Does the Cheltenham Festival form stack up at Aintree ?
With the dust settling after the Cheltenham festival and the attention of national hunt fans switching to the Aintree meeting, the same old questions crop up each year when trying to work out the best Grand National meeting tips.
Will the Cheltenham form hold up at Aintree?
The two tracks are very different in nature with the undulations and steep climb up the Cheltenham hill compared to the flat sharpish turns of Aintree, so any horse winning at both meetings is deserving plenty of respect in showing top-class festival form and versatility.
The other question being with around three weeks break between both festivals...
Will those who had tough races at Cheltenham be ready for Aintree?
Before we delve into greater detail looking at the Aintree meeting trends and stats as a whole and an in-depth look at the Grand National trends, the cold hard figures over the past ten years (2012 inclusive) of those coming here via competing at the Cheltenham Festival last time out are:-
111 winners and a further 195 placed from 1021 runners which is slightly better than a 1 winner in ten strike rate and a level stakes loss of £201.74 points to industry SP, although exchange players would have shown a £13.47 point level stakes profit to Betfair SP thanks to some nice priced winners.
That would have been a hell of a lot of bets placed during the three days of the Aintree meeting over the past ten seasons following those blind and obviously many would have taken each other on in the same race in any case.
The figures in reality when referring to the initial question and those showing the quality in winning at both meetings are much more manageable and show a nice level stakes profit:-
27 winners (19 placed) from 78 runners (34.6%) followed up with a win here after winning at the Cheltenham Festival, in the process showing a £29.63 profit to £1 stakes.
Breaking those 27 winners down we are looking at -
- 23 from 61 runners won a Non-Handicap race
- 20 from 56 runners won a Grade 1 event
- 15 from 37 runners won a Hurdle race
- 5 from 6 runners won a Novices Hurdle here
Don't forget to check out the daily Aintree tips from OLBG's Best Horse Racing Tipsters.
Grand National Meeting Trainer Statistics
Nicky Henderson leads the way numerically at Aintree since 2012 with 32 winners from 209 runners although backing all Nicky's runners would have resulted in a £27.78 loss to £1 stakes
Paul Nicholls is next on the numerical list with 17 winners from 207 runners (8%) showing an £85.49 loss to £1 stakes. Colin Tizzard is third on the list with 14 winners from 74 runners and a very healthy LSP of +114.49!
Willie Mullins is the top Irish trainer on the list and the only other trainer with double-figured winners, he has had 12 from 89 runners but backing all his runners would have resulted in an LSP of -21.86.
The following trainers have had no luck having had plenty of runners at the Grand National meeting since 2012 but failed to hit a winner:
- 0-54 Venetia Williams
- 0-24 Fergal O'Brien
- 0-18 Ian Williams
- 0-17 Brian Ellison
- 0-15 Noel Meade
The following trainers have hit a single winner but have sent out a lot of runners in doing so and have a low strike rate:
- 1-41 (2%) Charlie Longsdon
- 1-37 (3%) Evan Williams
- 1-36 (3%) Rebecca Curtis
- 1-34 (3%) Warren Greatrex
- 1-29 (3%) Tim Vaughan
Here's a table of how some of the current trainers have performed at the Grand National meeting since 2012:
|W P Mullins||89-12-29||-21.86||-20.28|
|Henry De Bromhead||51-6-16||+21.00||+23.81|
You can choose to follow a trainer on the statistics above and choose the best bookmaker for Aintree when placing your bets, to get the best offers and betting odds.
Grand National Meeting Jockey Statistics
Nico de Boinville is the joint leading jockey with 8 winners from 63 mounts (13%), showing a £28.82 loss to £1 stakes.
Joining Nico on 8 winners is Robbie Power and that is from half the rides Nico has had, just 31 rides giving him a strike rate of 25.8% and an LSP of +43.00
Both Harry Cobden and Jack Kennedy are worth mention as both show an overall profit, Cobden with +37.41 and Kennedy with +25.50.
