-1-1 | +14.60 | +5.30 |
| Jose L Ortiz (Sandman) | 8-0-2 | -8.00 | -7.00 |
| Joel Rosario (Tiztastic) | 8-0-1 | -8.00 | -7.50 |
| Irad Ortiz Jr (Publisher) | 7-0-0 | -7.00 | -7.00 |
| Julien R Leparoux (Render Judgment) | 7-0-0 | -7.00 | -7.00 |
| Manuel Franco (East Avenue) | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.43 |
| Junior Alvarado (Sovereignty) | 5-0-0 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire (Admire Daytona) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Umberto Rispoli (Journalism) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Jareth Loveberry (Chunk Of Gold) | 1-0-1 | -1.00 | -0.50 |
| Martin Garcia (Citizen Bull) | 1-0-1 | -1.00 | -0.50 |
2025 Kentucky Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 2, 3, 15
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Oost in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 10 / 10 (72%) - Furthest Placed 1m1f - 1m1f
- 10 / 10 (74%) - In a field of 5 - 10 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Had 2 - 3 placings (180 Days)
- 10 / 10 (83%) - Had 2 - 4 placings (Season)
- 10 / 10 (85%) - Not on SFT/GD/GF/SLW/STD (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (86%) - In a field of 7 - 12 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (86%) - Not BR/RG in colour
- 10 / 10 (87%) - Not in a G1-2/LST/Cl3-5 (Debut)
- 9 / 10 (62%) - In a field of 7 - 11 (Last Win)
- 9 / 10 (75%) - No bigger than 58/5 (Career Win)
- 9 / 10 (79%) - Furthest Won 7f - 1m1f
- 9 / 10 (79%) - No bigger than 58/5 (Last Win)
- 9 / 10 (83%) - Carried 118 - 124lbs (Last Win)
- 9 / 10 (85%) - Not in JPN/UAE (Last Win)
- 9 / 10 (86%) - Break of 20 - 232 days (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Churchill Downs racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Kentucky Derby. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Kentucky Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Kentucky Derby Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +127.50, is when runners had 3 career places in Non-Handicap.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran over 6f on debut, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-37.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 3 (2,10) [20 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 8 (3,12) [18 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 20 (3,10) [20 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 7 (9,14) [19 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 15 (14,7) [15 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Kentucky Derby are Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park; there have been a total of 3 winners from each of those courses.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Kentucky Derby; that stallion, Into Mischief, has produced 2 winners (2021,2020).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kentucky Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Tapit (0 Wins from 11 runners)
- Candy Ride (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Curlin (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Giants Causeway (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rich Strike in 2022, winning for Eric R Reed at odds of 81/1 under the guidance of Sonny Leon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
If you are interested in other races at the Churchill Downs racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Kentucky Oaks.
Kentucky Derby Trend Shortlist
Churchill Downs will host the 2025 renewal of the Kentucky Derby, which will be run at 11:57 pm on Saturday, 3rd May 2025, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Grande (20/1)
- Todd Pletcher (25-1-2 -19.30 / -21.15)
- John R Velazquez (10-2-3 +5.10 / -0.11)
- 15/15 Rodriguez (16/1)
- Bob Baffert (10-3-4 +7.20 / +1.44)
- Mike E Smith (8-1-1 -4.10 / -5.55)
Others: Sovereignty (14/15), Burnham Square (14/15), Owen Almighty (14/15), Neoequos (13/15), Tiztastic (13/15), American Promise (13/15), East Avenue (13/15), Sandman (13/15), Baeza (12/15), Journalism (12/15), Render Judgment (12/15), Final Gambit (10/15), Luxor Cafe (10/15), Admire Daytona (9/15), Coal Battle (9/15), Citizen Bull (9/15), Chunk Of Gold (8/15), Flying Mohawk (7/15) and Publisher (7/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (10:38 am Monday 28th April 2025), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Kentucky Derby Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Tipster Competition Assistant
Andy Powell
Content Editor
