You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 Kentucky Derby Preview
The Kentucky Derby is a Group 1 race run at Churchill Downs Racecourse in May each year, the day after the Kentucky Oaks. It is open to three-year-old runners only, and the race is run over a trip of one mile and two furlongs.
The race in the US is known as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" and was first run in 1875, serving as the first leg of the American Triple Crown, which is followed by the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
Kentucky Derby Information:
Our dedicated Churchill Downs tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Kentucky Derby, but will also have predictions for each meeting at Churchill Downs throughout the season, so be sure to head over there.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Kentucky Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009, when the race had an over-round of 120%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Kentucky Derby, the over-round has been 121%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £121 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Kentucky Derby Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Kentucky Derby Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Kentucky Derby races over the last 20 renewals:
- Authentic (2:00.61) in 2020
- Mandaloun (2:01.02) in 2021
- Nyquist (2:01.31) in 2016
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Kentucky Derby next time out, then you would have backed a total of 7 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -3.00. Before placing your bet on the 2027 Kentucky Derby, see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Authentic, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by John R Velazquez, who set the fastest winning time in the Kentucky Derby. That runner won the race in a time of 2:00.61 in 2020. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Calvin H Borel with Super Saver who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 2:04.45 in the 2010 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Kentucky Derby Past Winners
Here are the Kentucky Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Kentucky Derby are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
Race Notes: Medina Spirit won the 2021, but was later disqualified after testing positive for a banned substance.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 2:02.27 | Golden Tempo (USA) 3yo 9-0 (16 of 18) 231/10 | Jose L Ortiz Cherie DeVaux (USA) |
| 2025 2:02.31 | Sovereignty (USA) 3yo 9-0 (16 of 19) 8/1 | Junior Alvarado William Mott (USA) |
| 2024 2:03.34 | Mystik Dan (USA) 3yo 9-0 (3 of 20) 186/10 | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr Kenneth McPeek (USA) |
| 2023 2:01.57 | Mage (USA) 3yo 9-0 (8 of 18) 152/10 | Javier Castellano Gustavo Delgado (USA) |
| 2022 2:02.61 | Rich Strike (USA) 3yo 9-0 (20 of 20) 81/1 | Sonny Leon Eric R Reed (USA) |
| 2021 2:01.02 | Mandaloun (USA) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 19) 269/10 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2020 2:00.61 | Authentic (USA) 3yo 9-0 (15 of 15) 84/10 | John R Velazquez Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2019 2:03.93 | Country House (USA) 3yo 9-0 (19 of 19) 65/1 | Flavien Prat William Mott (USA) |
| 2018 2:04.20 | Justify (USA) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 20) 29/10F | Mike E Smith Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2017 2:03.59 | Always Dreaming (USA) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 20) 47/10F | John R Velazquez Todd Pletcher (USA) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kentucky Derby have been based:
- USA: 20 winners with an additional 39 placings from 348 runners
- CAN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 12 runners
- JPN: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 11 runners
- GB: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- SAF: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
2026 Kentucky Derby Replay
Kentucky Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Kentucky Derby over the last 20 renewals is Bob Baffert, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018) and Authentic (2020). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Kentucky Derby are Todd Pletcher (2 wins), William Mott (2 wins) and Doug O'Neill (2 wins). Multiple trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Kentucky Derby. Steven Asmussen (0-23), Dale Romans (0-11), Mark Casse (0-10), Chad C Brown (0-10) and Michael J Maker (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.
Here are some of the top Kentucky Derby trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Baffert | 20-3-6 | -2.80 | -7.56 |
| Todd Pletcher | 52-2-6 | -37.30 | -41.65 |
| William Mott | 11-2-3 | +64.00 | +28.00 |
| Doug O'Neill | 10-2-3 | +9.60 | +1.30 |
| Brad H Cox | 14-1-3 | +13.90 | +1.45 |
| Kenneth McPeek | 8-1-1 | +11.60 | +2.30 |
| H Graham Motion | 4-1-1 | +17.90 | +7.45 |
| Gustavo Delgado | 3-1-1 | +13.20 | +5.60 |
| Claude R McGaughey III | 2-1-2 | +4.50 | +2.25 |
| Richard Dutrow Jr | 2-1-1 | +1.40 | +0.20 |
Kentucky Derby Jockey Statistics
There are two leading jockeys in the Kentucky Derby over the last 20 renewals, with both John R Velazquez and Calvin H Borel, who have both won the race three times. John R Velazquez winners have been with Animal Kingdom (2011), Always Dreaming (2017) and Authentic (2020). Calvin H Borel winners have been with Street Sense (2007), Mine That Bird (2009) and Super Saver (2010). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Kentucky Derby are Victor Espinoza (2 wins) and Mario Gutierrez (2 wins). Multiple jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Kentucky Derby, Julien R Leparoux (0-15), Luis Saez (0-13), Rafael Bejarano (0-11) and Irad Ortiz Jr (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides in the race.
