Royal Bond Novice Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis (The Winter Festival)

We look at the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 2m at Fairyhouse during The Winter Festival to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle.

Royal Bond Novice Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis (The Winter Festival)

2023 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle Preview

The Royal Bond Novice Hurdle is one of three Grade 1 races run on the Sunday of the Fairyhouse Winter Festival which takes place either last November or early December. This race, open to runners aged four or older is run over a distance of two miles where these novice hurdlers will have a total of ten hurdles. The race is named in honour of the Arthur Moore trained Royal Bond who had a successful jumps career in the 1980s.

Royal Bond Novice Hurdle Content:

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Fairyhouse Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Thomas Gerard O'Leary trained Newmill ridden by G Cotter who set the fastest winning time in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, the runner won the race in a time of 3:51.70 was set when winning the race in 2003. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer W P Mullins and jockey Paul Townend with Hurricane Fly who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 4:19.00 in the 2008 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Royal Bond Novice Hurdle over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2003 - Newmill (3:51.70)
  • 2016 - Airlie Beach (3:53.10)
  • 2013 - The Tullow Tank (3:53.60)

How competitive is the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2018 when the race had an over-round of 112%. The race in 2003 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 132%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, the over-round has been 118%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £118 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle next time out then you would have backed a total of 7 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -2.07. Before placing your bet on the 2023 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.

Royal Bond Novice Hurdle Past Winners

Here are the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2022
4:09.80
Marine Nationale (IRE)
5yo 11-12 11/2
Michael O'Sullivan
Barry Connell (IRE)
2021
3:56.50
Statuaire (FR)
6yo 11-5 12/1
Danny Mullins
W P Mullins (IRE)
2020
4:12.30
Ballyadam (IRE)
5yo 11-12 8/15F
Jack Kennedy
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2019
4:01.40
Envoi Allen (FR)
5yo 11-10 8/11F
Davy Russell
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2018
3:56.70
Quick Grabim (IRE)
6yo 11-10 1/1F
R Walsh
W P Mullins (IRE)
2017
4:00.50
Mengli Khan (IRE)
4yo 11-7 1/1F
Jack Kennedy
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2016
3:53.10
Airlie Beach (IRE)
6yo 11-3 4/1
Danny Mullins
W P Mullins (IRE)
2015
4:03.60
Long Dog (GB)
5yo 11-10 1/2F
R Walsh
W P Mullins (IRE)
2014
3:57.30
Nichols Canyon (GB)
4yo 11-7 7/2
Paul Townend
W P Mullins (IRE)
2013
3:53.60
The Tullow Tank (IRE)
5yo 11-10 5/1
Danny Mullins
Philip Fenton (IRE)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle have been based:

  • IRE: 20 winners with an additional 28 placings from 150 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Royal Bond Novice Hurdle Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 8 times. Those 8 winners came from Hurricane Fly (2008), Zaidpour (2010), Sous Les Cieux (2011), Nichols Canyon (2014), Long Dog (2015), Airlie Beach (2016), Quick Grabim (2018) & Statuaire (2021). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle are Noel Meade (3 wins), Gordon Elliott (3 wins), Mrs John Harrington (2 wins) & Philip Fenton (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Royal Bond Novice Hurdle trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
W P Mullins 38-8-15 -4.93 -5.06
Noel Meade 18-3-7 +2.00 +4.20
Gordon Elliott 12-3-5 -6.74 -3.45
Mrs John Harrington 7-2-4 +7.25 +4.01
Philip Fenton 3-2-3 +4.30 +4.44
Barry Connell 1-1-1 +5.50 +3.30
Joseph Patrick O'Brien 7-0-1 -7.00 -4.62
E J O'Grady 4-0-2 -4.00 -2.85
D K Weld 4-0-1 -4.00 -3.13
Henry De Bromhead 4-0-0 -4.00 -4.00

Royal Bond Novice Hurdle Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle over the last twenty renewals with both Paul Townend & Danny Mullins who have both won the race 3 times. Paul Townend winners have been with Hurricane Fly (2008), Zaidpour (2010) & Nichols Canyon (2014). Danny Mullins winners have been with The Tullow Tank (2013), Airlie Beach (2016) & Statuaire (2021). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle is Jack Kennedy (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Royal Bond Novice Hurdle jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Paul Townend 13-3-6 -3.93 -1.13
Danny Mullins 4-3-3 +20.00 +12.00
Jack Kennedy 4-2-4 -0.47 +2.11
Davy Russell 14-1-3 -12.27 -9.31
Michael O'Sullivan 1-1-1 +5.50 +3.30
B J Cooper 7-0-1 -7.00 -3.00
Mark Walsh 6-0-1 -6.00 -3.62
Robbie Power 4-0-0 -4.00 -4.00
Sean Flanagan 3-0-1 -3.00 -1.50
Keith Donoghue 3-0-0 -3.00 -3.00

2023 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 3, 6, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, PU, 1, F, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (62%) - No bigger than 12/1
  • 20 / 20 (68%) - Within the first 5 of market
  • 20 / 20 (70%) - Achieved an RPR of 125+ (Season)
  • 20 / 20 (76%) - Off a break of 18-165 days
  • 20 / 20 (77%) - Break of 18 - 165 days (Last Place)
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - No bigger than 4/1 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Highest Won is not G2/LST/Cl2/Cl5
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Beaten no more 4½l (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Not in a G1-2/LST/Cl2/Cl5 (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Made 1-5 starts (Hurdles)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 4/1 (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Won within last 2 starts
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved an RPR of 112+ (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Made 1-7 starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 1-5 starts (180 Days)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 2-13 starts (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Beaten no more 16½l (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Not BB/GR in colour

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Fairyhouse racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles like the How to Find Winners - 101 Tips to Choose A Winning Horse Racing Bet.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle by adding a tip on the race here.

Royal Bond Novice Hurdle Trend Analysis

The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 3 places in the past 180 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-22.

The courses which have produced the most winners of the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle are Navan and Down Royal, there has been a total number of 4 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 18 winners from a total of 133 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 18 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle:

  • Muhtathir (2 Wins)
  • Oscar (2 Wins)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Statuaire in 2021, winning for W P Mullins at odds of 12/1 under the guidance of Danny Mullins. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 9 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2023 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?

Other Principal races at Fairyhouse racecourse

Here are some other notable races at the Fairyhouse racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races in April

Races at the Winter Festival

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