You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2026 Kentucky Derby Preview
The Kentucky Derby is a Group 1 race run at Churchill Downs Racecourse in May each year, the day after the Kentucky Oaks. It is open to three-year-old runners only, and the race is run over a trip of one mile and two furlongs.
The race in the US is known as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" and was first run in 1875, serving as the first leg of the American Triple Crown, which is followed by the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
For sponsorship purposes, the 2026 renewal of the Kentucky Derby will hold the title of 'Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve'.
Kentucky Derby Information:
To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Churchill Downs tips on the day of the race. Do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist, or are they predicting other runners?
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Kentucky Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009, when the race had an over-round of 120%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Kentucky Derby, the over-round has been 121%, which means the bookie expects to pay out ÂŁ100 for every ÂŁ121 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Kentucky Derby Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Kentucky Derby Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the Kentucky Derby Trend Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run Kentucky Derby races over the last 20 renewals:
- Authentic (2:00.61) in 2020
- Mandaloun (2:01.02) in 2021
- Nyquist (2:01.31) in 2016
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Kentucky Derby next time out, then you would have backed a total of 7 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -4.00. Before placing your bet on the 2026 Kentucky Derby, see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 2:00.61 was set by Authentic in 2020, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by John R Velazquez, which is the quickest time over that period. The slowest winning time was set in 2010 when Super Saver won in a time of 2:04.45 for trainer Todd Pletcher, who booked Calvin H Borel in the saddle.
Kentucky Derby Past Winners
Here are the Kentucky Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Kentucky Derby are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
Race Notes: Medina Spirit won the 2021 but was later disqualified after testing positive for a banned substance.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 2:02.31 | Sovereignty (USA) 3yo 9-0 (16 of 19) 8/1 | Junior Alvarado William Mott (USA) |
| 2024 2:03.34 | Mystik Dan (USA) 3yo 9-0 (3 of 20) 186/10 | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr Kenneth McPeek (USA) |
| 2023 2:01.57 | Mage (USA) 3yo 9-0 (8 of 18) 152/10 | Javier Castellano Gustavo Delgado (USA) |
| 2022 2:02.61 | Rich Strike (USA) 3yo 9-0 (20 of 20) 81/1 | Sonny Leon Eric R Reed (USA) |
| 2021 2:01.02 | Mandaloun (USA) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 19) 269/10 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2020 2:00.61 | Authentic (USA) 3yo 9-0 (15 of 15) 84/10 | John R Velazquez Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2019 2:03.93 | Country House (USA) 3yo 9-0 (19 of 19) 65/1 | Flavien Prat William Mott (USA) |
| 2018 2:04.20 | Justify (USA) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 20) 29/10F | Mike E Smith Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2017 2:03.59 | Always Dreaming (USA) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 20) 47/10F | John R Velazquez Todd Pletcher (USA) |
| 2016 2:01.31 | Nyquist (USA) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 20) 23/10F | Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill (USA) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kentucky Derby have been based:
- USA: 20 winners with an additional 39 placings from 352 runners
- CAN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 13 runners
- JPN: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 9 runners
- GB: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- SAF: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
2025 Kentucky Derby Replay
Kentucky Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Kentucky Derby over the last 20 renewals is Bob Baffert, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018) and Authentic (2020). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Kentucky Derby are Todd Pletcher (2 wins), William Mott (2 wins) and Doug O'Neill (2 wins). One trainer has not had the best of times in the Kentucky Derby; Mark Casse has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording a win.
Here are the Kentucky Derby trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2026 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Baffert | 21-3-6 | -3.80 | -8.56 |
| Todd Pletcher | 53-2-6 | -38.30 | -42.65 |
| William Mott | 10-2-3 | +65.00 | +29.00 |
| Doug O'Neill | 8-2-3 | +11.60 | +3.30 |
| Brad H Cox | 12-1-3 | +15.90 | +3.45 |
| Kenneth McPeek | 8-1-1 | +11.60 | +2.30 |
| Gustavo Delgado | 3-1-1 | +13.20 | +5.60 |
| Mark Casse | 11-0-0 | -11.00 | -11.00 |
| Chad C Brown | 9-0-3 | -9.00 | -7.50 |
| Dallas Stewart | 4-0-2 | -4.00 | -3.00 |
| D Whitworth Beckman | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| John Ennis | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| B Seemar | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Daisuke Takayanagi | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Kentucky Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Kentucky Derby over the last 20 renewals is John R Velazquez, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Animal Kingdom (2011), Always Dreaming (2017) and Authentic (2020). Two jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Kentucky Derby. Luis Saez has ridden 12 runners in the race without recording any wins, whilst Jose L Ortiz has ridden 10 without a winner.
