Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Kentucky Oaks Preview
The Kentucky Oaks is held each May at the Churchill Downs Racecourse, the Grade 1 is open to three-year-old fillies only and is run over one mile and one furlong.
The race was established in 1875 and is usually run the day before the Kentucky Derby takes place. The winner is presented with a garland of lilies, which is also known as the "Lillies for the Fillies".
For sponsorship purposes, the 2025 renewal of the Kentucky Oaks will hold the title of 'Longines Kentucky Oaks'.
Kentucky Oaks Information:
We also have a dedicated Churchill Downs tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Kentucky Oaks market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2024 when the race had an over-round of 122%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Kentucky Oaks, the over-round has been 123%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £123 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 Kentucky Oaks Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Kentucky Oaks Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the Kentucky Oaks Trend Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run Kentucky Oaks over the last 10 renewals:
- Shedaresthedevil (1:48.28) in 2020
- Malathaat (1:48.99) in 2021
- Monomoy Girl (1:49.13) in 2018
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Kentucky Oaks next time out, then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 10 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -0.62. Ahead of the 2025 Kentucky Oaks, why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2017 renewal when Abel Tasman from Bob Baffert under the guidance of Mike E Smith, won in a time of 1:51.62, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Shedaresthedevil, trained by Brad H Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux set the quickest time of 1:48.28 in the 2020 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Kentucky Oaks Past Winners
Here are the Kentucky Oaks past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Kentucky Oaks are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 1:50.83 | Thorpedo Anna (USA) 3yo 8-9 (4 of 14) 9/2 | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr Kenneth McPeek (USA) |
| 2023 1:49.77 | Pretty Mischievous (USA) 3yo 8-9 (14 of 14) 104/10 | Tyler Gaffalione Brendan P Walsh (USA) |
| 2022 1:49.44 | Secret Oath (USA) 3yo 8-9 (1 of 14) 22/5 | Luis Saez D Wayne Lukas (USA) |
| 2021 1:48.99 | Malathaat (USA) 3yo 8-9 (9 of 13) 5/2F | John R Velazquez Todd Pletcher (USA) |
| 2020 1:48.28 | Shedaresthedevil (USA) 3yo 8-9 (7 of 9) 151/10 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2019 1:50.17 | Serengeti Empress (USA) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 14) 13/1 | Jose L Ortiz Thomas Amoss (USA) |
| 2018 1:49.13 | Monomoy Girl (USA) 3yo 8-9 (14 of 14) 13/5 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2017 1:51.62 | Abel Tasman (USA) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 14) 92/10 | Mike E Smith Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2016 1:50.53 | Cathryn Sophia (USA) 3yo 8-9 (12 of 14) 47/10 | Javier Castellano John C Servis (USA) |
| 2015 1:50.45 | Lovely Maria (USA) 3yo 8-9 (7 of 14) 63/10 | Kerwin D Clark J Larry Jones (USA) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kentucky Oaks have been based:
- USA: 10 winners with an additional 19 placings from 129 runners
- CAN: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 4 runners
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Kentucky Oaks Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Kentucky Oaks over the last 10 renewals is Brad H Cox, who has won the race two times, with those two winners coming from Monomoy Girl (2018) and Shedaresthedevil (2020).
Here are the Kentucky Oaks trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad H Cox | 12-2-3 | +7.70 | +4.12 |
| Kenneth McPeek | 8-1-3 | -2.50 | -1.78 |
| Bob Baffert | 4-1-2 | +6.20 | +3.09 |
| Thomas Amoss | 3-1-1 | +11.00 | +5.80 |
| Chad C Brown | 4-0-3 | -4.00 | +1.57 |
| Mark Casse | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -1.81 |
| George Weaver | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| H Graham Motion | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Kentucky Oaks Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Kentucky Oaks over the last 10 renewals is Florent Geroux, who has won the race two times, with those two winners coming from Monomoy Girl (2018) and Shedaresthedevil (2020).
Here are the Kentucky Oaks jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florent Geroux (Simply Joking) | 8-2-3 | +11.70 | +5.68 |
| Luis Saez (Good Cheer) | 8-1-1 | -2.60 | -4.36 |
| John R Velazquez (Bless The Broken) | 7-1-3 | -3.50 | -1.74 |
| Jose L Ortiz (Quietside) | 6-1-3 | +8.00 | +10.50 |
| Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr (Take Charge Milady) | 6-1-1 | -0.50 | -2.30 |
| Irad Ortiz Jr (Fondly) | 8-0-4 | -8.00 | -3.38 |
| Flavien Prat (Ballerina dOro) | 7-0-0 | -7.00 | -7.00 |
| Manuel Franco (Five G) | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| Junior Alvarado (Annas Promise) | 2-0-1 | -2.00 | -1.15 |
| Umberto Rispoli (Quickick) | 1-0-1 | -1.00 | +4.50 |
2025 Kentucky Oaks Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 4, 6, 11, 3, 5, 3, 1, 2, 4, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Oost in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 10 / 10 (43%) - No bigger than 27/10 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (43%) - No bigger than 151/10
- 10 / 10 (45%) - Within the first 6 of the market
- 10 / 10 (63%) - Break of 27 - 145 days (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (63%) - Ran over 1m - 1m½f (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (66%) - Highest Won is not LST/Cl2
- 10 / 10 (67%) - No bigger than 63/5 (Career Win)
- 10 / 10 (67%) - In a field of 6 - 10 (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - Carried 118 - 122lbs (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - Had 1 - 3 wins (180 Days)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - No bigger than 39/5 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - No bigger than 63/5 (Career Place)
- 10 / 10 (72%) - No bigger than 84/5 (Career)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Ran on FS (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (80%) - Had 1 - 4 wins (Career)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Churchill Downs racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Kentucky Oaks. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Kentucky Oaks Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +21.50, is when runners had 2 wins in the past 180 days.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 wins in the past 180 days, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-38.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 4 (12,3) [14 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 14 (3,2) [14 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 1 (4,9) [14 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 9 (11,10) [13 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 7 (1,5) [9 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Kentucky Oaks is Keeneland, there have been a total of 4 winners of this race who ran at Keeneland last time out.
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kentucky Oaks despite multiple attempts:
- Medaglia dOro (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Tapit (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Uncle Mo (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Shedaresthedevil in 2020, winning for Brad H Cox at odds of 151/10 under the guidance of Florent Geroux. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 1 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Kentucky Oaks, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
If you are interested in other races at the Churchill Downs racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Oaks Trend Shortlist
Churchill Downs will host the 2025 renewal of the Kentucky Oaks, which will be run at 10:51 pm on Friday, 2nd May 2025, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Quietside (8/1)
- John Alexander Ortiz (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
- Jose L Ortiz (6-1-3 +8.00 / +10.50)
Others: Five G (14/15), Good Cheer (14/15), Ballerina dOro (13/15), La Cara (13/15), Fondly (12/15), Simply Joking (12/15), Drexel Hill (10/15), Tenma (10/15), Annas Promise (9/15), Take Charge Milady (9/15), Quickick (8/15), Bless The Broken (7/15) and Early On (7/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (10:40 am Monday 28th April 2025), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Kentucky Oaks Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
Darren Brett
Tipster Competition Manager
Andy Powell
Content Editor
