Kentucky Derby Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

Updated: 3207 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the Kentucky Derby will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the Kentucky Derby, a race run over 1m2f at Churchill Downs.

Kentucky Derby Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends
In this article: Preview
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2025 Kentucky Derby Preview

The Kentucky Derby is a Group 1 race which is run at Churchill Down Racecourse in May of each year and run the day after the Kentucky Oaks, it is open to three-year-old runners only and the race is run over a trip of one mile and two furlongs.

The race in the US is known as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" and was first run in 1875 with the race being the first leg of the American Triple Crown which is followed by the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

Kentucky Derby Information:

Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Churchill Downs tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Churchill Downs Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Kentucky Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2023 when the race had an over-round of 122%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Kentucky Derby, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £122 which is bet.

Kentucky Derby Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Kentucky Derby next time out then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 8 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -3.40. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

When looking over the past 10 renewals, a time of 2:00.61 was set by Authentic in 2020, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by John R Velazquez. The slowest winning time was set in 2018 when Justify won in a time of 2:04.20, booked to ride was Mike E Smith by the trainer Bob Baffert.

These are the top three quickest-run Kentucky Derby over the last 10 renewals:

  1. Authentic (2:00.61) in 2020
  2. Mandaloun (2:01.02) in 2021
  3. Nyquist (2:01.31) in 2016

Kentucky Derby Past Winners

Here are the Kentucky Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Kentucky Derby as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Race Notes: Medina Spirit won the 2021 but was later disqualified after testing positive for a banned substance.

YearHorse (Drawn)Info
2024
2:03.34
Mystik Dan (USA)
3yo 9-0 (3 of 20) 186/10
Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr
Kenneth McPeek (USA)
2023
2:01.57
Mage (USA)
3yo 9-0 (8 of 18) 152/10
Javier Castellano
Gustavo Delgado (USA)
2022
2:02.61
Rich Strike (USA)
3yo 9-0 (20 of 20) 81/1
Sonny Leon
Eric R Reed (USA)
2021
2:01.02
Mandaloun (USA)
3yo 9-0 (7 of 19) 269/10
Florent Geroux
Brad H Cox (USA)
2020
2:00.61
Authentic (USA)
3yo 9-0 (15 of 15) 84/10
John R Velazquez
Bob Baffert (USA)
2019
2:03.93
Country House (USA)
3yo 9-0 (19 of 19) 65/1
Flavien Prat
William Mott (USA)
2018
2:04.20
Justify (USA)
3yo 9-0 (7 of 20) 29/10F
Mike E Smith
Bob Baffert (USA)
2017
2:03.59
Always Dreaming (USA)
3yo 9-0 (5 of 20) 47/10F
John R Velazquez
Todd Pletcher (USA)
2016
2:01.31
Nyquist (USA)
3yo 9-0 (13 of 20) 23/10F
Mario Gutierrez
Doug O'Neill (USA)
2015
2:03.02
American Pharoah (USA)
3yo 9-0 (15 of 18) 29/10F
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert (USA)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kentucky Derby have been based:

  • USA: 10 winners with an additional 19 placings from 169 runners
  • CAN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 9 runners
  • JPN: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 7 runners
  • GB: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • SAF: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • UAE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Kentucky Derby Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Kentucky Derby over the last 10 renewals is Bob Baffert who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018) and Authentic (2020). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Kentucky Derby, Steven Asmussen has sent a total of 13 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Kentucky Derby trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

TrainerR-W-PWinEW
Bob Baffert10-3-4+7.20+1.44
Todd Pletcher25-1-2-19.30-21.15
Brad H Cox11-1-3+16.90+4.45
William Mott6-1-2+60.00+28.00
Kenneth McPeek4-1-1+15.60+6.30
Doug O'Neill4-1-2-0.70-1.35
Gustavo Delgado3-1-1+13.20+5.60
Eric R Reed1-1-1+81.00+40.50
Steven Asmussen13-0-3-13.00-11.50
Chad C Brown8-0-3-8.00-6.50

Kentucky Derby Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Kentucky Derby over the last 10 renewals is John R Velazquez who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Always Dreaming (2017) and Authentic (2020).

Here are some of the top Kentucky Derby jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

JockeyR-W-PWinEW
John R Velazquez10-2-3+5.10-0.11
Florent Geroux8-1-2+19.90+6.95
Javier Castellano8-1-2+8.20+1.10
Mike E Smith8-1-1-4.10-5.55
Flavien Prat7-1-5+59.00+28.50
Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr5-1-1+14.60+5.30
Victor Espinoza4-1-1-0.10-1.55
Mario Gutierrez2-1-1+1.30+0.15
Sonny Leon1-1-1+81.00+40.50
Luis Saez9-0-1-9.00-8.50

Kentucky Derby Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +127.50 is when runners had 3 career places in Non-Handicap. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran over 6f on debut, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-37.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2024: Winner in 3 (2,10) [20 Runners]
  • 2023: Winner in 8 (3,12) [18 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 20 (3,10) [20 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 7 (9,14) [19 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 15 (14,7) [15 Runners]

The courses that have produced the most winners of the Kentucky Derby are Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Kentucky Derby, that stallion Into Mischief has produced 2 winners (2021,2020).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kentucky Derby despite multiple attempts:

  • Tapit (0 Wins from 11 runners)
  • Candy Ride (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Curlin (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Giants Causeway (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rich Strike in 2022, winning for Eric R Reed at odds of 81/1 under the guidance of Sonny Leon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Kentucky Derby head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters today. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

Article Contributor Information

We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Kentucky Derby Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.

James Banting

James Banting

Tipster competition assistant

James Banting, a passionate horse racing enthusiast and aficionado, brings a wealth of experience to OLBG, having attended numerous race meetings over the years. His background working with the Jockey Club provides him with a unique insider's perspective on the industry.
Andy Powell

Andy Powell

Content editor

Andy, a seasoned horse racing analyst with over 15 years of experience, delves into the intricacies of international horse racing, meticulously analyzing complex statistical data to uncover hidden trends. He spearheads the creation and management of OLBG's international horse racing trend blogs, providing valuable insights for bettors worldwide.

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