2022 Melbourne Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis

2022 Melbourne Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis

2022 Melbourne Cup Preview

The Melbourne Cup is open to three-year-old runners or older it is run over two miles at Flemington racecourse, a left-handed track on the turf. The race is known as 'the race that stops a nation' and is the most valuable two-mile handicap in the world. The race is part of the Melbourne Spring Carnival. The race was first run back in 1861 and in 2018 had a purse of $8m! Winners of the Doncaster Cup and Irish St Leger are eligible for guaranteed entry in the race.

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Flemington Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the D K Weld trained Media Puzzle ridden by Damien Oliver who has set the fastest winning time in the Melbourne Cup, the runner won the race in a time of 3:16.97 that was set when winning the race in 2002. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Lee Freedman and jockey Glen Boss with Makybe Diva who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 3:28.55 in the 2004 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2002 - Media Puzzle (3:16.97)
  • 2020 - Twilight Payment (3:17.34)
  • 2021 - Verry Elleegant (3:17.43)

How competitive is the Melbourne Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009 when the race had an over-round of 110%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 121%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Melbourne Cup, the over-round has been 117% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Melbourne Cup next time out then you would have back a total of 3 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -6.50. Before placing your bet on the 2022 Melbourne Cup see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

Melbourne Cup Past Winners

Here are the Melbourne Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Melbourne Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2021
3:17.43
Verry Elleegant (NZ)
6yo 9-0 (18 of 23) 17/1
James McDonald
Chris Waller (AUS)
2020
3:17.34
Twilight Payment (IRE)
7yo 8-10 (12 of 23) 25/1
Jye McNeil
Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE)
2019
3:24.76
Vow And Declare (AUS)
4yo 8-3 (21 of 24) 10/1
Craig A Williams
Danny O'Brien (AUS)
2018
3:21.17
Cross Counter (GB)
3yo 8-0 (19 of 24) 8/1
Kerrin McEvoy
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2017
3:21.19
Rekindling (GB)
3yo 8-2 (4 of 23) 14/1
Corey Brown
Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE)
2016
3:20.58
Almandin (GER)
6yo 8-3 (17 of 24) 10/1
Kerrin McEvoy
Robert Hickmott (AUS)
2015
3:23.15
Prince Of Penzance (NZ)
6yo 8-5 (1 of 24) 100/1
Michelle Payne
Darren Weir (AUS)
2014
3:17.71
Protectionist (GER)
4yo 8-13 (10 of 22) 7/1
Ryan Moore
A Wohler (GER)
2013
3:20.30
Fiorente (IRE)
5yo 8-9 (5 of 24) 6/1F
Damien Oliver
Gai Waterhouse (AUS)
2012
3:20.45
Green Moon (IRE)
5yo 8-6 (5 of 24) 19/1
Brett Prebble
Robert Hickmott (AUS)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Melbourne Cup have been based:

  • AUS: 9 winners with an additional 27 placings from 266 runners
  • IRE: 3 winners with an additional 11 placings from 45 runners
  • SIN: 2 winners with an additional 0 placings from 10 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 9 runners
  • GB: 1 winner with an additional 16 placings from 80 runners
  • HK: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 15 runners
  • JPN: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 10 runners
  • GER: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
  • NZ: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 24 runners
  • SAF: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners

Melbourne Cup Trainer Statistics

There are multiple leading trainers in the Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals with all of Robert Hickmott, Joseph Patrick O'Brien & Lee Freedman having all won the race 2 times. Robert Hickmott winners have been with Green Moon (2012) & Almandin (2016). Joseph Patrick O'Brien winners have been with Rekindling (2017) & Twilight Payment (2020). Lee Freedman winners have been with Makybe Diva (2004) & Makybe Diva (2005). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Melbourne Cup, Saeed bin Suroor (0-19), A P O'Brien (0-17), Luca Cumani (0-11) & Michael Moroney (0-11) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Melbourne Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Robert Hickmott 20-2-3 +11.00 +2.51
Joseph Patrick O'Brien 9-2-3 +32.00 +21.01
Lee Freedman 4-2-2 +4.00 +1.76
Chris Waller 26-1-4 -8.00 -4.99
Bart Cummings 17-1-2 +24.00 +9.75
Danny O'Brien 15-1-3 -4.00 -2.24
Gai Waterhouse 12-1-2 -5.00 -3.00
Darren Weir 9-1-4 +92.00 +64.38
D K Weld 8-1-3 -1.50 -1.37
Graeme Rogerson 6-1-3 +11.00 +7.94

Melbourne Cup Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals is Glen Boss who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Makybe Diva (2003), Makybe Diva (2004) & Makybe Diva (2005). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Melbourne Cup are Damien Oliver (2 wins), Kerrin McEvoy (2 wins) & Corey Brown (2 wins). There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Melbourne Cup, Dwayne Dunn (0-12), Craig Newitt (0-11), Hugh Bowman (0-10), Frankie Dettori (0-10) & Luke Nolen (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides to the race.

Here are some of the top Melbourne Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Glen Boss 13-3-6 +3.00 +5.52
Damien Oliver 18-2-4 -4.50 -6.62
Kerrin McEvoy 17-2-6 +3.00 +4.25
Corey Brown 12-2-5 +13.00 +14.88
Craig A Williams 16-1-3 -5.00 -5.12
Michael Rodd 11-1-2 +6.00 +4.25
Brett Prebble 10-1-3 +10.00 +6.62
Blake Shinn 9-1-1 +32.00 +17.00
James McDonald 9-1-3 +9.00 +7.38
Ryan Moore 7-1-1 +1.00 -1.62

2022 Melbourne Cup Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,4,23,1,1,(2,19),8,7,6,3,4,14,1,22,13,3,(9,12),11,7,13,2

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

  • 20 / 20 (78%) - Never won off 18/1 or bigger
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Beaten no more than 7l LTO
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Previously won a Group race
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Never gone further than 2m
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Has never run over more than 2m
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Not carrying 119 lbs
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - Had placed in at least a G2
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - Aged between 3yo-6yo
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Carried less than 131lbs (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (87%) - Ran within last 52 days
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Ran in either Australia or England LTO
  • 18 / 20 (83%) - Ran in a field of 9 or more LTO
  • 18 / 20 (84%) - Ran over 1m2f - 1m4½f (LTO)
  • 17 / 20 (31%) - No bigger than 20/1
  • 17 / 20 (44%) - First nine of betting market
  • 17 / 20 (54%) - Finished in first 4 (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Flemington racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Melbourne Cup. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Melbourne Cup by adding a tip on the race here.

Melbourne Cup Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +82.00 is when runners had 1 place in the past 30 days. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners were priced at 30/1, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-54.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 18 (15,14,10) [23 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 12 (22,1,5) [23 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 21 (8,17,1) [24 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 19 (10,20,15) [24 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 4 (3,2,5) [23 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Melbourne Cup is Moonee Valley, there has been a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Moonee Valley last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Caulfield, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Caulfield last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 16 winners from a total of 406 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 4 winners from a total of 58 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Melbourne Cup:

  • Desert King (3 Wins)
  • Monsun (3 Wins)
  • Teofilo (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Melbourne Cup despite multiple attempts:

  • Galileo (0 Wins from 30 runners)
  • Danehill (0 Wins from 10 runners)
  • Cadeaux Genereux (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Encosta De Lago (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Frankel (0 Wins from 8 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Prince Of Penzance in 2015 when winning for Darren Weir at odds of 100/1 under the guidance of Michelle Payne. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 3 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2022 Melbourne Cup. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

Other Principal races at Flemington racecourse

Here are some other notable races at Flemington racecourse for throughout the racing season which you may be interested in.

Races in October

Races in November

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