At the other end of the spectrum, here are the jockeys who have failed to ride a winner over the past ten years from 20+ rides:
- 0-71 Aidan Coleman
- 0-30 Henry Brooke
- 0-23 William Kennedy
- 0-21 Richie McLernon
- 0-21 Tom Cannon
and these are the jockeys who have recorded a single win from 30+ rides giving them a low strike rate:
- 1-34 (3%) Nick Scholfield
- 1-32 (3%) Jamie Moore
- 1-32 (3%) Denis O'Regan
Here's a table of how some of the current jockeys have performed at the Grand National meeting since 2012:
|Nico de Boinville||63-8-15||-28.82||-30.24|
2022 Grand National Meeting Day One Trends Preview
The three day Grand National meeting kicks off at 1.45 pm on Thursday 8th April, four Grade 1 events form part of a seven-race card featuring the Betway Aintree Hurdle (15.25 pm) and the Betway Bowl Chase (14.50).
13:45 - Manifesto Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1 - 2m4f)
14:20 - Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle (Grand 1 - 2m1f)
14:50 - Bowl Steeple Chase (Grade 1 - 3m1f)
15:25 - Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1 - 2m4f)
16:05 - Foxhunters’ Steeple Chase (Class 2 - 2m5f)
16:40 - Red Rum Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3 - 2m)
17:15 - Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open NH Flat (Grade 2 - 2m1f )
Don't forget to check out the free Aintree tips available the evening before race day.
2022 Grand National Meeting Day Two Trends Preview
Day 2 of the Grand National meeting is 'Ladies Day' or 'Fabulous Friday', the highlights on the track being the JLT 'Melling Chase' plus there is the Randox Health Topham Chase over the Grand National fences.
13:45 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3 - 2m4f)
14:20 - Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1 - 2m½f)
14:50 - Mildmay Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1 - 3m1f)
15:25 - Marsh Chase (Melling Chase) (Grade 1 - 2m4f)
16:05 - Topham Steeple Chase (Grade 3 - 2m5f)
16:40 - Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1 - 3m½f)
17:15 - Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle (Class 2 - 2m½f)
Don't forget to check out the day 2 Aintree tips from OLBG's horse racing tipsters.
2022 Grand National Meeting Day Three Trends Preview
The Grand National is obviously the showpiece of the Aintree meeting and day 3 also includes three Grade 1 events, the feature of those being the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle.
13:45 - EFT Systems Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3 - 3m½f)
14:25 - Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1 - 2m4f)
15:00 - Maghull Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1 - 2m)
15:35 - Stayers’ Hurdle (Registered as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1 - 3m½f)
16:15 - Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed - 3m1f)
18:20 - Champion Standard Open NH Flat (Grade 2 - 2m1f)
you enjoyed reading the Aintree and Grand National trends analysis and hopefully will have helped narrow down your shortlist for potential Aintree bets and winners.
Best of luck!
2022 Grand National Preview
The runner which holds the record over past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2001 renewal when Red Marauder from N B Mason who under the guidance of Richard Guest, won in a time of 11:00.10, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Many Clouds, trained by Oliver Sherwood and ridden by Leighton Aspell set the quickest time of 8:56.80 in the 2015 renewal.
These are the top three quickest run Grand National over the last 20 renewals:
- 2015 - Many Clouds (8:56.80)
- 2019 - Tiger Roll (9:01.00)
- 2011 - Ballabriggs (9:01.20)
How competitive is the Grand National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 134%. The race in 2015 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 165%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Grand National, the over-round has been 150% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £150 which is bet.
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Grand National next time out then you would have back a total of 0 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -18.00. Before placing your bet on the 2022 Grand National see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.
