Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Melbourne Cup Preview
The Melbourne Cup is open to three-year-old runners or older it is run over two miles at Flemington Racecourse, a left-handed track on the turf. The race is known as 'the race that stops a nation' and is the most valuable two-mile handicap in the world.
The race is part of the Melbourne Spring Carnival. The race was first run back in 1861 and in 2018 had a purse of $8m! Winners of the Doncaster Cup and Irish St Leger are eligible for guaranteed entry in the race.
Melbourne Cup Information:
We also have a dedicated Flemington tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival section for links to these.
How competitive is the Melbourne Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009 when the race had an over-round of 110%. The race in 2005 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 121%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Melbourne Cup, the over-round has been 117%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.
Melbourne Cup Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Melbourne Cup next time out then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -6.50. Ahead of the 2025 Melbourne Cup why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 3:17.34 was set by Twilight Payment in 2020, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien and ridden by Jye McNeil. The slowest winning time was set in 2010 when Americain won in a time of 3:26.87, booked to ride was Gerald Mosse by the trainer A De Royer-Dupre.
These are the top three quickest-run Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals:
- Twilight Payment (3:17.34) in 2020
- Verry Elleegant (3:17.43) in 2021
- Protectionist (3:17.71) in 2014
Melbourne Cup Past Winners
Here are the Melbourne Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Melbourne Cup are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 3:19.53 | Knights Choice (AUS) 5yo 8-2 (5 of 23) 90/1 | Robbie Dolan John Symons & Sheila Laxon (AUS) |
| 2023 3:18.37 | Without A Fight (IRE) 6yo 8-13 (16 of 23) 7/1 | Mark Zahra Anthony & Sam Freedman (AUS) |
| 2022 3:24.04 | Gold Trip (FR) 5yo 9-1 (13 of 22) 20/1 | Mark Zahra Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (AUS) |
| 2021 3:17.43 | Verry Elleegant (NZ) 6yo 9-0 (18 of 23) 17/1 | James McDonald Chris Waller (AUS) |
| 2020 3:17.34 | Twilight Payment (IRE) 7yo 8-10 (12 of 23) 25/1 | Jye McNeil Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2019 3:24.76 | Vow And Declare (AUS) 4yo 8-3 (21 of 24) 10/1 | Craig A Williams Danny O'Brien (AUS) |
| 2018 3:21.17 | Cross Counter (GB) 3yo 8-0 (19 of 24) 8/1 | Kerrin McEvoy Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2017 3:21.19 | Rekindling (GB) 3yo 8-2 (4 of 23) 14/1 | Corey Brown Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2016 3:20.58 | Almandin (GER) 6yo 8-3 (17 of 24) 10/1 | Kerrin McEvoy Robert Hickmott (AUS) |
| 2015 3:23.15 | Prince Of Penzance (NZ) 6yo 8-5 (1 of 24) 100/1 | Michelle Payne Darren Weir (AUS) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Melbourne Cup have been based:
- AUS: 12 winners with an additional 30 placings from 282 runners
- IRE: 2 winners with an additional 9 placings from 45 runners
- FR: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 9 runners
- GB: 1 winner with an additional 15 placings from 72 runners
- JPN: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 12 runners
- SIN: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- GER: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
- NZ: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 23 runners
- HK: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 10 runners
- SAF: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners
Melbourne Cup Trainer Statistics
There are two leading trainers in the Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals with both Robert Hickmott and Joseph Patrick O'Brien who have both won the race two times. Robert Hickmott's winners have been with Green Moon (2012) and Almandin (2016). Joseph Patrick O'Brien winners have been with Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020). Multiple trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Melbourne Cup, A P O'Brien (0-17), Saeed bin Suroor (0-12), Michael Moroney (0-12), W P Mullins (0-11), Luca Cumani (0-11) and Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.
Here are some of the top Melbourne Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Hickmott | 21-2-3 | +10.00 | +1.51 |
| Joseph Patrick O'Brien | 10-2-3 | +31.00 | +20.01 |
| Chris Waller | 35-1-6 | -17.00 | +6.82 |
| Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | 18-1-4 | +3.00 | +6.38 |
| Danny O'Brien | 18-1-3 | -7.00 | -5.24 |
| Bart Cummings | 14-1-2 | +27.00 | +12.75 |
| Gai Waterhouse | 11-1-2 | -4.00 | -2.00 |
| Darren Weir | 7-1-3 | +94.00 | +60.88 |
| Anthony & Sam Freedman | 5-1-1 | +3.00 | +0.38 |
| Graeme Rogerson | 4-1-3 | +13.00 | +9.94 |
Melbourne Cup Jockey Statistics
There are multiple leading jockeys in the Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals with Kerrin McEvoy, Corey Brown and Mark Zahra having all won the race two times. Kerrin McEvoy winners have been with Almandin (2016) and Cross Counter (2018). Corey Brown's winners have been with Shocking (2009) and Rekindling (2017). Mark Zahra's winners have been with Gold Trip (2022) and Without A Fight (2023). Multiple jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Melbourne Cup, Craig Newitt (0-12), Dwayne Dunn (0-12) and Hugh Bowman (0-11) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple rides to the race.