Here are the Kentucky Derby jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2026 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| John R Velazquez (Further Ado) | 18-3-4 | +19.00 | +3.34 |
| Javier Castellano (The Puma) | 16-1-2 | +0.20 | -6.90 |
| Mike E Smith (So Happy) | 16-1-2 | -12.10 | -13.05 |
| Flavien Prat (Emerging Market) | 8-1-6 | +58.00 | +28.00 |
| Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr (Six Speed) | 6-1-1 | +13.60 | +4.30 |
| Junior Alvarado (Chief Wallabee) | 6-1-1 | +3.00 | -1.00 |
| Luis Saez (Commandment) | 12-0-1 | -12.00 | -11.50 |
| Jose L Ortiz (Golden Tempo) | 10-0-2 | -10.00 | -9.00 |
| Irad Ortiz Jr (Renegade) | 9-0-0 | -9.00 | -9.00 |
| Tyler Gaffalione (Fulleffort) | 7-0-1 | -7.00 | -6.50 |
| Manuel Franco (Albus) | 6-0-1 | -6.00 | -5.43 |
| Martin Garcia (Litmus Test) | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.50 |
| Emisael Jaramillo (Robusta) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Ryusei Sakai (Wonder Dean) | 1-0-1 | -1.00 | -0.50 |
| Joseph D Ramos (Ocelli) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
2026 Kentucky Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 7, 1, 1, 18, 6, 8, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 2, 3, 15, 2
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 20 / 20 (83%) - In a field of 7 - 12 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Not on SFT/GS/GD/GF/SLW/STD (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Carried 117 - 122lbs (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Not GR/RG in colour
- 19 / 20 (66%) - Not at AQU/KEE/MEY (LTO)
- 19 / 20 (76%) - No bigger than 58/5 (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (77%) - In a field of 6 - 12 (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (80%) - Ran over 7f - 1m1f (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (80%) - Carried 117 - 124lbs (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (81%) - Furthest Won 7f - 1m1f
- 19 / 20 (88%) - Highest Won is not LST/Cl3
- 19 / 20 (88%) - Not in a LST/Cl3 (Last Win)
- 18 / 20 (79%) - Achieved an RPR of 103+ (LTO)
- 18 / 20 (80%) - First 5 but not 3rd (Debut)
- 15 / 20 (42%) - Within the first 8 of the market
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Churchill Downs racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Kentucky Derby. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over ÂŁ6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Kentucky Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
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Kentucky Derby Trend Shortlist
Churchill Downs will host the 2026 renewal of the Kentucky Derby, which will be run at 11:57 pm on Saturday, 2nd May 2026, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer, jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Potente (20/1)
- Bob Baffert (21-3-6 -3.80 / -8.56)
- Juan J Hernandez (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
- 15/15 So Happy (14/1)
- Mark Glatt (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
- Mike E Smith (16-1-2 -12.10 / -13.05)
Others: Golden Tempo (14/15), Incredibolt (14/15), Renegade (14/15), Commandment (14/15), Intrepido (13/15), Litmus Test (13/15), Silent Tactic (13/15), Further Ado (13/15), Emerging Market (13/15), The Puma (13/15), Fulleffort (12/15), Albus (11/15), Pavlovian (11/15), Danon Bourbon (11/15), Great White (10/15), Six Speed (10/15), Chief Wallabee (9/15), Wonder Dean (8/15), Robusta (7/15), Ocelli (6/15), Corona De Oro (5/15) and Right To Party (4/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (10:05 am Monday 27th April 2026), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Kentucky Derby Trend Analysis
â The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +103.00, is when runners had 0 starts in the past 30 days.
â The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career place with the jockey, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-94.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 16 (7,19) [19 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 3 (2,10) [20 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 8 (3,12) [18 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 20 (3,10) [20 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 7 (9,14) [19 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Kentucky Derby is Gulfstream Park; there have been a total of 7 winners of this race who ran at Gulfstream Park last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Oaklawn Park; there have been a total of 4 winners of this race who ran at Oaklawn Park last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 382 runners, while female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 2 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Kentucky Derby; that stallion, Into Mischief, has produced 3 winners (2025,2021,2020).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kentucky Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Tapit (0 Wins from 15 runners)
- Candy Ride (0 Wins from 10 runners)
- Curlin (0 Wins from 10 runners)
- Giants Causeway (0 Wins from 9 runners)
- Tiznow (0 Wins from 8 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rich Strike in 2022, winning for Eric R Reed at odds of 81/1 under the guidance of Sonny Leon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 8 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2026 Kentucky Derby, why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today? All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post. If you are interested in other races at the Churchill Downs racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Kentucky Oaks?
Route to the Kentucky Derby
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Kentucky Derby. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Sovereignty Gulfstream Park - 2nd of 10 (27/10) | Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill n Dale Farms at Xalapa |
| 2024 - Mystik Dan Oaklawn Park - 3rd of 10 (4/1) | Arkansas Derby |
| 2023 - Mage Gulfstream Park - 2nd of 12 (57/10) | Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill n Dale Farms at Xalapa |
| 2022 - Rich Strike Turfway Park - 3rd of 12 (27/1) | Jeff Ruby Steaks |
| 2021 - Mandaloun Fair Grounds - 6th of 8 (23/10) | Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby |
| 2020 - Authentic Monmouth Park - 1st of 7 (8/5) | TVG.com Haskell Stakes |
| 2019 - Country House Oaklawn Park - 3rd of 11 (8/1) | Arkansas Derby |
| 2018 - Justify Santa Anita - 1st of 7 (19/10) | Santa Anita Derby |
| 2017 - Always Dreaming Gulfstream Park - 1st of 10 (37/10) | Xpressbet Florida Derby |
| 2016 - Nyquist Gulfstream Park - 1st of 10 (6/5) | Xpressbet.com Florida Derby |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Kentucky Derby Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
