Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2024 Breeders Cup Mile Preview
The Breeders Cup Mile is run on the turf over a mile open to runners 3yo+ first run in 1984 there is a purse of $2m on offer and in 2018 Sir Michael Stoute ended the American run of 7 straight winners in the race. That was the first European success since Goldikova's third win in 2010 and was the first UK/IRE success since 1995 when John Oxx's Ridgewood Pearl won.
The other European success in the race was with Vincent O'Brien in 1990, Francois Boutin with back-to-back wins in 1987-88, John Gosden's success in 1984, Aidan O'Brien who had the 1-2-3 in 2020 and both 2021 and 2022, Charlie Appleby was successful with Space Blues & Modern Games.
Breeders Cup Mile Information:
- Breeders Cup Mile Past Winners
- Breeders Cup Mile Trainer Statistics
- Breeders Cup Mile Jockey Statistics
We also have a dedicated Del Mar tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Breeders Cup Schedule section for links to these.
How competitive is the Breeders Cup Mile market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2014 when the race had an over-round of 119%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 123%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Breeders Cup Mile, the over-round has been 121%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £121 which is bet.
Breeders Cup Mile Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Breeders Cup Mile next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 6 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -3.50. Before placing your bet on the 2024 Breeders Cup Mile see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2018 renewal when Expert Eye from Sir Michael Stoute under the guidance of Frankie Dettori, won in a time of 1:39.80, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Tourist, trained by William Mott and ridden by Joel Rosario set the quickest time of 1:31.71 in the 2016 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Breeders Cup Mile over the last 10 renewals:
- 2016 - Tourist (1:31.71)
- 2019 - Uni (1:32.45)
- 2023 - Master Of The Seas (1:32.45)
Breeders Cup Mile Challenge Series
Here are the races that are included in the Breeders Cup Challenge Series for the Breeders Cup Mile:
- Queens Plate (Kenilworth)
- Gran Premio Club Hipico Falabella (Santiago)
- Shoemaker Mile (Santa Anita)
- Yasuda Kinen (Tokyo)
- Queen Anne Stakes (Royal Ascot)
- Sussex Stakes (Goodwood)
- Fourstardave Handicap (Saratoga)
- Prix Jacques Le Marois (Deauville)
- Woodbine Mile (Woodbine)
- Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes (Keeneland)
- Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Ascot)
Breeders Cup Mile Past Winners
Here are the Breeders Cup Mile past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Breeders Cup Mile as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 1:32.45 | Master Of The Seas (IRE) 5yo 9-0 (13 of 13) 33/10F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2022 1:33.96 | Modern Games (IRE) 3yo 8-11 (4 of 14) 11/8F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2021 1:34.01 | Space Blues (IRE) 5yo 9-0 (2 of 13) 21/10F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2020 1:33.73 | Order Of Australia (IRE) 3yo 8-11 (14 of 14) 40/1 | Pierre-Charles Boudot A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2019 1:32.45 | Uni (GB) 5yo 8-11 (9 of 13) 9/2 | Joel Rosario Chad C Brown (USA) |
| 2018 1:39.80 | Expert Eye (GB) 3yo 8-11 (6 of 14) 9/2F | Frankie Dettori Sir Michael Stoute (GB) |
| 2017 1:34.55 | World Approval (USA) 5yo 9-0 (5 of 14) 11/4F | John R Velazquez Mark Casse (CAN) |
| 2016 1:31.71 | Tourist (USA) 5yo 9-0 (5 of 14) 33/1 | Joel Rosario William Mott (USA) |
| 2015 1:36.69 | Tepin (USA) 4yo 8-11 (7 of 12) 7/1 | Julien R Leparoux Mark Casse (CAN) |
| 2014 1:32.88 | Karakontie (JPN) 3yo 8-11 (14 of 14) 16/1 | Stephane Pasquier J E Pease (FR) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Breeders Cup Mile have been based:
- GB: 4 winners with an additional 4 placings from 25 runners
- USA: 2 winners with an additional 8 placings from 60 runners
- CAN: 2 winners with an additional 4 placings from 15 runners
- IRE: 1 winner with an additional 3 placings from 20 runners
- FR: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 11 runners
- JPN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
- GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Breeders Cup Mile Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Breeders Cup Mile over the last 10 renewals is Charlie Appleby who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Space Blues (2021), Modern Games (2022) and Master Of The Seas (2023). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Breeders Cup Mile is Mark Casse (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Breeders Cup Mile trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Appleby | 3-3-3 | +6.78 | +4.07 |
| Mark Casse | 8-2-4 | +3.75 | +1.53 |
| A P O'Brien | 15-1-4 | +26.00 | +14.90 |
| Chad C Brown | 12-1-3 | -6.50 | -5.50 |
| William Mott | 8-1-2 | +26.00 | +13.93 |
| J E Pease | 2-1-1 | +15.00 | +8.60 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 2-1-1 | +3.50 | +1.70 |
| Philip DAmato | 6-0-1 | -6.00 | -3.00 |
| Brian A Lynch | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -1.00 |
| Paulo H Lobo | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -1.01 |
