You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2026 Kentucky Oaks Preview
The Kentucky Oaks is held each May at the Churchill Downs Racecourse. The Grade 1 is open to three-year-old fillies only and is run over one mile and one furlong.
The race was established in 1875 and is usually run the day before the Kentucky Derby takes place. The winner is presented with a garland of lilies, which is also known as the "Lillies for the Fillies".
For sponsorship purposes, the 2026 renewal of the Kentucky Oaks will hold the title of 'Longines Kentucky Oaks'.
Kentucky Oaks Information:
Our dedicated Churchill Downs tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Kentucky Oaks, but will also have predictions for each meeting at Churchill Downs throughout the season, so be sure to head over there.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Kentucky Oaks market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2007, when the race had an over-round of 120%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Kentucky Oaks, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out ÂŁ100 for every ÂŁ122 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Kentucky Oaks Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Kentucky Oaks Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the Kentucky Oaks Trend Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run Kentucky Oaks races over the last 20 renewals:
- Shedaresthedevil (1:48.28) in 2020
- Untapable (1:48.68) in 2014
- Rachel Alexandra (1:48.87) in 2009
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Kentucky Oaks next time out, then you would have backed a total of 8 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of +1.68. Whilst we wait for the 2026 Kentucky Oaks, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Shedaresthedevil, trained by Brad H Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux, who set the fastest winning time in the Kentucky Oaks. That runner won the race in a time of 1:48.28 in 2020. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike E Smith with Abel Tasman who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 1:51.62 in the 2017 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Kentucky Oaks Past Winners
Here are the Kentucky Oaks past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Kentucky Oaks are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 1:50.15 | Good Cheer (USA) 3yo 8-9 (10 of 13) 7/5F | Luis Saez Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2024 1:50.83 | Thorpedo Anna (USA) 3yo 8-9 (4 of 14) 9/2 | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr Kenneth McPeek (USA) |
| 2023 1:49.77 | Pretty Mischievous (USA) 3yo 8-9 (14 of 14) 104/10 | Tyler Gaffalione Brendan P Walsh (USA) |
| 2022 1:49.44 | Secret Oath (USA) 3yo 8-9 (1 of 14) 22/5 | Luis Saez D Wayne Lukas (USA) |
| 2021 1:48.99 | Malathaat (USA) 3yo 8-9 (9 of 13) 5/2F | John R Velazquez Todd Pletcher (USA) |
| 2020 1:48.28 | Shedaresthedevil (USA) 3yo 8-9 (7 of 9) 151/10 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2019 1:50.17 | Serengeti Empress (USA) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 14) 13/1 | Jose L Ortiz Thomas Amoss (USA) |
| 2018 1:49.13 | Monomoy Girl (USA) 3yo 8-9 (14 of 14) 13/5 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2017 1:51.62 | Abel Tasman (USA) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 14) 92/10 | Mike E Smith Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2016 1:50.53 | Cathryn Sophia (USA) 3yo 8-9 (12 of 14) 47/10 | Javier Castellano John C Servis (USA) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kentucky Oaks have been based:
- USA: 20 winners with an additional 38 placings from 246 runners
- CAN: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 8 runners
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
2025 Kentucky Oaks Replay
Kentucky Oaks Trainer Statistics
There are two leading trainers in the Kentucky Oaks over the last 20 renewals, with both Todd Pletcher and Brad H Cox, who have both won the race three times. Todd Pletcher winners have been with Rags To Riches (2007), Princess Of Sylmar (2013) and Malathaat (2021). Brad H Cox winners have been with Monomoy Girl (2018), Shedaresthedevil (2020) and Good Cheer (2025). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Kentucky Oaks is Bob Baffert (2 wins).
Here are the Kentucky Oaks trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2026 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pletcher | 23-3-10 | +23.00 | +13.72 |
| Brad H Cox | 13-3-4 | +9.10 | +4.96 |
| Bob Baffert | 12-2-3 | +5.50 | -0.13 |
| Brendan P Walsh | 2-1-1 | +9.40 | +5.24 |
| Mark Casse | 7-0-1 | -7.00 | -4.81 |
| Chad C Brown | 5-0-3 | -5.00 | +0.57 |
| D Whitworth Beckman | 2-0-1 | -2.00 | +1.70 |
| Michael McCarthy | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Rob Atras | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Saffie A Joseph Jr | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Kentucky Oaks Jockey Statistics
There are two leading jockeys in the Kentucky Oaks over the last 20 renewals, with both Mike E Smith and Luis Saez, who have both won the race twice. Mike E Smith winners have been with Princess Of Sylmar (2013) and Abel Tasman (2017). Luis Saez's winners have been with Secret Oath (2022) and Good Cheer (2025).
