2023 Irish Grand National Preview, Trends & Analysis

The Irish Grand National, traditionally run on Easter Monday is always a competitive staying handicap chase for punters to unravel so we have taken a look at the Irish National trends over the past twenty renewals.

2023 Irish Grand National Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Irish Grand National Preview

The traditional Easter Monday showpiece at Fairyhouse Racecourse was first run in 1870 and is run over three miles and five furlongs for five-year-olds and upwards tackling twenty-four standard national hunt fences.

The Irish Grand National is a handicap chase carrying Grade A status, the role of honour includes an impressive list of equine legends like Arkle, Flyingbolt, Tied Cottage, Desert Orchid and Aintree Grand National winners Rhyme N'Reason, Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde.

Usually staged pretty close to the Aintree and Scottish equivalents depending on the Easter calendar, it is not surprising that no Irish Grand National winner has won the Aintree National in the same season but those three former greats listed above are amongst those to have done the double.

Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde both won the Irish version before winning at Aintree the following year so it's worth making a note of the Irish Grand National winner for future tips.

Irish Grand National Content:

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Fairyhouse Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Jonjo O'Neill trained Butlers Cabin ridden by A P McCoy who has set the fastest winning time in the Irish Grand National, the runner won the race in a time of 7:21.60 that was set when winning the race in 2007. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Gordon Elliott and jockey J J Slevin with General Principle who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 9:02.20 in the 2018 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Irish Grand National over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2007 - Butlers Cabin (7:21.60)
  • 2009 - Niche Market (7:31.70)
  • 2011 - Organisedconfusion (7:35.10)

How competitive is the Irish Grand National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2002 when the race had an over-round of 133%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 153%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Irish Grand National, the over-round has been 141%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £141 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Irish Grand National next time out then you would have back a total of 1 winner. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -16.00. Before placing your bet on the 2023 Irish Grand National see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

Irish Grand National Past Winners

Here are the Irish Grand National past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Irish Grand National as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2022
8:03.80
Lord Lariat (IRE)
7yo 9-12 40/1
P J O'Hanlon (7lbs)
Dermot A McLoughlin (IRE)
2021
7:48.10
Freewheelin Dylan (IRE)
9yo 10-8 150/1
Ricky Doyle
Dermot A McLoughlin (IRE)
2019
7:47.60
Burrows Saint (FR)
6yo 10-8 6/1F
R Walsh
W P Mullins (IRE)
2018
9:02.20
General Principle (IRE)
9yo 10-0 20/1
J J Slevin
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2017
7:47.20
Our Duke (IRE)
7yo 11-4 9/2F
Robbie Power
Mrs John Harrington (IRE)
2016
7:55.70
Rogue Angel (IRE)
8yo 10-6 16/1
Ger Fox (3lbs)
M F Morris (IRE)
2015
8:08.20
Thunder And Roses (IRE)
7yo 10-6 20/1
Ms K Walsh
Ms Sandra Hughes (IRE)
2014
7:40.20
Shutthefrontdoor (IRE)
7yo 10-13 8/1F
Barry Geraghty
Jonjo O'Neill (GB)
2013
8:00.40
Liberty Counsel (IRE)
10yo 9-5 50/1
Ben Dalton (5lbs)
Mrs D A Love (IRE)
2012
8:04.40
Lion Na Bearnai (IRE)
10yo 10-5 33/1
Andrew P Thornton (3lbs)
Thomas Gibney (IRE)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Irish Grand National have been based:

  • IRE: 16 winners with an additional 56 placings from 490 runners
  • GB: 3 winners with an additional 2 placings from 35 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 5 runners

