Horse Racing Trainers To Follow In July

Horse Racing Trainers To Follow In July
Horse Racing Trainers To Follow In July

July Trainers

We go into the second half of the year full of confidence after a fantastic June which has put us around +£40 LSP for the year.  

We have 9 trainers this month, 5 back from last July and 4 new to the month.  We have flat and NH either side of the Irish Sea and an AW regular.  With Goodwood and Galway to look forward to at the end of the month and it's all in July this year which makes things less messy.

 

GB FLAT TURF

 

DAVID O'MEARA (ALL)

We'll start with a newcomer to the July blog and one that will keep us very busy throughout the month with 150+ likely runners his performance will be massively important.

  • 2018     27/136     20%    +£12.29
  • 2019     20/132     15%      (£32.89)
  • 2020     22/158     14%     +£67.45
  • 2021     27/170     16%     +£19.42

It's rare that a trainer with so many runners shows a LSP in 3 of 4 years, with 20+ winners it offers so much potential EP gains as well, it might sound ridiculous but with 20 winners it wouldn't be impossible to turn the (£32.89) into a profit with EP gains.  If he bombs out it's obviously disaster but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that won't happen.

 

ROGER & HARRY CHARLTON (3yo+)

Back from last month where they proved a solid selection, we are omitting the 2yo's this month though. 

  • 2018     6/29     21%     +£13.50
  • 2019     3/23     13%     +£  6.50
  • 2020     7/36     19%     +£  4.85
  • 2021    10/37    27%     +£  7.07

Solid stuff and even in the quiet year managed a small LSP.

 

GEORGE SCOTT (ALL)

The only flat turf trainer back from last year.

  • 2016     4/18     22%     +£21.13
  • 2017     3/12     25%      (£ 5.33)
  • 2018     7/16     44%     +£ 3.11
  • 2019     4/21     19%      +£ 0.88
  • 2020     1/24       4%       (£21.38)
  • 2021     4/22      18%     +£  4.80

Our own EP figures last year were +£7.60, so almost 3 points extra on just 4 winners.  I will find easy to forgive many trainers in 2020, just after covid many still had issues.  Comes into the month with his last two runners winning.

 

PAUL MIDGLEY (ALL)

North Yorkshire trainer who is reknown for training sprinters and can land some big priced winners.

  • 2017     8/61     13%     +£  2.50
  • 2018     5/51     10%      (£24.88)
  • 2019     7/46     15%     +£  2.75
  • 2020     9/54     17%     +£11.92
  • 2021     6/51     12%     +£20.50

I nearly didn't put this guy in but I just can't ignore the LSP and weirdly the low strike rate almost makes him more attractive because what it shows is he must have had 1 or 2 big priced winners in each of the profitable years.  Last month we made loads of extra profit from massive priced winners that were even bigger win only on the exchanges and Midgley could easily have a couple of these and if he does we could double or treble the LSP above.

 

MARCO BOTTI (3yo's)

An AW blog regular, we have made a profit from his AW 3yo's in recent years.

  • 2015     2/9     22%     (£0.25)
  • 2016     1/3     33%    +£3.50
  • 2017     2/8     25%    +£3.50
  • 2018     2/7     29%    +£7.38
  • 2019     1/8     13%     +£7.00
  • 2020     1/3     33%    +£3.50
  • 2021     1/8     13%      (£1.00)

We had his winner at 16's last year so made a +£9.00 LSP, it must have won at 6's judging by the SP loss but that just shows how much extra can be made taking the Early Prices.

 

 

GB NH

 

CHARLIE LONGSDON (ALL)

Has become a regular in July, we said he was in last chance saloon last year but he did the business so we have to include again.

  • 2015     2/9     22%     +£0.00
  • 2016     2/15   13%     +£3.00
  • 2017     4/15   27%     +£2.25
  • 2018     4/17   24%    +£20.00
  • 2019     1/14    7%      +£1.00
  • 2020     3/21    14%      (£6.50)
  • 2021     2/9     22%     +£4.88

Another who struggled post Covid, our own figures were slightly better last year and he comes into the month on the back of a 20% strike rate and +£12 LSP in June.

 

PETER BOWEN (ALL)

A trainer that usually makes hay while the sun shines.  He can normally be relied upon throughout the summer and his results June have been really good.

  • 2017     7/29     24%    +£ 9.25
  • 2018    10/40    25%    +£56.53
  • 2019     5/32     16%      (£2.75)
  • 2020     0/39      0%      (£39.00)
  • 2020     4/25     16%      (£2.15)

I've just written off 2020, lockdown clearly had a massive effect on the stable as he only had 2 winners between March and September, has done really well for us in June (30% strike rate) and no reason why that should change.  We were virtually level with him last year and we made a +£2.60 profit in 2019, I think we need to stick with him.

 

IRISH NH

WILLIE MULLINS (ALL) 

Just his NH runners this year and Galway is entirely in July this year which helps with the figures as Galway ran into August last year.

  • 2013 10/31 32% +£ 3.49
  • 2014 14/31 45% +£10.66
  • 2015 14/51 27% (£16.23)
  • 2016 18/44 41% +£12.54
  • 2017 16/43 37% +£4.72
  • 2018 20/39 51% +£25.37
  • 2019 8/27   30%  (£6.63)
  • 2020 10/42 24%   (£8.72)
  • 2021 11/63 17%    (£0.75)

His strike rate was well down last year and we still made a profit +£3.18 on our EP figures so if he reaches 25%+ (like usual) that can only add to the profits.