Grand National Past Winners
Here are the past 10 winners of the Grand National. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Grand National as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
|Minella Times |
8yo 10-3 11/1
|Rachael Blackmore |
Henry De Bromhead
|Tiger Roll |
9yo 11-5 4/1F
|Davy Russell |
|Tiger Roll |
8yo 10-13 10/1
|Davy Russell |
|One For Arthur |
8yo 10-11 14/1
|Derek Fox |
|Rule The World |
9yo 10-7 33/1
|David Mullins |
M F Morris
|Many Clouds |
8yo 11-9 25/1
|Leighton Aspell |
|Pineau De Re |
11yo 10-6 25/1
|Leighton Aspell |
Dr Richard Newland
|Auroras Encore |
11yo 10-3 66/1
|Ryan Mania |
|Neptune Collonges |
11yo 11-6 33/1
|Daryl Jacob |
10yo 11-0 14/1
|Jason Maguire |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Grand National have been based:
- GB: 12 winners with an additional 36 placings from 546 runners
- IRE: 8 winners with an additional 24 placings from 221 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 28 runners
Grand National Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Grand National over the last 20 renewals is Gordon Elliott who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Silver Birch (2007), Tiger Roll (2018) & Tiger Roll (2019). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Grand National, Nicky Henderson (0-21), Philip Hobbs (0-20), Kim Bailey (0-12), Tom George (0-11), Alan King (0-11), Evan Williams (0-10), T M Walsh (0-10) & Peter Bowen (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.
Here are some of the top Grand National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
|W P Mullins||43-1-6||-35.00||-27.23|
|M F Morris||10-1-1||+24.00||+11.63|
Grand National Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Grand National over the last 20 renewals is Davy Russell who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Tiger Roll (2018) & Tiger Roll (2019). There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Grand National, Tom Scudamore (0-19), Aidan Coleman (0-13), Denis O'Regan (0-12), Paddy Brennan (0-11), Sam Twiston-Davies (0-11), Tom O'Brien (0-11), Paul Townend (0-10) & Richie McLernon (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides to the race.
Here are some of the top Grand National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
|Niall P Madden||6-1-1||+6.00||+1.88|
2022 Grand National Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,(BD,F,F),3,PU,(2,F,PU,UR),1,(2,3),(F,PU,REF),(1,6),7,(1,4),6,(3,9),13,(3,UR),5,(2,16),4,PU,1,PU
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (78%) - 1+ placings in past year
- 20 / 20 (86%) - 10+ Starts over fences
- 20 / 20 (88%) - OR of 136+
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Same or up 1-2 classes (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (90%) - Carrying 10-3+
- 19 / 20 (69%) - Best in 3 of at least 3rd
- 19 / 20 (72%) - 3-6 Starts in past 180 days
- 19 / 20 (72%) - First 5 on debut
- 19 / 20 (77%) - 10+ Career placings
- 19 / 20 (82%) - Not 6lbs+ less vs ave OR
- 19 / 20 (83%) - Placed in at least a G3
- 19 / 20 (83%) - 18+ Career starts
- 19 / 20 (84%) - Aged 8yo - 11yo
- 19 / 20 (84%) - Under 6 non-completes
- 19 / 20 (86%) - Carried at least 150lbs LTO
- 18 / 20 (71%) - 4+ Starts in past year
- 18 / 20 (71%) - LTO Class G3/Listed/Cl2
- 18 / 20 (74%) - 3-7 Season runs
- 18 / 20 (76%) - 19-60 Day break
- 17 / 20 (66%) - Placed over at least 25.5f
- 17 / 20 (72%) - 4-8 Career wins
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Aintree racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Grand National. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.
Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Grand National by adding a tip on the race here.
Grand National Trend Analysis
The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +91.00 is when runners ran on Soft ground last time out. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 places in the past year, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-172.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 784 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 11 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Grand National:
- Authorized (2 Wins)
- Montelimar (2 Wins)
- Old Vic (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Grand National despite multiple attempts:
- Flemensfirth (0 Wins from 18 runners)
- Supreme Leader (0 Wins from 15 runners)
- Accordion (0 Wins from 14 runners)
- Kings Theatre (0 Wins from 14 runners)
- Kayf Tara (0 Wins from 10 runners)
- Lute Antique (0 Wins from 10 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Mon Mome in 2009 when winning for Venetia Williams at odds of 100/1 under the guidance of Liam Treadwell. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 4 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2022 Grand National see which other runners today are being back by the best racing tipsters today.