Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2026 Kentucky Oaks Preview
The Kentucky Oaks is held each May at the Churchill Downs Racecourse, the Grade 1 is open to three-year-old fillies only and is run over one mile and one furlong.
The race was established in 1875 and is usually run the day before the Kentucky Derby takes place. The winner is presented with a garland of lilies, which is also known as the "Lillies for the Fillies".
Kentucky Oaks Information:
To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Churchill Downs tips on the day of the race. Do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist, or are they predicting other runners?
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Kentucky Oaks market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2025 when the race had an over-round of 122%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Kentucky Oaks, the over-round has been 123%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £123 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Kentucky Oaks Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Kentucky Oaks Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Kentucky Oaks races over the last 10 renewals:
- Shedaresthedevil (1:48.28) in 2020
- Malathaat (1:48.99) in 2021
- Monomoy Girl (1:49.13) in 2018
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Kentucky Oaks next time out, then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of +0.38. Whilst we wait for the 2026 Kentucky Oaks, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 10 renewals, it was Shedaresthedevil, trained by Brad H Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux, who set the fastest winning time in the Kentucky Oaks. That runner won the race in a time of 1:48.28 in 2020. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike E Smith with Abel Tasman who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 1:51.62 in the 2017 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Kentucky Oaks Past Winners
Here are the Kentucky Oaks past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Kentucky Oaks are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 1:50.15 | Good Cheer (USA) 3yo 8-9 (10 of 13) 7/5F | Luis Saez Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2024 1:50.83 | Thorpedo Anna (USA) 3yo 8-9 (4 of 14) 9/2 | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr Kenneth McPeek (USA) |
| 2023 1:49.77 | Pretty Mischievous (USA) 3yo 8-9 (14 of 14) 104/10 | Tyler Gaffalione Brendan P Walsh (USA) |
| 2022 1:49.44 | Secret Oath (USA) 3yo 8-9 (1 of 14) 22/5 | Luis Saez D Wayne Lukas (USA) |
| 2021 1:48.99 | Malathaat (USA) 3yo 8-9 (9 of 13) 5/2F | John R Velazquez Todd Pletcher (USA) |
| 2020 1:48.28 | Shedaresthedevil (USA) 3yo 8-9 (7 of 9) 151/10 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2019 1:50.17 | Serengeti Empress (USA) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 14) 13/1 | Jose L Ortiz Thomas Amoss (USA) |
| 2018 1:49.13 | Monomoy Girl (USA) 3yo 8-9 (14 of 14) 13/5 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2017 1:51.62 | Abel Tasman (USA) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 14) 92/10 | Mike E Smith Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2016 1:50.53 | Cathryn Sophia (USA) 3yo 8-9 (12 of 14) 47/10 | Javier Castellano John C Servis (USA) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kentucky Oaks have been based:
- USA: 10 winners with an additional 19 placings from 127 runners
- CAN: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 5 runners
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Kentucky Oaks Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Kentucky Oaks over the last 10 renewals is Brad H Cox, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Monomoy Girl (2018), Shedaresthedevil (2020) and Good Cheer (2025).
Here are some of the top Kentucky Oaks trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad H Cox | 13-3-4 | +9.10 | +4.96 |
| Kenneth McPeek | 9-1-3 | -3.50 | -2.78 |
| Todd Pletcher | 8-1-3 | -4.50 | -2.95 |
| Bob Baffert | 5-1-2 | +5.20 | +2.09 |
| Thomas Amoss | 4-1-1 | +10.00 | +4.80 |
| Brendan P Walsh | 2-1-1 | +9.40 | +5.24 |
| John C Servis | 2-1-1 | +3.70 | +1.82 |
| D Wayne Lukas | 2-1-1 | +3.40 | +1.64 |
| Steven Asmussen | 9-0-1 | -9.00 | -7.41 |
| Chad C Brown | 5-0-3 | -5.00 | +0.57 |
Kentucky Oaks Jockey Statistics
There are two leading jockeys in the Kentucky Oaks over the last 10 renewals, with both Luis Saez and Florent Geroux, who have both won the race two times. Luis Saez winners have been with Secret Oath (2022) and Good Cheer (2025). Florent Geroux winners have been with Monomoy Girl (2018) and Shedaresthedevil (2020).