 

 

IRISH FLAT 

 

P TWOMEY (ALL)

Tipperary trainer who I know very little about (not even his first name) but he has some really solid July figures.

  • 2018     1/4      25%     +£3.50
  • 2019     0/2       0%      (£2.00)
  • 2020     6/23    26%    +£12.95
  • 2021     3/8      38%    +£ 0.32

Comes into the month in unbelievable form, 5 winners from his last 10 runners and that included a Group 1 that he had the winner of at 20's that was disqualified promoting his other horse to win at 9's, if we were betting him we would have probably got paid out on both!

 

As always any questions, comments or observations leave below, a repeat of June would be lovely!!!

 

 

Results

1st - Steady start, winners for Midgley and Scott, small loss.     3/18     (£3.37)

2nd - Quieter than I expected but winners fo O'Meara, Midgley, Scott and Charlton for a winning day.     4/20     +£3.30

3rd - Two short ones for Mullins, tiny loss.     2/5     (£0.95)

4th - Brilliant day winners for Longsdon 16's (returned 10's) and O'Meara at 5's.     2/8     +£15.00

5th - Almost level, winners for O'Meara and Scott.     2/6     (£0.28)

6th - Good day, two drifters won, O'Meara at 11/2 and Scott at 17/2 which is where Best Odds Guaranteed helps.     2/9     +£7.00

7th - First bad day in ages, just a Charlton winner from loads of runners.     1/14     (£10.50)*

7th - Missed Twomey winner at 15/8 , amended figures.     2/15     (£7.63)*

8th - Three winners for Mullins but loads of runners so loss I'm afraid.     3/20     (£7.94)

9th - Jeez, shocker, can't afford Saturday blanks and this was a massive one.     0/17     (£17.00)

10th - Nice nice for Longsdon (10's) got some of yesterday's loss back.     1/5     +£6.00

11th - Bowen winner, tiny loss.     1/5     (£1.00)

12th - Not knowing any results I got in from work to watch the last runner live, it wins at 15/2 so profit no matter what the rest do.  I proceed to watch the replays of the rest with the prospect of a nice day and.........no more winners!!!   If I'd have watched the other way, it would have been a "got out of jail day"   

1/8     +£0.50

13th - Just a short priced Bowen winner, losing day.     1/6     (£3.97) 

14th - This was a get out of jail day, last horse won at 6's.     2/10     (£1.70)

15th - Four winners today but nothing bigger than 5's so tiny loss.     4/18     (£0.78)

16th - Another losing Satuday but not on the scale of last week.     2/12     (£3.50)

17th - Good day, 12's winner for O'Meara and two short ones for Scott and Mullins.     3/9     +£8.19

18th - O'Meara comes to the party again, winners at 10's and 9/2.     2/8     +£8.50

19th - Quiet day for racing but we still managed 2 out of 3, O'Meara and Mullins.     2/3     +£5.60

20th - Another really good day, three Mullins winners at Limerick (2 at bigger prices than I expected, 6's and 4's) and a O'Meara double.     5/12     +£7.22

21st - O'Meara winner in the last to give us a small losing day.     1/7     (£1.75)

22nd - Poor day, O'Meara blanked from loads of runners, Twomey softened the blow a little bit.     1/12     (£8.50)

23rd - "Last month we made loads of extra profit from massive priced winners that were even bigger win only on the exchanges and Midgley could easily have a couple of these and if he does we could double or treble the LSP above."

Exhibit A - Birkenhead - Bet at 50 on the exchanges, returned 25's

Apart from that was a quiet day with just a Charlton winner from loads of runners but that doesn't matter.     2/17     +£37.50

24th - Quiet day, 2 seconds and a third.     0/4     (£4.00)

25th - Just a late odds on winner for Charlton.     1/8     (£6.09)

26th - Pretty poor day apart from one race.....Midgley again, no exchange gains but a cracking 28/1 winner.     1/11     +£18.00

27th - Slightly frustrating day, Mullins had a flat winner at Galway at 28's, looked back on figure and he is 1/26 with his flat runners in July for the past 2 years, I think next year we just bet all his Galway runners and nothing else of his in July.     3/17     (£5.95)

28th - O'Meara went close with a 33's shot early then Mullins again at Galway, we managed 20/1 on the first winner on the exchanges (returned 9's) so another great day.                    2/11     +£14.00

29th - Another fantastic day, Orbaan for O'Meara at 30's on the exchange (he had the 1-2 in that race), a Bowen winner then to crown the day a Scott winner at night, won at 12's bet at 30 on the exchanges.     3/12     +£38.17   ***amended, realised I'd halved my profit on the Scott horse.     3/12     +£53.67

30th - Back down to earth today, just two short ones for Mullins and Charlton but that can't cloud what has been another fantastic month.     2/18     (£14.25)

31st - Just an even money winner on the last day but that can't spoil what has been another cracking month.     1/5     (£3.00)

 

 

 

Monthly Results

62/336     +£92.82

 

Yearly Total

279/1647     +£132.35

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