You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2025 Melbourne Cup Preview
The Melbourne Cup is open to three-year-old runners or older. It is run over two miles at Flemington Racecourse, a left-handed track on the turf. The race is known as 'the race that stops a nation' and is the most valuable two-mile handicap in the world.
The race is part of the Melbourne Spring Carnival. The race was first run back in 1861, and in 2025 has a purse of $10 million! Winners of the Doncaster Cup and Irish St Leger are eligible for guaranteed entry in the race.
Melbourne Cup Information:
If you are interested in other predictions at Flemington, then head over to the Flemington tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Melbourne Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009 when the race had an over-round of 110%. The race in 2005 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 121%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Melbourne Cup, the over-round has been 117%, which means the bookie expects to pay out ÂŁ100 for every ÂŁ117 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 Melbourne Cup Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Melbourne Cup Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Melbourne Cup races over the last 20 renewals:
- Twilight Payment (3:17.34) in 2020
- Verry Elleegant (3:17.43) in 2021
- Protectionist (3:17.71) in 2014
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Melbourne Cup next time out, then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -7.50. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Melbourne Cup, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Twilight Payment, trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien and ridden by Jye McNeil, who set the fastest winning time in the Melbourne Cup. That runner won the race in a time of 3:17.34 in 2020. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer A De Royer-Dupre and jockey Gerald Mosse with Americain who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 3:26.87 in the 2010 renewal.
Melbourne Cup Past Winners
Here are the Melbourne Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Melbourne Cup are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 3:19.53 | Knights Choice (AUS) 5yo 8-2 (5 of 23) 90/1 | Robbie Dolan John Symons & Sheila Laxon (AUS) |
| 2023 3:18.37 | Without A Fight (IRE) 6yo 8-13 (16 of 23) 7/1 | Mark Zahra Anthony & Sam Freedman (AUS) |
| 2022 3:24.04 | Gold Trip (FR) 5yo 9-1 (13 of 22) 20/1 | Mark Zahra Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (AUS) |
| 2021 3:17.43 | Verry Elleegant (NZ) 6yo 9-0 (18 of 23) 17/1 | James McDonald Chris Waller (AUS) |
| 2020 3:17.34 | Twilight Payment (IRE) 7yo 8-10 (12 of 23) 25/1 | Jye McNeil Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2019 3:24.76 | Vow And Declare (AUS) 4yo 8-3 (21 of 24) 10/1 | Craig A Williams Danny O'Brien (AUS) |
| 2018 3:21.17 | Cross Counter (GB) 3yo 8-0 (19 of 24) 8/1 | Kerrin McEvoy Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2017 3:21.19 | Rekindling (GB) 3yo 8-2 (4 of 23) 14/1 | Corey Brown Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2016 3:20.58 | Almandin (GER) 6yo 8-3 (17 of 24) 10/1 | Kerrin McEvoy Robert Hickmott (AUS) |
| 2015 3:23.15 | Prince Of Penzance (NZ) 6yo 8-5 (1 of 24) 100/1 | Michelle Payne Darren Weir (AUS) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Melbourne Cup have been based:
- AUS: 12 winners with an additional 30 placings from 282 runners
- IRE: 2 winners with an additional 9 placings from 45 runners
- FR: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 9 runners
- GB: 1 winner with an additional 15 placings from 72 runners
- JPN: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 12 runners
- SIN: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- GER: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
- NZ: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 23 runners
- HK: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 10 runners
- SAF: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners
2024 Melbourne Cup Replay
Melbourne Cup Trainer Statistics
There are two leading trainers in the Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals, with both Robert Hickmott and Joseph Patrick O'Brien, who have both won the race two times. Robert Hickmott winners have been with Green Moon (2012) and Almandin (2016). Joseph Patrick O'Brien winners have been with Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020). Multiple trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Melbourne Cup. A P O'Brien (0-17), Saeed bin Suroor (0-12), Michael Moroney (0-12), Luca Cumani (0-11), W P Mullins (0-11) and Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.
Here are some of the top Melbourne Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Hickmott | 21-2-3 | +10.00 | +1.51 |
| Joseph Patrick O'Brien | 10-2-3 | +31.00 | +20.01 |
| Chris Waller | 35-1-6 | -17.00 | +6.82 |
| Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | 18-1-4 | +3.00 | +6.38 |
| Danny O'Brien | 18-1-3 | -7.00 | -5.24 |
| Bart Cummings | 14-1-2 | +27.00 | +12.75 |
| Gai Waterhouse | 11-1-2 | -4.00 | -2.00 |
| Darren Weir | 7-1-3 | +94.00 | +60.88 |
| Anthony & Sam Freedman | 5-1-1 | +3.00 | +0.38 |
| Graeme Rogerson | 4-1-3 | +13.00 | +9.94 |
Melbourne Cup Jockey Statistics
There are multiple leading jockeys in the Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals, with Kerrin McEvoy, Corey Brown, and Mark Zahra having all won the race two times. Kerrin McEvoy's winners have been with Almandin (2016) and Cross Counter (2018). Corey Brown winners have been with Shocking (2009) and Rekindling (2017). Mark Zahra's winners have been with Gold Trip (2022) and Without A Fight (2023). Multiple jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Melbourne Cup; Dwayne Dunn (0-12), Craig Newitt (0-12) and Hugh Bowman (0-11) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides in the race.
