Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Victoria Derby Preview
Established in 1855 and scheduled to take place in late October or early November of each year at the Flemington racecourse is the Victoria Derby, this Group 1 race is the feature race on the opening day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival, it features on the Saturday before Tuesday's Melbourne Cup. This race like its equivalents in the UK is open to runners aged three years old and is run over a distance of 2,500m.
Victoria Derby Information:
Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Flemington tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival section for links to these.
How competitive is the Victoria Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2024 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 119%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Victoria Derby, the over-round has been 116%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.
Victoria Derby Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Victoria Derby next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -3.00. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Victoria Derby see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2010 renewal when Lion Tamer from Murray & Bjorn Baker under the guidance of Hugh Bowman, won in a time of 2:46.43, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Extra Brut, trained by Darren Weir and ridden by John Allen set the quickest time of 2:34.31 in the 2018 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Victoria Derby over the last 20 renewals:
- Extra Brut (2:34.31) in 2018
- Fiveandahalfstar (2:35.92) in 2012
- Prized Icon (2:36.16) in 2016
Victoria Derby Past Winners
Here are the Victoria Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Victoria Derby are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 2:37.78 | Goldrush Guru (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 16) 7/1 | Jamie Kah Andrew Gluyas (AUS) |
| 2023 2:37.38 | Riff Rocket (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 16) 6/5F | James McDonald Chris Waller (AUS) |
| 2022 2:40.86 | Manzoice (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 16) 20/1 | Michael Dee Chris Waller (AUS) |
| 2021 2:37.32 | Hitotsu (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (6 of 16) 3/1F | John Allen Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (AUS) |
| 2020 2:41.91 | Johnny Get Angry (NZ) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 14) 20/1 | Lachlan King Denis Pagan (AUS) |
| 2019 2:40.83 | Warning (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (10 of 15) 17/2 | Damien Oliver Anthony Freedman (AUS) |
| 2018 2:34.31 | Extra Brut (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (13 of 16) 9/1 | John Allen Darren Weir (AUS) |
| 2017 2:37.55 | Ace High (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (3 of 16) 6/1F | Tye Angland David Payne (AUS) |
| 2016 2:36.16 | Prized Icon (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (4 of 16) 16/1 | Glyn Schofield James Cummings (AUS) |
| 2015 2:38.39 | Tarzino (NZ) 3yo 8-10 (10 of 16) 19/10F | Craig Newitt Mick Price (AUS) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Victoria Derby have been based:
- AUS: 16 winners with an additional 35 placings from 273 runners
- NZ: 2 winners with an additional 2 placings from 13 runners
- HK: 1 winner with an additional 3 placings from 9 runners
- SIN: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 9 runners
- KOR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Victoria Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Victoria Derby over the last 20 renewals is Chris Waller who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Preferment (2014), Manzoice (2022) and Riff Rocket (2023). Two trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Victoria Derby, Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young have sent a total of 16 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst Danny O'Brien has sent out 12 without a winner.
Here are some of the top Victoria Derby trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Waller | 7-3-3 | +24.70 | +10.35 |
| Robbie Laing | 10-1-2 | -4.50 | -6.25 |
| David A Hayes | 9-1-4 | -4.00 | -3.30 |
| Michael Moroney | 7-1-3 | -2.25 | -2.75 |
| Mick Price | 7-1-2 | -4.10 | -3.35 |
| Anthony Cummings | 6-1-3 | +35.00 | +16.00 |
| James Cummings | 6-1-3 | +11.00 | +4.00 |
| Lee Freedman | 6-1-1 | +5.00 | +0.00 |
| David Payne | 5-1-2 | +2.00 | -0.50 |
| Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | 5-1-1 | -1.00 | -2.50 |
Victoria Derby Jockey Statistics
There are two leading jockeys in the Victoria Derby over the last 20 renewals with both Damien Oliver and Hugh Bowman who have both won the race three times. Damien Oliver winners have been with Fiveandahalfstar (2012), Preferment (2014) and Warning (2019). Hugh Bowman winners have been with Lion Tamer (2010), Sangster (2011) and Polanski (2013). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Victoria Derby is John Allen (2 wins). Multiple jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Victoria Derby, Mark Zahra (0-11), Blake Shinn (0-10), Kerrin McEvoy (0-10) and Dwayne Dunn (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple rides to the race.