Here are the Kentucky Oaks jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2026 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike E Smith (Bottle Of Rouge) | 10-2-3 | +40.20 | +21.65 |
| Luis Saez (Dazzling Dame) | 9-2-2 | -1.20 | -3.52 |
| Javier Castellano (Prom Queen) | 12-1-5 | -6.30 | -1.93 |
| Jose L Ortiz (Always A Runner) | 7-1-3 | +7.00 | +9.50 |
| Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr (Resist) | 7-1-1 | -1.50 | -3.30 |
| Tyler Gaffalione (Bella Ballerina) | 5-1-2 | +6.40 | +2.99 |
| Irad Ortiz Jr (Zany) | 9-0-4 | -9.00 | -4.38 |
| Flavien Prat (Explora) | 8-0-0 | -8.00 | -8.00 |
| Juan J Hernandez (Meaning) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Dylan Davis (Lovely Grey) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Ramon A Vazquez (Pashmina) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
2026 Kentucky Oaks Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 11, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 3, 4, 1, 4, 6, 11, 3, 5, 3, 1, 2, 4, 2, 1
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 20 / 20 (60%) - No bigger than 26/5 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (63%) - Achieved an RPR of 103+ (Season)
- 20 / 20 (67%) - No bigger than 63/5 (Career Place)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Break of 26 - 75 days (Last Place)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - No bigger than 27/1 (Career)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Off a break of 26 - 57 days
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Carried 116 - 120lbs (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Ran on FS (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Beaten no more -9½l (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Had 1 - 3 placings (90 Days)
- 19 / 20 (61%) - Ran over 1m - 1m½f (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (62%) - Break of 26 - 145 days (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (63%) - Carried 118 - 122lbs (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (70%) - In a field of 4 - 10 (Last Win)
- 16 / 20 (56%) - Either 1st or 3rd (Last Time Out)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Churchill Downs racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Kentucky Oaks. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over ÂŁ6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Kentucky Oaks Trend Shortlist
Churchill Downs will host the 2026 renewal of the Kentucky Oaks, which will be run at 1:40 am on Saturday, 2nd May 2026, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer, jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Bottle Of Rouge (20/1)
- Bob Baffert (12-2-3 +5.50 / -0.13)
- Mike E Smith (10-2-3 +40.20 / +21.65)
- 15/15 Percys Bar (5/1)
- Ben Colebrook (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
- Luan Machado (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
Others: Zany (14/15), Counting Stars (14/15), Search Party (13/15), Bella Ballerina (13/15), Meaning (13/15), Explora (13/15), Prom Queen (13/15), Dazzling Dame (12/15), Resist (12/15), Always A Runner (11/15), Nycon (9/15), Brooklyn Blonde (7/15), Lovely Grey (7/15), My Miss Mo (7/15) and Pashmina (7/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (3:11 pm Sunday 26th April 2026), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Kentucky Oaks Trend Analysis
â The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +37.40, is when runners had 1 win in the past 90 days.
â The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a best in three result of 2nd, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-46.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 10 (4,12) [13 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 4 (12,3) [14 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 14 (3,2) [14 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 1 (4,9) [14 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 9 (11,10) [13 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Kentucky Oaks are Fair Grounds and Keeneland; there have been a total of 5 winners from each of those courses.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Kentucky Oaks:
- Medaglia dOro (3 Wins)
- Proud Citizen (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kentucky Oaks despite multiple attempts:
- Unbridleds Song (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Uncle Mo (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Lemons Forever in 2006, winning for Dallas Stewart at odds of 47/1 under the guidance of M Guidry. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 7 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post. If you are interested in other races at the Churchill Downs racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Kentucky Derby?
Route to the Kentucky Oaks
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Kentucky Oaks. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Good Cheer Fair Grounds - 1st of 8 (2/5) | Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks |
| 2024 - Thorpedo Anna Oaklawn Park - 1st of 10 (37/10) | Fantasy Stakes |
| 2023 - Pretty Mischievous Fair Grounds - 2nd of 5 (23/10) | Fair Grounds Oaks presented by Fasig-Tipton |
| 2022 - Secret Oath Oaklawn Park - 3rd of 9 (7/5) | Arkansas Derby |
| 2021 - Malathaat Keeneland - 1st of 6 (6/4) | Central Bank Ashland Stakes |
| 2020 - Shedaresthedevil Indiana Grand - 1st of 8 (8/5) | Indiana Oaks |
| 2019 - Serengeti Empress Fair Grounds - 7th of 7 (3/10) | Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks |
| 2018 - Monomoy Girl Keeneland - 1st of 7 (3/10) | Central Bank Ashland Stakes |
| 2017 - Abel Tasman Santa Anita - 2nd of 7 (19/10) | Santa Anita Oaks Stakes |
| 2016 - Cathryn Sophia Keeneland - 3rd of 5 (1/2) | Central Bank Ashland Stakes |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Kentucky Oaks Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
