2022 Breeders Cup Mile Preview, Trends & Analysis

2022 Breeders Cup Mile Preview, Trends & Analysis

2022 Breeders Cup Mile Preview

The Breeders Cup Mile is run on the turf over a mile open to runners 3yo+ first run in 1984 there is a purse of $2m on offer and in 2018 Sir Michael Stoute ended the Americans run of 7 straight winners in the race. That was the first European success since Goldikova's third win in 2010 and was the first UK/IRE success since 1995 when John Oxx's Ridgewood Pearl won.

The other European success in the race was with Vincent O'Brien in 1990, Francois Boutin with back-to-back wins in 1987-88, John Gosden's success in 1984, Aidan O'Brien who had the 1-2-3 in 2020 and in 2021, Charlie Appleby was successful with Space Blues. The Queen Anne Stakes winner gets a 'Win and You're In' entry here as does the Sussex Stakes winner.

Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Keeneland Betting Picks page to see which of those runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet.

The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2018 renewal when Expert Eye from Sir Michael Stoute who under the guidance of Frankie Dettori, won in a time of 1:39.80, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Tourist, trained by William Mott and ridden by Joel Rosario set the quickest time of 1:31.71 in the 2016 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Breeders Cup Mile over the last 10 renewals:

  • 2016 - Tourist (1:31.71)
  • 2012 - Wise Dan (1:31.78)
  • 2019 - Uni (1:32.45)

How competitive is the Breeders Cup Mile market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 117%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 123%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Breeders Cup Mile, the over-round has been 120% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £120 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Breeders Cup Mile next time out then you would have back a total of 4 winners. Backing all 7 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -1.70. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

Breeders Cup Mile Past Winners

Here are the Breeders Cup Mile past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Breeders Cup Mile as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2021
1:34.01
Space Blues (IRE)
5yo 9-0 (2 of 13) 21/10F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2020
1:33.73
Order Of Australia (IRE)
3yo 8-11 (14 of 14) 40/1
Pierre-Charles Boudot
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2019
1:32.45
Uni (GB)
5yo 8-11 (9 of 13) 9/2
Joel Rosario
Chad C Brown (USA)
2018
1:39.80
Expert Eye (GB)
3yo 8-11 (6 of 14) 9/2F
Frankie Dettori
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)
2017
1:34.55
World Approval (USA)
5yo 9-0 (5 of 14) 11/4F
John R Velazquez
Mark Casse (CAN)
2016
1:31.71
Tourist (USA)
5yo 9-0 (5 of 14) 33/1
Joel Rosario
William Mott (USA)
2015
1:36.69
Tepin (USA)
4yo 8-11 (7 of 12) 7/1
Julien R Leparoux
Mark Casse (CAN)
2014
1:32.88
Karakontie (JPN)
3yo 8-11 (14 of 14) 16/1
Stephane Pasquier
J E Pease (FR)
2013
1:32.47
Wise Dan (USA)
6yo 9-0 (8 of 10) 4/5F
Jose Lezcano
Charles LoPresti (USA)
2012
1:31.78
Wise Dan (USA)
5yo 9-0 (2 of 9) 9/4
John R Velazquez
Charles LoPresti (USA)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Breeders Cup Mile have been based:

  • USA: 4 winners with an additional 11 placings from 62 runners
  • GB: 2 winners with an additional 2 placings from 20 runners
  • CAN: 2 winners with an additional 3 placings from 12 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 3 placings from 21 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 10 runners
  • JPN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Breeders Cup Mile Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Breeders Cup Mile over the last 10 renewals with both Mark Casse & Charles LoPresti who have both won the race 2 times. Mark Casse winners have been with Tepin (2015) & World Approval (2017). Charles LoPresti winners have been with Wise Dan (2012) & Wise Dan (2013).

Here are some of the top Breeders Cup Mile trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Mark Casse 7-2-4 +4.75 +2.53
Charles LoPresti 2-2-2 +3.05 +1.83
A P O'Brien 16-1-4 +25.00 +13.90
Chad C Brown 9-1-3 -3.50 -2.50
William Mott 7-1-1 +27.00 +13.80
J E Pease 2-1-1 +15.00 +8.60
Sir Michael Stoute 2-1-1 +3.50 +1.70
Charlie Appleby 1-1-1 +2.10 +1.26
Philip DAmato 5-0-1 -5.00 -2.00
Brian A Lynch 4-0-1 -4.00 -1.00

Breeders Cup Mile Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Breeders Cup Mile over the last 10 renewals with both Joel Rosario & John R Velazquez who have both won the race 2 times. Joel Rosario winners have been with Tourist (2016) & Uni (2019). John R Velazquez winners have been with Wise Dan (2012) & World Approval (2017).

Here are some of the top Breeders Cup Mile jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Joel Rosario 7-2-3 +32.50 +21.30
John R Velazquez 6-2-2 +1.00 -1.00
Julien R Leparoux 5-1-2 +3.00 +1.05
Frankie Dettori 5-1-2 +0.50 +0.40
William Buick 3-1-1 +0.10 -0.74
Jose Lezcano 3-1-1 -1.20 -1.52
Pierre-Charles Boudot 2-1-1 +39.00 +23.00
Stephane Pasquier 2-1-1 +15.00 +8.60
Ryan Moore 8-0-1 -8.00 -6.30
Joseph Talamo 6-0-2 -6.00 -1.41

2022 Breeders Cup Mile Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,4,1,8,5,6,1,1,(2,4),7,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

  • 10 / 10 (65%) - No bigger than 6/1 (LTO)
  • 10 / 10 (75%) - Won within last 3 starts
  • 10 / 10 (80%) - No bigger than 73/10 (Last Win)
  • 10 / 10 (84%) - 2-6 starts that season
  • 9 / 10 (74%) - 4+ career wins
  • 9 / 10 (79%) - Not in ENG or IRE (LTO)
  • 9 / 10 (83%) - Previous won a G1 or G2
  • 9 / 10 (84%) - At least 8 career starts
  • 9 / 10 (88%) - Last win was in a G1/2/3
  • 8 / 10 (84%) - Last win was over 1m+
  • 7 / 10 (78%) - Had 1-2 starts (90 Days)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Keeneland racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Breeders Cup Mile. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Breeders Cup Mile by adding a tip on the race here.

Breeders Cup Mile Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +60.85 is when runners had 2 places in the past 90 days. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 place in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-54.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 2 (1,12) [13 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 14 (1,3) [14 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 9 (5,8) [13 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 6 (8,10) [14 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 5 (4,13) [14 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Breeders Cup Mile is Keeneland, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Keeneland last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Longchamp, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Longchamp last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 8 winners from a total of 104 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 23 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Breeders Cup Mile:

  • Bernstein (2 Wins)
  • Wisemans Ferry (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Breeders Cup Mile despite multiple attempts:

  • Galileo (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Choisir (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Invincible Spirit (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • War Front (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Order Of Australia in 2020 when winning for A P O'Brien at odds of 40/1 under the guidance of Pierre-Charles Boudot. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there has been a total of 4 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2022 Breeders Cup Mile remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

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