Here are some of the top Victoria Derby jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Oliver | 15-3-6 | +44.00 | +18.78 |
| Hugh Bowman | 12-3-4 | +19.50 | +5.75 |
| John Allen | 7-2-3 | +7.00 | +1.50 |
| Craig A Williams | 15-1-2 | -10.00 | -11.10 |
| Craig Newitt | 11-1-2 | -8.10 | -7.35 |
| James McDonald | 11-1-4 | -8.80 | -7.90 |
| Michael Rodd | 6-1-3 | -3.60 | -3.23 |
| Corey Brown | 5-1-1 | -0.25 | -1.75 |
| Michael Dee | 4-1-1 | +17.00 | +7.00 |
| Jamie Kah | 4-1-1 | +4.00 | +0.50 |
2025 Victoria Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 4, 1, 3, 2, 5, 5, 6, 7, 14, 8, 1, 2, 1, 12, 5, 3, 1, 2, 1, 5
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 20 / 20 (74%) - Within the first 11 of the market
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Dam is not ARG/CAN/GB/GER/JPN/USA bred
- 18 / 20 (50%) - No bigger than 20/1
- 16 / 20 (63%) - Not in a LST/Cl2-4 (LTO)
- 16 / 20 (66%) - Furthest ran 6f - 1m2f
- 16 / 20 (67%) - In a field of 7 - 15 (LTO)
- 16 / 20 (76%) - Beaten no more -8¼l (Debut)
- 16 / 20 (77%) - Carried 121 - 128lbs (Debut)
- 16 / 20 (80%) - Carried 122 - 127lbs (LTO)
- 16 / 20 (80%) - In a field of 7 - 16 (Debut)
- 16 / 20 (81%) - Not in a Handicap (LTO)
- 16 / 20 (82%) - Off a break of 7 - 189 days
- 16 / 20 (82%) - Not in a Cl5-6 (Debut)
- 16 / 20 (83%) - Not on SLW (Debut)
- 16 / 20 (89%) - Won within last 2 starts
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Flemington racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Victoria Derby. You may want to do your research into the race, there are times when there are several runners who pass the trends so you need to do your research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Victoria Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
Victoria Derby Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +133.10 is when runners ran in a race restricted to 2yo on debut.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran over 1m3f last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-51.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 13 (7,6) [16 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 5 (3,16) [16 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 7 (3,2) [16 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 6 (8,3) [16 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 5 (9,4) [14 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Victoria Derby is Caulfield, there has been a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Caulfield last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Randwick and Moonee Valley, there has been a total number of 4 winners from each of those courses.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Victoria Derby:
- American Pharoah (2 Wins)
- High Chaparral (2 Wins)
- More Than Ready (2 Wins)
- Tavistock (2 Wins)
- Zabeel (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Victoria Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Encosta De Lago (0 Wins from 12 runners)
- Redoutes Choice (0 Wins from 12 runners)
- Dundeel (0 Wins from 11 runners)
- Fastnet Rock (0 Wins from 11 runners)
- Sebring (0 Wins from 8 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rebel Raider in 2008, winning for Leon Macdonald at odds of 100/1 under the guidance of Clare Lindop. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 5 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Victoria Derby Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Tipster Competition Assistant
Andy Powell
Content Editor
Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival
Here are the other races that take place at the Flemington Racetrack during the Melbourne Cup Carnival that we also cover with blogs.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Coolmore Stud Stakes Victoria Derby Day | Switzerland (AUS) 3yo - 9/2 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
| Empire Rose Stakes Victoria Derby Day | Atishu (NZ) 7yo - 13/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
| Victoria Derby Victoria Derby Day | Goldrush Guru (AUS) 3yo - 7/1 | Andrew Gluyas Jamie Kah |
| Melbourne Cup Melbourne Cup Day | Knights Choice (AUS) 5yo - 90/1 | John Symons & Sheila Laxon Robbie Dolan |
| Crown Oaks Kennedy Oaks Day | Treasurethe Moment (AUS) 3yo - 21/10 | Matt Laurie Damian Lane |
| VRC Champions Mile Champions Stakes Day | Mr Brightside (NZ) 7yo - 4/1 | Ben, Will & JD Hayes Craig A Williams |
| VRC Champions Sprint Champions Stakes Day | Sunshine In Paris (AUS) 5yo - 4/1 | Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald James McDonald |
| VRC Champions Stakes Champions Stakes Day | Via Sistina (IRE) 6yo - 3/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