Here are some of the top Kentucky Derby jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| John R Velazquez | 19-3-4 | +18.00 | +2.34 |
| Calvin H Borel | 8-3-5 | +58.90 | +27.95 |
| Victor Espinoza | 6-2-2 | +1.40 | -1.30 |
| Mario Gutierrez | 3-2-2 | +16.60 | +7.80 |
| Javier Castellano | 16-1-2 | +0.20 | -6.90 |
| Mike E Smith | 16-1-2 | -12.10 | -13.05 |
| Joel Rosario | 14-1-2 | -7.50 | -9.75 |
| Jose L Ortiz | 11-1-3 | +13.10 | +2.55 |
| Flavien Prat | 9-1-6 | +57.00 | +27.00 |
| Kent J Desormeaux | 9-1-4 | -5.60 | -5.30 |
2027 Kentucky Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 1, 18, 6, 8, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 2, 3, 15, 2, 11
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 20 / 20 (84%) - In a field of 5 - 11 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - In a field of 7 - 12 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Not on SFT/GS/GD/GF/SLW/STD (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Carried 117 - 122lbs (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Not BR/GR/RG in colour
- 19 / 20 (77%) - No bigger than 58/5 (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (78%) - In a field of 6 - 12 (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (81%) - Furthest Won 7f - 1m1f
- 19 / 20 (81%) - Ran over 7f - 1m1f (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (81%) - Carried 117 - 124lbs (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (84%) - Not in IRL/JPN/UAE (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (84%) - Not on GD/FM/SLW (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (88%) - Highest Won is not LST/Cl3
- 19 / 20 (88%) - Not in a LST/Cl3 (Last Win)
- 18 / 20 (79%) - Achieved an RPR of 103+ (LTO)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Churchill Downs racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Kentucky Derby. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Kentucky Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
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Kentucky Derby Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +112.00, is when runners had 0 starts in the past 30 days.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career place with the jockey, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-88.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 16 (1,17) [18 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 16 (7,19) [19 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 3 (2,10) [20 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 8 (3,12) [18 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 20 (3,10) [20 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Kentucky Derby is Gulfstream Park; there have been a total of 6 winners of this race who ran at Gulfstream Park last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Oaklawn Park; there have been a total of 4 winners of this race who ran at Oaklawn Park last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 380 runners, while female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 2 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Kentucky Derby; that stallion, Into Mischief, has produced 3 winners (2025,2021,2020).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kentucky Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Tapit (0 Wins from 15 runners)
- Candy Ride (0 Wins from 11 runners)
- Giants Causeway (0 Wins from 9 runners)
- Tiznow (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Mineshaft (0 Wins from 6 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rich Strike in 2022, winning for Eric R Reed at odds of 81/1 under the guidance of Sonny Leon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 8 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2027 Kentucky Derby, head over to see which runners the best racing tipsters are tipping today. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Route to the Kentucky Derby
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Kentucky Derby. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Golden Tempo Fair Grounds - 3rd of 9 (41/10) | TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby |
| 2025 - Sovereignty Gulfstream Park - 2nd of 10 (27/10) | Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill n Dale Farms at Xalapa |
| 2024 - Mystik Dan Oaklawn Park - 3rd of 10 (4/1) | Arkansas Derby |
| 2023 - Mage Gulfstream Park - 2nd of 12 (57/10) | Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill n Dale Farms at Xalapa |
| 2022 - Rich Strike Turfway Park - 3rd of 12 (27/1) | Jeff Ruby Steaks |
| 2021 - Mandaloun Fair Grounds - 6th of 8 (23/10) | Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby |
| 2020 - Authentic Monmouth Park - 1st of 7 (8/5) | TVG.com Haskell Stakes |
| 2019 - Country House Oaklawn Park - 3rd of 11 (8/1) | Arkansas Derby |
| 2018 - Justify Santa Anita - 1st of 7 (19/10) | Santa Anita Derby |
| 2017 - Always Dreaming Gulfstream Park - 1st of 10 (37/10) | Xpressbet Florida Derby |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Kentucky Derby Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Other Principal Races in the US
Here are some other notable races throughout the US, which take place during the racing season that we also have blogs for.
Races at Belmont Park Racecourse
Races at Churchill Downs Racecourse
Races at Far Hills Racecourse
Races at Gulfstream Park Racecourse
Races at Pimlico Racecourse
Races at Breeders' Cup World Championships
- Breeders' Cup Classic
- Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
- Breeders' Cup Distaff
- Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
- Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
- Breeders' Cup Juvenile
- Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
- Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
- Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
- Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
- Breeders' Cup Mile
- Breeders' Cup Sprint
- Breeders' Cup Turf
- Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