Breeders Cup Mile Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Breeders Cup Mile over the last 10 renewals is William Buick who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Space Blues (2021), Modern Games (2022) and Master Of The Seas (2023). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Breeders Cup Mile is Joel Rosario (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Breeders Cup Mile jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Buick | 5-3-3 | +4.78 | +2.07 |
| Joel Rosario | 7-2-2 | +32.50 | +17.50 |
| John R Velazquez | 7-1-1 | -3.25 | -4.35 |
| Frankie Dettori | 6-1-3 | -0.50 | +0.84 |
| Julien R Leparoux | 4-1-2 | +4.00 | +2.05 |
| Pierre-Charles Boudot | 2-1-1 | +39.00 | +23.00 |
| Stephane Pasquier | 2-1-1 | +15.00 | +8.60 |
| Ryan Moore | 9-0-1 | -9.00 | -7.30 |
| Tyler Gaffalione | 6-0-1 | -6.00 | -5.17 |
| Luis Saez | 5-0-3 | -5.00 | +5.23 |
2024 Breeders Cup Mile Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 8, 5, 6, 1, 1, (2, 4), 7, 1, 1, (1, 5)
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 10 / 10 (59%) - No bigger than 53/10 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (59%) - No bigger than 18/5 (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (65%) - Not in a G2/LST/Cl2 (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (67%) - In a field of 9 - 15 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (70%) - No bigger than 183/10 (Career Place)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Break of 28 - 174 days (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - No bigger than 57/5 (Career Win)
- 10 / 10 (72%) - Carried 124 - 131lbs (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (72%) - Won within last 3 starts
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Made 7 - 17 starts (Non-Hcps)
- 10 / 10 (75%) - Had 1 - 3 wins (180 Days)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Made 4 - 7 starts (1 Year)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Not in a G2/Cl2 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Made 7 - 19 starts (Career)
- 10 / 10 (77%) - No bigger than 33/1 (Career)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Del Mar racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Breeders Cup Mile. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Breeders Cup Mile by adding a tip on the race here.
Breeders Cup Mile Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +63.53 is when runners had 2 places in the past 90 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 place in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-61.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2023: Winner in 13 (6,3) [13 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 4 (2,12) [14 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 2 (1,12) [13 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 14 (1,3) [14 Runners]
- 2019: Winner in 9 (5,8) [13 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Breeders Cup Mile is Keeneland, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Keeneland last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Longchamp, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Longchamp last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 8 winners from a total of 106 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 29 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Breeders Cup Mile:
- Dubawi (3 Wins)
- Bernstein (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Breeders Cup Mile despite multiple attempts:
- Galileo (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- War Front (0 Wins from 7 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Order Of Australia in 2020, winning for A P O'Brien at odds of 40/1 under the guidance of Pierre-Charles Boudot. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there have been 5 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Breeders Cup Mile remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Breeders Cup Schedule
Breeders Cup races for Friday 1st November 2024
| Race | 2023 Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint | Big Evs (IRE) 2yo - 16/5 | Michael Appleby Tom Marquand |
| Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies | Just F Y I (USA) 2yo - 7/1 | William Mott Junior Alvarado |
| Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf | Hard To Justify (USA) 2yo - 91/10 | Chad C Brown Flavien Prat |
| Breeders Cup Juvenile | Fierceness (USA) 2yo - 165/10 | Todd Pletcher John R Velazquez |
| Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf | Unquestionable (FR) 2yo - 6/4 | A P OBrien Ryan Moore |
Breeders Cup races for Saturday 2nd November 2024
| Race | 2023 Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Breeders Cup Dirt Mile | Codys Wish (USA) 5yo - 4/5 | William Mott Junior Alvarado |
| Breeders Cup Filly Mare Turf | Inspiral (GB) 4yo - 5/2 | John & Thady Gosden Frankie Dettori |
| Breeders Cup Filly Mare Sprint | Goodnight Olive (USA) 5yo - 11/10 | Chad C Brown Irad Ortiz Jr |
| Breeders Cup Mile | Master Of The Seas (IRE) 5yo - 33/10 | Charlie Appleby William Buick |
| Breeders Cup Distaff | Idiomatic (USA) 4yo - 9/5 | Brad H Cox Florent Geroux |
| Breeders Cup Turf | Auguste Rodin (IRE) 3yo - 5/2 | A P OBrien Ryan Moore |
| Breeders Cup Classic | White Abarrio (USA) 4yo - 13/5 | Richard Dutrow Jr Irad Ortiz Jr |
| Breeders Cup Turf Sprint | Nobals (USA) 4yo - 12/1 | Larry Rivelli Gerardo Corrales |
| Breeders Cup Sprint | Elite Power (USA) 5yo - 17/10 | William Mott Irad Ortiz Jr |
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