Here are some of the top Melbourne Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerrin McEvoy | 17-2-7 | +3.00 | +7.30 |
| Corey Brown | 9-2-4 | +16.00 | +12.38 |
| Mark Zahra | 7-2-2 | +22.00 | +11.88 |
| Craig A Williams | 18-1-3 | -7.00 | -7.12 |
| Damien Oliver | 16-1-3 | -9.00 | -9.06 |
| James McDonald | 10-1-3 | +8.00 | +6.38 |
| Glen Boss | 10-1-4 | -5.60 | +0.51 |
| Blake Shinn | 9-1-1 | +32.00 | +17.00 |
| Michael Rodd | 9-1-2 | +8.00 | +6.25 |
| Brett Prebble | 8-1-3 | +12.00 | +8.62 |
2025 Melbourne Cup Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, (2, 19), 8, 7, 6, 3, 4, 14, 1, 22, 13, 3, (9, 12), 11, 7, 13, 2, 4, 14, 9
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 20 / 20 (73%) - Achieved an RPR of 104+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Not in a LST/Cl2-5 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Beaten no more -7l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Won by at least a head (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Furthest ran 1m4f - 2m
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Highest Won is not LST/Cl2/Cl4-5
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Carried 118 - 139lbs (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Highest Placed is not G3/LST/Cl2
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Ran in 4 - 11 races (1 Year)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Not in CAN/DEU/HKG/ITA/NZL/SCO/UAE/USA (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Fewer than 12 races (Hcps)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Furthest Placed 1m4f - 2m
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Achieved an RPR of 99+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - In a field of 8 - 18 (LTO)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Flemington racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Melbourne Cup. If you are looking to place a bet on this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Melbourne Cup by adding a tip on the race here.
Melbourne Cup Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +135.50 is when runners had 0 career starts over the trip.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-53.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 5 (2,9,3) [23 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 16 (4,22,11) [23 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 13 (3,8,9) [22 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 18 (15,14,10) [23 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 12 (22,1,5) [23 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Melbourne Cup is Moonee Valley, there has been a total number of 7 winners of this race who ran at Moonee Valley last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Caulfield, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Caulfield last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 18 winners from a total of 407 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 55 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Melbourne Cup:
- Monsun (3 Wins)
- Teofilo (3 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Melbourne Cup despite multiple attempts:
- Galileo (0 Wins from 39 runners)
- Frankel (0 Wins from 9 runners)
- Authorized (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Danehill (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Dansili (0 Wins from 7 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Prince Of Penzance in 2015, winning for Darren Weir at odds of 100/1 under the guidance of Michelle Payne. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 2 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2025 Melbourne Cup why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today? All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Melbourne Cup Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
Darren Brett
Tipster Competition Manager
Andy Powell
Content Editor
Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival
Here are the other races that take place at the Flemington Racetrack during the Melbourne Cup Carnival that we also cover with blogs.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Coolmore Stud Stakes Victoria Derby Day | Switzerland (AUS) 3yo - 9/2 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
| Empire Rose Stakes Victoria Derby Day | Atishu (NZ) 7yo - 13/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
| Victoria Derby Victoria Derby Day | Goldrush Guru (AUS) 3yo - 7/1 | Andrew Gluyas Jamie Kah |
| Melbourne Cup Melbourne Cup Day | Knights Choice (AUS) 5yo - 90/1 | John Symons & Sheila Laxon Robbie Dolan |
| Crown Oaks Kennedy Oaks Day | Treasurethe Moment (AUS) 3yo - 21/10 | Matt Laurie Damian Lane |
| VRC Champions Mile Champions Stakes Day | Mr Brightside (NZ) 7yo - 4/1 | Ben, Will & JD Hayes Craig A Williams |
| VRC Champions Sprint Champions Stakes Day | Sunshine In Paris (AUS) 5yo - 4/1 | Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald James McDonald |
| VRC Champions Stakes Champions Stakes Day | Via Sistina (IRE) 6yo - 3/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