Here are some of the top Kentucky Oaks jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Saez | 9-2-2 | -1.20 | -3.52 |
| Florent Geroux | 8-2-2 | +11.70 | +4.62 |
| Jose L Ortiz | 7-1-3 | +7.00 | +9.50 |
| Javier Castellano | 7-1-2 | -1.30 | +0.32 |
| Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr | 7-1-1 | -1.50 | -3.30 |
| John R Velazquez | 7-1-4 | -3.50 | +0.54 |
| Tyler Gaffalione | 5-1-2 | +6.40 | +2.99 |
| Mike E Smith | 4-1-2 | +6.20 | +3.25 |
| Irad Ortiz Jr | 8-0-4 | -8.00 | -3.38 |
| Flavien Prat | 8-0-0 | -8.00 | -8.00 |
2026 Kentucky Oaks Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 6, 11, 3, 5, 3, 1, 2, 4, 2, 1
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Oost in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 10 / 10 (41%) - No bigger than 27/10 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (45%) - Within the first 6 of the market
- 10 / 10 (45%) - No bigger than 151/10
- 10 / 10 (56%) - Had 2 - 6 wins (Career)
- 10 / 10 (64%) - Highest Won is not LST/Cl2
- 10 / 10 (65%) - Ran over 1m - 1m½f (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (67%) - Break of 27 - 145 days (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (68%) - No bigger than 39/5 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - In a field of 6 - 10 (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - No bigger than 63/5 (Career Place)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - No bigger than 63/5 (Career Win)
- 10 / 10 (72%) - No bigger than 84/5 (Career)
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Carried 118 - 122lbs (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Had 1 - 3 wins (180 Days)
- 10 / 10 (80%) - Ran on FS (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Churchill Downs racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Kentucky Oaks. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks by adding a tip on the race here.
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Kentucky Oaks Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +31.30, is when runners had 6 career starts in Flat (AW) races.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career win in Flat (AW) races, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-43.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 10 (4,12) [13 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 4 (12,3) [14 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 14 (3,2) [14 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 1 (4,9) [14 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 9 (11,10) [13 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Kentucky Oaks are Fair Grounds and Keeneland; there have been a total of 3 winners from each of those courses.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Kentucky Oaks; that stallion is Uncle Mo, who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Shedaresthedevil in 2020, winning for Brad H Cox at odds of 151/10 under the guidance of Florent Geroux. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 2 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post. If you are interested in other races at the Churchill Downs racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Kentucky Derby.
Route to the Kentucky Oaks
Many trainers will target races to use as prep races before coming to the Kentucky Oaks, these are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Good Cheer Fair Grounds - 1st of 8 (2/5) | Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks |
| 2024 - Thorpedo Anna Oaklawn Park - 1st of 10 (37/10) | Fantasy Stakes |
| 2023 - Pretty Mischievous Fair Grounds - 2nd of 5 (23/10) | Fair Grounds Oaks presented by Fasig-Tipton |
| 2022 - Secret Oath Oaklawn Park - 3rd of 9 (7/5) | Arkansas Derby |
| 2021 - Malathaat Keeneland - 1st of 6 (6/4) | Central Bank Ashland Stakes |
| 2020 - Shedaresthedevil Indiana Grand - 1st of 8 (8/5) | Indiana Oaks |
| 2019 - Serengeti Empress Fair Grounds - 7th of 7 (3/10) | Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks |
| 2018 - Monomoy Girl Keeneland - 1st of 7 (3/10) | Central Bank Ashland Stakes |
| 2017 - Abel Tasman Santa Anita - 2nd of 7 (19/10) | Santa Anita Oaks Stakes |
| 2016 - Cathryn Sophia Keeneland - 3rd of 5 (1/2) | Central Bank Ashland Stakes |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Kentucky Oaks Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
Darren Brett
Tipster Competition Manager
Andy Powell
Content Editor