Irish Grand National Trainer Statistics

There are multiple leading trainers in the Irish Grand National over the last 20 renewals with all of M F Morris, Jonjo O'Neill & Dermot A McLoughlin having all won the race 2 times. M F Morris winners have been with Hear The Echo I (2008) & Rogue Angel (2016). Jonjo O'Neill winners have been with Butlers Cabin (2007) & Shutthefrontdoor (2014). Dermot A McLoughlin winners have been with Freewheelin Dylan (2021) & Lord Lariat (2022). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Irish Grand National, A J Martin (0-22), Paul Nolan (0-16) & Michael Hourigan (0-14) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Irish Grand National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
M F Morris 14-2-6 +37.00 +35.01
Jonjo O'Neill 11-2-4 +13.00 +7.75
Dermot A McLoughlin 4-2-2 +188.00 +116.75
Gordon Elliott 55-1-6 -34.00 -27.37
W P Mullins 45-1-7 -38.00 -25.68
Noel Meade 34-1-2 -21.00 -23.50
A L T Moore 18-1-5 -5.00 -2.37
Mrs John Harrington 7-1-1 -1.50 -3.19
Thomas Gibney 4-1-1 +30.00 +17.63
Martin Brassil 4-1-1 +6.00 +2.63

Irish Grand National Jockey Statistics

There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Irish Grand National, Davy Russell (0-14), Mark Walsh (0-12), Denis O'Regan (0-11) & Paul Townend (0-11) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides to the race.

Here are some of the top Irish Grand National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Robbie Power 16-1-3 -10.50 -7.06
J J Slevin 5-1-2 +16.00 +12.13
Ricky Doyle 1-1-1 +150.00 +93.75
P J O'Hanlon 1-1-1 +40.00 +25.00
Harry Skelton 1-1-1 +33.00 +20.63
Davy Russell 14-0-1 -14.00 -11.50
Mark Walsh 12-0-0 -12.00 -12.00
Denis O'Regan 11-0-1 -11.00 -8.75
Paul Townend 11-0-2 -11.00 -9.31
B J Cooper 9-0-1 -9.00 -7.94

2023 Irish Grand National Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,PU,7,(PU,PU),8,7,6,(2,PU),4,UR,3,PU,PU,1,PU,PU,1,F,1,4,3

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (72%) - Either B or BB in colour
  • 20 / 20 (76%) - Carried 145-165lbs (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Between 8-31 career starts
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Debut on GS or worse
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Had won within last 9 runs
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Field of 7-24 (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - 2-15 career placings
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Not F or PU (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - 1-7 career wins
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - 3-11 starts in the past year
  • 20 / 20 (91%) - No older than 10yo
  • 19 / 20 (81%) - Not 1yr older vs race average
  • 19 / 20 (83%) - Carrying no more than 153lbs
  • 19 / 20 (83%) - 1-3 starts in past 90 days
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - Not 7lbs+ vs average weight
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - Last win was over 2m4f+
  • 19 / 20 (85%) - Had 1-4 wins over fences
  • 19 / 20 (85%) - 2-7 starts in the past 180 days
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Break of 11-88 days
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Debut not on flat or over fences
  • 18 / 20 (70%) - Fewer than 14 starts in chases
  • 18 / 20 (75%) - Not fallen this season
  • 18 / 20 (75%) - Field of 6-20 (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (88%) - Fewer than 8 places in handicaps
  • 17 / 20 (82%) - In a race open to 5yo+ (LTO)
  • 17 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 33/1

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Fairyhouse racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Irish Grand National. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Irish Grand National by adding a tip on the race here.

Irish Grand National Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +170.50 is when runners were Bay in colour. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners were Chestnut in colour, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-82.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Irish Grand National is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Leopardstown, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Leopardstown last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 18 winners from a total of 499 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 31 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Irish Grand National, that stallion is Presenting who has produced 3 winners (2016,2015,2009).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Irish Grand National despite multiple attempts:

  • Old Vic (0 Wins from 19 runners)
  • Flemensfirth (0 Wins from 15 runners)
  • Beneficial (0 Wins from 12 runners)
  • Saddlers Hall (0 Wins from 10 runners)
  • Bob Back (0 Wins from 9 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Freewheelin Dylan in 2021 when winning for Dermot A McLoughlin at odds of 150/1 under the guidance of Ricky Doyle. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 3 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2023 Irish Grand National why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today.

Other Principal races at Fairyhouse racecourse

Here are some other notable races at the Fairyhouse racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races at the Winter Festival

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