Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Kentucky Oaks Preview
The Kentucky Oaks is held each May at the Churchill Downs Racecourse, the Grade 1 is open to three-year-old fillies only and is run over one mile and one furlong.
The race was established in 1875 and is usually run the day before the Kentucky Derby takes place, the winner is presented with a garland of lilies which is also known as the "Lillies for the Fillies".
Kentucky Oaks Information:
Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Churchill Downs tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Churchill Downs Racecourse section for links to these.
How competitive is the Kentucky Oaks market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2024 when the race had an over-round of 122%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Kentucky Oaks, the over-round has been 123%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £123 which is bet.
Kentucky Oaks Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Kentucky Oaks next time out then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -1.37. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Kentucky Oaks see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 10 renewals, it was Shedaresthedevil, trained by Brad H Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux who set the fastest winning time in the Kentucky Oaks, the runner won the race in a time of 1:48.28 when winning the race in 2020. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike E Smith with Abel Tasman who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 1:51.62 in the 2017 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Kentucky Oaks over the last 10 renewals:
- Shedaresthedevil (1:48.28) in 2020
- Malathaat (1:48.99) in 2021
- Monomoy Girl (1:49.13) in 2018
Kentucky Oaks Past Winners
Here are the Kentucky Oaks past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Kentucky Oaks as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 1:50.83 | Thorpedo Anna (USA) 3yo 8-9 (4 of 14) 9/2 | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr Kenneth McPeek (USA) |
| 2023 1:49.77 | Pretty Mischievous (USA) 3yo 8-9 (14 of 14) 104/10 | Tyler Gaffalione Brendan P Walsh (USA) |
| 2022 1:49.44 | Secret Oath (USA) 3yo 8-9 (1 of 14) 22/5 | Luis Saez D Wayne Lukas (USA) |
| 2021 1:48.99 | Malathaat (USA) 3yo 8-9 (9 of 13) 5/2F | John R Velazquez Todd Pletcher (USA) |
| 2020 1:48.28 | Shedaresthedevil (USA) 3yo 8-9 (7 of 9) 151/10 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2019 1:50.17 | Serengeti Empress (USA) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 14) 13/1 | Jose L Ortiz Thomas Amoss (USA) |
| 2018 1:49.13 | Monomoy Girl (USA) 3yo 8-9 (14 of 14) 13/5 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2017 1:51.62 | Abel Tasman (USA) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 14) 92/10 | Mike E Smith Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2016 1:50.53 | Cathryn Sophia (USA) 3yo 8-9 (12 of 14) 47/10 | Javier Castellano John C Servis (USA) |
| 2015 1:50.45 | Lovely Maria (USA) 3yo 8-9 (7 of 14) 63/10 | Kerwin D Clark J Larry Jones (USA) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kentucky Oaks have been based:
- USA: 10 winners with an additional 19 placings from 129 runners
- CAN: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 4 runners
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Kentucky Oaks Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Kentucky Oaks over the last 10 renewals is Brad H Cox who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Monomoy Girl (2018) and Shedaresthedevil (2020). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Kentucky Oaks, Steven Asmussen has sent a total of 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Kentucky Oaks trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad H Cox | 12-2-3 | +7.70 | +4.12 |
| Todd Pletcher | 10-1-3 | -6.50 | -4.95 |
| Kenneth McPeek | 8-1-3 | -2.50 | -1.78 |
| Bob Baffert | 4-1-2 | +6.20 | +3.09 |
| Thomas Amoss | 3-1-1 | +11.00 | +5.80 |
| J Larry Jones | 3-1-2 | +4.30 | +2.84 |
| Brendan P Walsh | 2-1-1 | +9.40 | +5.24 |
| John C Servis | 2-1-1 | +3.70 | +1.82 |
| D Wayne Lukas | 2-1-1 | +3.40 | +1.64 |
| Steven Asmussen | 10-0-2 | -10.00 | -5.22 |
Kentucky Oaks Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Kentucky Oaks over the last 10 renewals is Florent Geroux who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Monomoy Girl (2018) and Shedaresthedevil (2020).
Here are some of the top Kentucky Oaks jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florent Geroux | 8-2-3 | +11.70 | +5.68 |
| Javier Castellano | 8-1-2 | -2.30 | -0.68 |
| Luis Saez | 8-1-1 | -2.60 | -4.36 |
| John R Velazquez | 7-1-3 | -3.50 | -1.74 |
| Jose L Ortiz | 6-1-3 | +8.00 | +10.50 |
| Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr | 6-1-1 | -0.50 | -2.30 |
| Tyler Gaffalione | 5-1-2 | +6.40 | +2.99 |
| Mike E Smith | 5-1-2 | +5.20 | +2.25 |
| Kerwin D Clark | 1-1-1 | +6.30 | +3.78 |
| Irad Ortiz Jr | 8-0-4 | -8.00 | -3.38 |
2025 Kentucky Oaks Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 4, 6, 11, 3, 5, 3, 1, 2, 4, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 10 / 10 (43%) - No bigger than 27/10 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (43%) - No bigger than 151/10
- 10 / 10 (45%) - Within the first 6 of the market
- 10 / 10 (63%) - Break of 27 - 145 days (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (63%) - Ran over 1m - 1m½f (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (67%) - No bigger than 63/5 (Career Win)
- 10 / 10 (67%) - In a field of 6 - 10 (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - Carried 118 - 122lbs (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - Had 1 - 3 wins (180 Days)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - No bigger than 39/5 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - No bigger than 63/5 (Career Place)
- 10 / 10 (72%) - No bigger than 84/5 (Career)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Ran on FS (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (80%) - Had 1 - 4 wins (Career)
- 10 / 10 (81%) - Ran in 3 - 6 races (1 Year)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Churchill Downs racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Kentucky Oaks. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks by adding a tip on the race here.
Kentucky Oaks Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +21.50 is when runners had 2 wins in the past 180 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 wins in the past 180 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-38.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 4 (12,3) [14 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 14 (3,2) [14 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 1 (4,9) [14 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 9 (11,10) [13 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 7 (1,5) [9 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Kentucky Oaks is Keeneland, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Keeneland last time out.
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kentucky Oaks despite multiple attempts:
- Medaglia dOro (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Tapit (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Uncle Mo (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Shedaresthedevil in 2020, winning for Brad H Cox at odds of 151/10 under the guidance of Florent Geroux. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there have been 1 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2025 Kentucky Oaks. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Kentucky Oaks Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
Darren Brett
Tipster Competition Manager
Andy Powell
Content Editor
