Strong Season Enders: Premier League & Championship Clubs Ranked on End of Season Form

Updated: 475 Football

OLBG examined how every club historically performs during the crucial final games of the season. We looked at results over the last ten Premier League campaigns (from 2011/12 onwards) and the last five in the Championship (given how the league more frequently changes) to see which teams have the best record in this crunch period of fixtures.

Strong Season Enders: Premier League & Championship Clubs Ranked on End of Season Form
Dan Tracey Data Scientist and Football Editor

Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.

We are now fast approaching the business end of the Premier League and Championship seasons, with the title race, fight for European places, and battle to beat the drop all looking like they will go down to the wire in both divisions.

Manchester City and Arsenal continue to battle it out for the top spot, while several teams behind them all push for a top-four spot. It's no different at the bottom of the table either, with no clear favourites to go down and the standings changing drastically from week to week.

The second tier is no different, with the usual cluster of clubs vying for automatic and playoff positions, as well as a very tense battle to stay up at the other end of the table. 

As everything is still to play for, OLBG examined how every club historically performs during the crucial final games of the season. We looked at results over the last eleven Premier League campaigns (from 2012/13 onwards to the present moment in 2022/23) and the last six in the Championship including the 2022/23 season (given how the league more frequently changes) to see which teams have the best record in this crunch period of fixtures.

Without further ado, here’s how every Premier League and Championship club has fared at the end of the season over the last decade…

Premier League End-of-Season Form Rankings

Position Team P W D L GF GA GD PTS PPG Win Ratio %
1 Man City 115 80 16 19 277 95 182 256 2.23 69.57%
2 Brentford 12 8 1 3 24 14 10 25 2.08 66.67%
3 Liverpool 113 73 24 16 232 105 127 243 2.15 64.60%
4 Chelsea 113 67 22 24 199 119 80 223 1.97 59.29%
5 Arsenal 117 67 19 31 206 129 77 220 1.88 57.26%
6 Tottenham 113 64 20 29 219 127 92 212 1.88 56.64%
7 Man United 110 56 24 30 168 126 42 192 1.75 50.91%
8 Leicester 92 42 21 29 152 117 35 147 1.60 45.65%
9 Leeds 25 11 6 8 32 30 2 39 1.56 44.00%

Premier League holders, Manchester City were top of the rankings by some distance, gaining an impressive 69.5% win ratio in all games during the last two months of the season over the last 11 years. They also scored the most goals in this period, with 277 - some 45 more than second-top scorers Liverpool.

Given the Lancashire-based clubs' success over the last decade, it's hardly a surprise that they are at the summit regarding end-of-season form, especially with the fact they have won the league more than anyone else in this time. 

Nevertheless, the numbers are stunning and showcase how good they have been when the pressure is on. If they replicate it in the current campaign, they may overtake Arsenal and hang on to the Premier League title. 

While there is perhaps a surprise name in second place, Brentford finds themselves among the Premier League giants. From the 12 matches that they have contested across our data sample, Thomas Frank’s men have won 66.67% of them.

Form that managed to keep the West London outfit in the Premier League at the end of the 21/22 campaign and if the form can be replicated across the back end of this, European football may soon be delivered to Brentford. 

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool placed third in the table, with a win ratio of 64.6%. The Reds have enjoyed great success under the German and this has coincided with strong performances towards the business end of the campaign, particularly in 2018/19 where they won all of their games in the last two months of the season.

If they can replicate that form at the tail end of this campaign, they may be able to snare a top-four berth in the Premier League, and after their recent exit from this season’s Champions League, a return to Europe’s toughest club competition is in the balance.

While, it is Chelsea that finds themselves in fourth, as they possess a win ratio of 59.29%. Six fewer victories than Liverpool above them and two fewer draws to go with it. However, the Blues are sitting above their two nearest London rivals.

