2022 Breeders Cup Juvenile Preview, Trends & Analysis

2022 Breeders Cup Juvenile Preview, Trends & Analysis

2022 Breeders Cup Juvenile Preview

The Breeders Cup Juvenile is run on the dirt over eight and a half furlongs and was first run in 1984. Being a juvenile race, it is open to runners aged two years old only and only colt and geldings. There are only four races in the 'Win and You're In' series for guaranteed entries into this race. These races are the Iroquois Stakes, American Pharoah Stakes, Champagne Stakes and Breeders' Futurity Stakes.

If you are interested in other predictions at Keeneland then head over to the Keeneland Betting Picks page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below.

Over the last 10 renewals, it was the J Keith Desormeaux trained Texas Red ridden by Kent J Desormeaux who has set the fastest winning time in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, the runner won the race in a time of 1:41.91 that was set when winning the race in 2014. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Peter Eurton and jockey Flavien Prat with Storm The Court who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 1:44.93 in the 2019 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Breeders Cup Juvenile over the last 10 renewals:

  • 2014 - Texas Red (1:41.91)
  • 2020 - Essential Quality (1:42.09)
  • 2021 - Corniche (1:42.50)

How competitive is the Breeders Cup Juvenile market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 115%. The race in 2013 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, the over-round has been 118% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £118 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile next time out then you would have back a total of 2 winners. Backing all 8 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -4.70. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

Breeders Cup Juvenile Past Winners

Here are the Breeders Cup Juvenile past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2021
1:42.50
Corniche (USA)
2yo 8-10 (11 of 11) 7/5F
Mike E Smith
Bob Baffert (USA)
2020
1:42.09
Essential Quality (USA)
2yo 8-10 (5 of 14) 100/30
Luis Saez
Brad H Cox (USA)
2019
1:44.93
Storm The Court (USA)
2yo 8-10 (4 of 8) 50/1
Flavien Prat
Peter Eurton (USA)
2018
1:43.67
Game Winner (USA)
2yo 8-10 (9 of 13) 5/4F
Joel Rosario
Bob Baffert (USA)
2017
1:43.34
Good Magic (USA)
2yo 8-10 (6 of 12) 12/1
Jose L Ortiz
Chad C Brown (USA)
2016
1:42.60
Classic Empire (USA)
2yo 8-10 (5 of 11) 11/2
Julien R Leparoux
Mark Casse (CAN)
2015
1:43.79
Nyquist (USA)
2yo 8-10 (12 of 14) 11/2
Mario Gutierrez
Doug O'Neill (USA)
2014
1:41.91
Texas Red (USA)
2yo 8-10 (5 of 11) 14/1
Kent J Desormeaux
J Keith Desormeaux (USA)
2013
1:43.52
New Years Day (USA)
2yo 8-10 (4 of 13) 8/1
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert (USA)
2012
1:44.58
Shanghai Bobby (USA)
2yo 8-10 (4 of 9) 7/4F
Rosie Napravnik
Todd Pletcher (USA)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Breeders Cup Juvenile have been based:

  • USA: 9 winners with an additional 19 placings from 103 runners
  • CAN: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 8 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
  • JPN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners

Breeders Cup Juvenile Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Breeders Cup Juvenile over the last 10 renewals is Bob Baffert who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from New Years Day (2013), Game Winner (2018) & Corniche (2021).

Here are some of the top Breeders Cup Juvenile trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Bob Baffert 13-3-4 +0.65 -1.91
Todd Pletcher 11-1-3 -8.25 -7.40
Doug O'Neill 7-1-3 -0.50 +11.60
Mark Casse 6-1-2 +0.50 +0.31
Chad C Brown 5-1-2 +8.00 +4.50
J Keith Desormeaux 4-1-2 +11.00 +7.90
Peter Eurton 2-1-1 +49.00 +29.00
Brad H Cox 1-1-1 +3.33 +2.00
Dale Romans 9-0-3 -9.00 -4.41
Steven Asmussen 6-0-0 -6.00 -6.00

Breeders Cup Juvenile Jockey Statistics

Here are some of the top Breeders Cup Juvenile jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Mike E Smith 6-1-1 -3.60 -4.16
Joel Rosario 6-1-4 -3.75 +0.35
Flavien Prat 4-1-2 +47.00 +28.70
Jose L Ortiz 4-1-3 +9.00 +8.60
Mario Gutierrez 4-1-2 +2.50 +4.10
Kent J Desormeaux 3-1-1 +12.00 +6.40
Martin Garcia 2-1-1 +7.00 +3.80
Julien R Leparoux 2-1-1 +4.50 +2.30
Luis Saez 2-1-1 +2.33 +1.00
Rosie Napravnik 1-1-1 +1.75 +1.05

2022 Breeders Cup Juvenile Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,1,2,(2,11),7,2,3,1,8,4,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

  • 10 / 10 (78%) - Beaten no more 4l (Debut)
  • 10 / 10 (79%) - In first 3 (Debut)
  • 10 / 10 (88%) - In the first 3 (LTO)
  • 10 / 10 (89%) - Over 1m or 1m½f (LTO)
  • 10 / 10 (91%) - Previously ran over 1m+
  • 9 / 10 (71%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 9 / 10 (85%) - Debut was in a maiden
  • 9 / 10 (88%) - No bigger than 12/1 (Debut)
  • 8 / 10 (72%) - Beaten no more 2¾l (LTO)
  • 8 / 10 (77%) - Previously won over 6½f+

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Keeneland racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles like the How to Find Winners - 101 Tips to Choose A Winning Horse Racing Bet.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Breeders Cup Juvenile by adding a tip on the race here.

Breeders Cup Juvenile Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +49.98 is when runners had 1 career place in the class. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career place on the going, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-24.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 11 (3,6) [11 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 5 (12,6) [14 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 4 (7,2) [8 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 9 (10,13) [13 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 6 (2,11) [12 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Breeders Cup Juvenile is Santa Anita, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Santa Anita last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, that stallion is War Front who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Storm The Court in 2019 when winning for Peter Eurton at odds of 50/1 under the guidance of Flavien Prat. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there has been a total of 3 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2022 Breeders Cup Juvenile why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

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