Here are some of the top Melbourne Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerrin McEvoy | 17-2-7 | +3.00 | +7.30 |
| Corey Brown | 9-2-4 | +16.00 | +12.38 |
| Mark Zahra | 7-2-2 | +22.00 | +11.88 |
| Craig A Williams | 18-1-3 | -7.00 | -7.12 |
| Damien Oliver | 16-1-3 | -9.00 | -9.06 |
| James McDonald | 10-1-3 | +8.00 | +6.38 |
| Glen Boss | 10-1-4 | -5.60 | +0.51 |
| Blake Shinn | 9-1-1 | +32.00 | +17.00 |
| Michael Rodd | 9-1-2 | +8.00 | +6.25 |
| Brett Prebble | 8-1-3 | +12.00 | +8.62 |
2025 Melbourne Cup Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, (2, 19), 8, 7, 6, 3, 4, 14, 1, 22, 13, 3, (9, 12), 11, 7, 13, 2, 4, 14, 9
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 20 / 20 (73%) - Achieved an RPR of 104+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Not in a LST/Cl2-5 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Beaten no more -7l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Won by at least a head (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Furthest ran 1m4f - 2m
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Highest Won is not LST/Cl2/Cl4-5
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Carried 118 - 139lbs (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Highest Placed is not G3/LST/Cl2
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Ran in 4 - 11 races (1 Year)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Not in CAN/DEU/HKG/ITA/NZL/SCO/UAE/USA (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Fewer than 12 races (Hcps)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Furthest Placed 1m4f - 2m
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Achieved an RPR of 99+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - In a field of 8 - 18 (LTO)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Flemington racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Melbourne Cup. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over ÂŁ6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Melbourne Cup by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Melbourne Cup Trend Analysis
â The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +135.50, is when runners had 0 career starts over the trip.
â The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 2 career starts over the trip, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-53.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 5 (2,9,3) [23 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 16 (4,22,11) [23 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 13 (3,8,9) [22 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 18 (15,14,10) [23 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 12 (22,1,5) [23 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Melbourne Cup is Moonee Valley; there have been a total of 7 winners of this race who ran at Moonee Valley last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Caulfield; there have been a total of 4 winners of this race who ran at Caulfield last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with the Male runners having produced a total of 18 winners from a total of 407 runners, whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 55 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Melbourne Cup:
- Monsun (3 Wins)
- Teofilo (3 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Melbourne Cup despite multiple attempts:
- Galileo (0 Wins from 39 runners)
- Frankel (0 Wins from 9 runners)
- Authorized (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Danehill (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Dansili (0 Wins from 7 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Prince Of Penzance in 2015, winning for Darren Weir at odds of 100/1 under the guidance of Michelle Payne. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 2 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Melbourne Cup, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Route to the Melbourne Cup
Many trainers will target races to use as prep races before coming to the Melbourne Cup. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2024 - Knights Choice Bendigo - 5th of 15 (25/1) | Apiam Bendigo Cup |
| 2023 - Without A Fight Caulfield - 1st of 18 (15/2) | Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup |
| 2022 - Gold Trip Moonee Valley - 9th of 12 (12/1) | Ladbrokes Cox Plate |
| 2021 - Verry Elleegant Moonee Valley - 3rd of 8 (13/5) | Ladbrokes Cox Plate |
| 2020 - Twilight Payment Curragh - 3rd of 8 (9/2) | Irish St Leger |
| 2019 - Vow And Declare Caulfield - 2nd of 18 (7/1) | Stella Artois Caulfield Cup |
| 2018 - Cross Counter York - 2nd of 9 (6/4) | Great Voltigeur Stakes |
| 2017 - Rekindling Doncaster - 4th of 11 (10/1) | St Leger |
| 2016 - Almandin Flemington - 1st of 11 (2/1) | The Bart Cummings |
| 2015 - Prince Of Penzance Moonee Valley - 2nd of 10 (5/1) | Melbourne Signage Concepts Moonee Valley Gold Cup |
Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival
Here are the other races that take place at the Flemington Racetrack during the Melbourne Cup Carnival that we also cover with blogs.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Coolmore Stud Stakes | Switzerland (AUS) 3yo - 9/2 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
| Empire Rose Stakes | Atishu (NZ) 7yo - 13/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
| Victoria Derby | Goldrush Guru (AUS) 3yo - 7/1 | Andrew Gluyas Jamie Kah |
| Melbourne Cup | Knights Choice (AUS) 5yo - 90/1 | John Symons & Sheila Laxon Robbie Dolan |
| Crown Oaks | Treasurethe Moment (AUS) 3yo - 21/10 | Matt Laurie Damian Lane |
| VRC Champions Mile | Mr Brightside (NZ) 7yo - 4/1 | Ben, Will & JD Hayes Craig A Williams |
| VRC Champions Sprint | Sunshine In Paris (AUS) 5yo - 4/1 | Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald James McDonald |
| VRC Champions Stakes | Via Sistina (IRE) 6yo - 3/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Melbourne Cup Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team, looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