The first of those is Arsenal. With the Gunners currently sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League table, Mikel Arteta may be cautious that the club only has a 57.26% win ratio at the most critical point of the season.

Credit: MDI /

A figure that surely needs to increase between now and the final day. We already know how good Manchester City is when it really comes down to the crunch. Can Arsenal find their own end-of-season groove? 

Tottenham and Manchester United followed Chelsea with win ratios of 53.3% and 52.2%, respectively. Both will have to up their game if they are to prevail in the battle for the top four this season. 

The top 10 is then rounded out by the trio of Leicester, Leeds, and Everton, respectively. All three clubs are in this season’s relegation mix and must touch on their previous late form. Failure to do so and the Championship trapdoor will be ready to collect them. 

Crystal Palace ranked next in 11th and desperately needs to rediscover some winning form. The Eagles are soaring closer to the bottom three this season, and a lack of goals may be the one thing that secures their demotion in May. 

They find themselves positioned just above Wolves and Southampton, but the increased focus will be placed on Newcastle. The Magpies have won just 34% of their late-season fixtures - a figure that Eddie Howe and his players will look to improve quickly. 

When we drop down to the figurative relegation zone, Brighton finds themselves just above the drop, and with a current win ratio of 30.91%, European football may pass them by if it does not improve. 

While Fulham has little to shout about along with Aston Villa, both are hitting 29% respectively in end-of-season wins. Thankfully neither team will be found in the latest Premier League relegation battle. 

A shout should also go to Nottingham Forest as they prop up this particular Premier League table. No wins to their name but at the same time, they have only played one fixture in our data sample and manager Steve Cooper should not be alarmed just yet. 

Championship End of Season Form Rankings  

Position Team GF GA W D L P Win Ratio %
1 Watford 20 6 10 2 2 14 71.43%
2 Norwich 71 49 20 11 7 38 52.63%
3 Cardiff 64 48 23 11 13 47 48.94%
4 Luton 43 44 17 10 10 37 45.95%
5 Middlesbrough 81 75 27 9 25 61 44.26%
6 West Brom 50 42 15 9 10 34 44.12%
7 Swansea 79 71 22 13 17 52 42.31%
8 Sheffield United 51 34 16 13 9 38 42.11%
9 Millwall 74 71 24 15 21 60 40.00%

As ever, the end of the Championship season promises to be of the highest drama. Watford may change their managers with an incredible amount of regularity but they do manage to sit on top of this table.

A win ratio of 71.43% has certainly helped the Hornets earn promotions back to the Premier League and if newly installed Chris Wilder can build on this, he may be able to secure at least a play-off berth at the end of this campaign.

While the same could be said for Norwich and their new manager David Wagner. The former Huddersfield boss has taken over a club that has a 52.63% win ratio at the back end of the season. They too are searching for one of four play-off places.

Next on the list is perhaps a more surprising name, as Cardiff has managed to snare third. More of a Championship mainstay these days but their decent end-of-season form has made sure that they still operate in the second tier.

The same can be said for Swansea, four places below in seventh. The other South Wales-based outfit has also flirted with the play-offs in recent years, but Russell Martin’s men are set for a midtable malaise this time.

Luton, Middlesbrough, and West Brom are between the two Welsh rivals. With just 1.8% separating this trio of clubs, the current battle for fifth in this table is just as cutthroat as the battle in real life. 

Sheffield United are currently keeping Middlesbrough at arm's length in the quest to keep hold of the other automatic promotion berth and they are eighth in this table. An improvement on their 42.11% win ratio would certainly aid their own ambition. 

As for the other team that is almost guaranteed a place in next season’s Premier League, Burnley has only played one game in our Championship sample and after Vincent Kompany’s men lost out, their current end-of-season ratio stands at 0%

Top of the table in real life and bottom of the table in this, the Clarets are propping up Reading, Bristol City and Sunderland who also find themselves in the bottom three when it comes to end-of-season win ratios. 

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