You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2025 Victoria Derby Preview
Established in 1855 and scheduled to take place in late October or early November of each year at the Flemington racecourse is the Victoria Derby, a Group 1 race that is the feature race on the opening day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival.
It features on the Saturday before Tuesday's Melbourne Cup with this race, like its equivalents in the UK, is open to runners aged three years old and is run over a distance of 2,500m.
For sponsorship purposes, the 2025 renewal of the Victoria Derby will hold the title of 'Howden Victoria Derby'.
Victoria Derby Information:
We also have a dedicated Flemington tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race. See which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Victoria Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2017 when the race had an over-round of 112%. The race in 2024 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 119%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Victoria Derby, the over-round has been 117%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 Victoria Derby Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Victoria Derby Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the Victoria Derby Trend Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run Victoria Derby races over the last 10 renewals:
- Extra Brut (2:34.31) in 2018
- Prized Icon (2:36.16) in 2016
- Hitotsu (2:37.32) in 2021
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Victoria Derby next time out, then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 10 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of +5.00. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2025 Victoria Derby.
When looking over the past 10 renewals, a time of 2:34.31 was set by Extra Brut in 2018, trained by Darren Weir and ridden by John Allen, which is the quickest time over that period. The slowest winning time was set in 2020 when Johnny Get Angry won in a time of 2:41.91 for trainer Denis Pagan, who booked Lachlan King in the saddle.
Victoria Derby Past Winners
Here are the Victoria Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Victoria Derby are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 2:37.78 | Goldrush Guru (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 16) 7/1 | Jamie Kah Andrew Gluyas (AUS) |
| 2023 2:37.38 | Riff Rocket (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 16) 6/5F | James McDonald Chris Waller (AUS) |
| 2022 2:40.86 | Manzoice (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 16) 20/1 | Michael Dee Chris Waller (AUS) |
| 2021 2:37.32 | Hitotsu (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (6 of 16) 3/1F | John Allen Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (AUS) |
| 2020 2:41.91 | Johnny Get Angry (NZ) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 14) 20/1 | Lachlan King Denis Pagan (AUS) |
| 2019 2:40.83 | Warning (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (10 of 15) 17/2 | Damien Oliver Anthony Freedman (AUS) |
| 2018 2:34.31 | Extra Brut (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (13 of 16) 9/1 | John Allen Darren Weir (AUS) |
| 2017 2:37.55 | Ace High (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (3 of 16) 6/1F | Tye Angland David Payne (AUS) |
| 2016 2:36.16 | Prized Icon (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (4 of 16) 16/1 | Glyn Schofield James Cummings (AUS) |
| 2015 2:38.39 | Tarzino (NZ) 3yo 8-10 (10 of 16) 19/10F | Craig Newitt Mick Price (AUS) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Victoria Derby have been based:
- AUS: 10 winners with an additional 18 placings from 149 runners
- NZ: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 7 runners
- SIN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
2024 Victoria Derby Replay
Victoria Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Victoria Derby over the last 10 renewals is Chris Waller, who has won the race two times, with those two winners coming from Manzoice (2022) and Riff Rocket (2023). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Victoria Derby; Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young have sent a total of 15 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are the Victoria Derby trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Waller | 6-2-2 | +17.20 | +6.60 |
| Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | 15-0-2 | -15.00 | -14.00 |
| Matt Cumani | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -3.90 |
| Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| Ciaron Maher | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Andrew Forsman | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Nick Ryan | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Mark Walker | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Victoria Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Victoria Derby over the last 10 renewals is John Allen, who has won the race two times, with those two winners coming from Extra Brut (2018) and Hitotsu (2021).
