Empire Rose Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis (The Melbourne Cup Carnival)

We look at the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 1m at Flemington during The Melbourne Cup Carnival to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the Empire Rose Stakes.

Empire Rose Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis (The Melbourne Cup Carnival)
2022 Empire Rose Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis (Melbourne Cup Carnival)

2023 Empire Rose Stakes Preview

Scheduled to take place in either late October or early November of each year at the Flemington racecourse is the Empire Rose Stakes, a race that features on the opening day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival, the Saturday before the Melbourne Cup takes place. Created in 1988, this race was originally Listed status but was upgraded in 1995 to G3, then again in 1997 to G2 and finally, since 2004 has held G1 status. The race is open to fillies and mares who are aged three or older and is run over a 1,600m distance.

Empire Rose Stakes Content:

We also have a dedicated Flemington Betting Picks page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards.

The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2022 renewal when Icebath from Brad Widdup under the guidance of Craig A Williams, won in a time of 1:37.81, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Colette, trained by James Cummings and ridden by Damien Oliver set the quickest time of 1:34.84 in the 2021 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Empire Rose Stakes over the last 10 renewals:

  • 2021 - Colette (1:34.84)
  • 2018 - Shillelagh (1:34.86)
  • 2017 - Shoals (1:35.26)

How competitive is the Empire Rose Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2017 when the race had an over-round of 113%. The race in 2016 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 118%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Empire Rose Stakes, the over-round has been 116%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Empire Rose Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 1 winner. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -7.40. Whilst we wait for the 2023 Empire Rose Stakes remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

Empire Rose Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Empire Rose Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Empire Rose Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2022
1:37.81
Icebath (NZ)
6yo 9-0 (3 of 16) 10/1
Craig A Williams
Brad Widdup (AUS)
2021
1:34.84
Colette (AUS)
5yo 9-0 (8 of 14) 12/1
Damien Oliver
James Cummings (AUS)
2020
1:35.37
Shout The Bar (AUS)
4yo 8-13 (11 of 13) 30/1
Damien Oliver
Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (AUS)
2019
1:37.78
Melody Belle (NZ)
5yo 9-0 (13 of 16) 14/5F
Opie Bosson
Jamie Richards (NZ)
2018
1:34.86
Shillelagh (NZ)
7yo 9-0 (9 of 16) 11/2
James McDonald
Chris Waller (AUS)
2017
1:35.26
Shoals (AUS)
3yo 7-12 (10 of 16) 19/5F
Dean Yendall
Anthony Freedman (AUS)
2016
1:35.56
I Am A Star (NZ)
3yo 7-10 (10 of 15) 15/2
Dean Yendall
Shane Nichols (AUS)
2015
1:37.75
Politeness (AUS)
5yo 9-0 (10 of 15) 18/1
Dwayne Dunn
Robert Smerdon (AUS)
2014
1:36.55
Bonaria (AUS)
6yo 9-0 (13 of 16) 25/1
Michael Rodd
Pat Hyland (AUS)
2013
1:36.45
Red Tracer (AUS)
6yo 9-0 (10 of 14) 21/10F
Nash Rawiller
Chris Waller (AUS)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Empire Rose Stakes have been based:

  • AUS: 9 winners with an additional 20 placings from 143 runners
  • NZ: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 8 runners

Empire Rose Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Empire Rose Stakes over the last 10 renewals is Chris Waller who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Red Tracer (2013) & Shillelagh (2018).

Here are some of the top Empire Rose Stakes trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Chris Waller 16-2-6 -6.40 -3.44
Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 4-1-1 +27.00 +15.00
James Cummings 4-1-1 +9.00 +4.20
Robert Smerdon 3-1-1 +16.00 +8.80
Shane Nichols 3-1-1 +5.50 +2.50
Pat Hyland 2-1-1 +24.00 +11.50
Jamie Richards 2-1-1 +1.80 +0.40
Brad Widdup 1-1-1 +10.00 +5.00
Anthony Freedman 1-1-1 +3.80 +1.90
Darren Weir 7-0-0 -7.00 -7.00

Empire Rose Stakes Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Empire Rose Stakes over the last ten renewals with both Damien Oliver & Dean Yendall who have both won the race 2 times. Damien Oliver winners have been with Shout The Bar (2020) & Colette (2021). Dean Yendall winners have been with I Am A Star (2016) & Shoals (2017).

Here are some of the top Empire Rose Stakes jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Damien Oliver 7-2-4 +37.00 +21.20
Dean Yendall 4-2-3 +9.30 +5.90
Craig A Williams 10-1-2 +1.00 -3.50
James McDonald 5-1-2 +1.50 +1.75
Dwayne Dunn 4-1-1 +15.00 +7.80
Opie Bosson 2-1-1 +1.80 +0.40
Michael Rodd 1-1-1 +25.00 +12.50
Nash Rawiller 1-1-1 +2.10 +1.26
Damian Lane 7-0-0 -7.00 -7.00
Hugh Bowman 6-0-1 -6.00 -2.50

2023 Empire Rose Stakes Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,1,8,13,12,1,11,1,7,7,4

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

  • 10 / 10 (63%) - Ran over 5½f - 7f (Debut)
  • 10 / 10 (63%) - Achieved a RPR of 98+ (Class)
  • 10 / 10 (65%) - Made 6-11 starts (Season)
  • 10 / 10 (66%) - Had 2-10 wins (Career)
  • 10 / 10 (69%) - Within first 10 of market
  • 10 / 10 (70%) - Achieved a RPR of 101+ (Last 3)
  • 10 / 10 (75%) - No bigger than 14/1 (Career Win)
  • 10 / 10 (77%) - Not on HVY/GS/GF (Last Win)
  • 10 / 10 (79%) - Achieved a RPR of 90+ (Trip)
  • 10 / 10 (79%) - No bigger than 15/1 (LTO)
  • 10 / 10 (80%) - Field of 7-15 (Last Win)
  • 10 / 10 (81%) - Furthest placed 7½f - 1m4f
  • 10 / 10 (81%) - No bigger than 14/1 (Last Win)
  • 10 / 10 (81%) - Had 2-8 placings (1 Year)
  • 10 / 10 (83%) - Furthest ran of 1m - 1m4f

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Flemington racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Empire Rose Stakes. How well do you know your horse racing? Are there certain types of races that you are unsure of? Why not take a look at this Types Of Horse Race article to familiarise yourself with the different types of racing, that is just one of many helpful horse racing articles in the OLBG Betting School.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Empire Rose Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Empire Rose Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +16.40 is when runners had a highest class won of Class 1 (G1). The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 season win, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-50.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2022: Winner in 3 (15,4) [16 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 8 (3,12) [14 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 11 (7,13) [13 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 13 (1,6) [16 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 9 (8,14) [16 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Empire Rose Stakes is Caulfield, there has been a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Caulfield last time out.

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Empire Rose Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Street Cry (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Sebring (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Snitzel (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Shout The Bar in 2020, winning for Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott at odds of 30/1 under the guidance of Damien Oliver. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there has been a total of 3 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2023 Empire Rose Stakes remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

Other Principal races at Flemington racecourse

Here are some other notable races at the Flemington racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races at the Melbourne Cup Carnival

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