Here are the Victoria Derby jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Allen (Arcora) | 7-2-3 | +7.00 | +1.50 |
| Michael Dee (Azazel) | 4-1-1 | +17.00 | +7.00 |
| Jamie Kah (McWoody) | 4-1-1 | +4.00 | +0.50 |
| Mark Zahra (Observer) | 8-0-2 | -8.00 | -7.00 |
| Ben Melham (Savisanta) | 6-0-2 | -6.00 | -5.00 |
| Jye McNeil (One Step Closer) | 6-0-0 | -6.00 | -6.00 |
| Craig A Williams (Providence) | 6-0-0 | -6.00 | -6.00 |
| Blake Shinn (Autumn Mystery) | 5-0-0 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Jordan Childs (Miewa) | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| Declan Bates (Amazake) | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -2.50 |
| Kerrin McEvoy (OSheamus) | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| Tommy Berry (Engine Of War) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Jamie Mott (Highvol) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Ben Allen (Freddie Bassett) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Daniel Stackhouse (Deal Done Fast) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Harry Coffey (Options) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
2025 Victoria Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 2, 1, 12, 5, 3, 1, 2, 1, 5
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 10 / 10 (47%) - Within the first 7 of the market
- 10 / 10 (50%) - No bigger than 20/1
- 10 / 10 (65%) - Not in a LST/Cl2-4 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (68%) - Furthest ran 6f - 1m2f
- 10 / 10 (74%) - In a field of 7 - 15 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (82%) - Carried 125 - 127lbs (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (83%) - Not on HY/SFT (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (87%) - Carried 123 - 128lbs (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (89%) - Dam is not ARG/GB/GER/IRE/USA bred
- 10 / 10 (89%) - Fewer than 3 placings (90 Days)
- 10 / 10 (89%) - Ran over 5f - 1m1f (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (89%) - Placed within last 2 starts
- 9 / 10 (62%) - Furthest Placed 7f - 1m2f
- 9 / 10 (71%) - Break of 7 - 48 days (Last Place)
- 9 / 10 (79%) - Highest Placed is not Cl4
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Flemington racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Victoria Derby. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Victoria Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Victoria Derby Trend Shortlist
Flemington will host the 2025 renewal of the Victoria Derby, which will be run at 5:20 am on Saturday, 1st November 2025, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Autumn Mystery (12/1)
- Rory Hunter (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
- Blake Shinn (5-0-0 -5.00 / -5.00)
- 15/15 Miewa (18/1)
- Nick Ryan (1-0-0 -1.00 / -1.00)
- Jordan Childs (4-0-0 -4.00 / -4.00)
Others: Engine Of War (14/15), OSheamus (14/15), Observer (14/15), Providence (14/15), Arabian Prince (13/15), Options (13/15), Amazake (12/15), Highvol (11/15), One Step Closer (11/15), Arcora (11/15), Azazel (11/15), Deal Done Fast (11/15), Crack A Deel (10/15), Freddie Bassett (10/15), McWoody (10/15), Super Paradise (10/15), Matsuda (9/15) and Savisanta (6/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (11:31 am Wednesday 29th October 2025), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Victoria Derby Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +23.40, is when runners have had 2 places in the past 90 days.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran over 1m3f last time out, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-46.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 13 (7,6) [16 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 5 (3,16) [16 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 7 (3,2) [16 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 6 (8,3) [16 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 5 (9,4) [14 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Victoria Derby is Caulfield; there have been a total of 4 winners of this race who ran at Caulfield last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Moonee Valley; there have been a total of 3 winners of this race who ran at Moonee Valley last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Victoria Derby:
- American Pharoah (2 Wins)
- Tavistock (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Victoria Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Dundeel (0 Wins from 11 runners)
- Savabeel (0 Wins from 9 runners)
- Fastnet Rock (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Sebring (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Fiorente (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Johnny Get Angry in 2020, winning for Denis Pagan at odds of 20/1 under the guidance of Lachlan King. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2025 Victoria Derby. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Route to the Victoria Derby
Many trainers will target races to use as prep races before coming to the Victoria Derby. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2024 - Goldrush Guru Morphettville - 7th of 11 (50/1) | Breeders Stakes |
| 2023 - Riff Rocket Caulfield - 2nd of 7 (2/7) | Neds |
| 2022 - Manzoice Randwick - 8th of 12 (20/1) | Moet & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes |
| 2021 - Hitotsu Caulfield - 5th of 15 (25/1) | Neds Caulfield Guineas |
| 2020 - Johnny Get Angry Moonee Valley - 3rd of 8 (12/1) | Drummond Golf Vase |
| 2019 - Warning Caulfield - 2nd of 9 (16/5) | Ladbrokes |
| 2018 - Extra Brut Caulfield - 6th of 9 (23/10) | Ladbrokes |
| 2017 - Ace High Randwick - 1st of 10 (31/10) | Moet & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes |
| 2016 - Prized Icon Moonee Valley - 5th of 10 (11/2) | LUCRF Super Vase |
| 2015 - Tarzino Moonee Valley - 3rd of 11 (23/5) | Dilmah Exceptional Teas Vase |
Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival
Here are the other races that take place at the Flemington Racetrack during the Melbourne Cup Carnival that we also cover with blogs.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Coolmore Stud Stakes | Switzerland (AUS) 3yo - 9/2 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
| Empire Rose Stakes | Atishu (NZ) 7yo - 13/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
| Victoria Derby | Goldrush Guru (AUS) 3yo - 7/1 | Andrew Gluyas Jamie Kah |
| Melbourne Cup | Knights Choice (AUS) 5yo - 90/1 | John Symons & Sheila Laxon Robbie Dolan |
| Crown Oaks | Treasurethe Moment (AUS) 3yo - 21/10 | Matt Laurie Damian Lane |
| VRC Champions Mile | Mr Brightside (NZ) 7yo - 4/1 | Ben, Will & JD Hayes Craig A Williams |
| VRC Champions Sprint | Sunshine In Paris (AUS) 5yo - 4/1 | Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald James McDonald |
| VRC Champions Stakes | Via Sistina (IRE) 6yo - 3/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Victoria Derby Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team, looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
