Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Ulster National Preview
The Ulster National is run at the Downpatrick Racecourse and is a handicap chase open to runners aged five or older.
The race is run over three miles, four and a half furlongs where the runners will face a total of 16 fences.
Ulster National Information:
Our dedicated Downpatrick tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Ulster National but will also have predictions for each meeting at Downpatrick throughout the season so be sure to head over there.
How competitive is the Ulster National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2019 when the race had an over-round of 120%. The race in 2006 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 149%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Ulster National, the over-round has been 129%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £129 which is bet.
Ulster National Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Ulster National next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -8.87. Ahead of the 2025 Ulster National why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2023 renewal when Malina Girl from Gavin Cromwell under the guidance of Keith Donoghue, won in a time of 8:00.50, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Ballytrim, trained by W P Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend set the quickest time of 7:14.50 in the 2009 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Ulster National over the last 20 renewals:
- Ballytrim (7:14.50) in 2009
- Jumping Jet (7:14.60) in 2024
- News Item (7:14.80) in 2006
What the expert says...
You need a reliable jumper for this race, ideally one who has either never fallen or only fallen once. Those who have fallen two or more times during their career have only produced one winner from 79 runners which came when Duroob won in 2012 having previously fallen four times.Ulster National Past Winners
Here are the Ulster National past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Ulster National as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 7:14.60 | Jumping Jet (IRE) 8yo 10-0 5/1 | Carl Millar (7lbs) Gordon Elliott (IRE) |
| 2023 8:00.50 | Malina Girl (IRE) 6yo 11-3 13/2 | Keith Donoghue Gavin Cromwell (IRE) |
| 2022 7:47.60 | Spades Are Trumps (IRE) 9yo 10-5 5/1 | Mark McDonagh (7lbs) Gavin Cromwell (IRE) |
| 2021 7:26.30 | Fag An Bealach (IRE) 7yo 10-5 17/2 | Darragh O'Keeffe A L T Moore (IRE) |
| 2020 7:40.40 | Space Cadet (IRE) 10yo 10-11 25/1 | Mr B W Harvey (7lbs) Gearoid O'Loughlin (IRE) |
| 2019 7:30.20 | Amaulino (FR) 6yo 10-10 8/1 | Andrew Ring R K Watson (IRE) |
| 2018 7:45.10 | Poormans Hill (IRE) 7yo 10-9 11/4F | Jack Kennedy Gordon Elliott (IRE) |
| 2017 7:19.80 | Anseanachai Cliste (IRE) 9yo 9-5 8/1 | Dylan Robinson (5lbs) Stephen McConville (IRE) |
| 2016 7:18.20 | Federici (GB) 7yo 11-0 7/1 | A P Heskin E Bolger (IRE) |
| 2015 7:19.90 | Riverside City (IRE) 6yo 10-4 9/1 | Davy Condon Gordon Elliott (IRE) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Ulster National have been based:
- IRE: 20 winners with an additional 40 placings from 263 runners
- GB: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Ulster National Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Ulster National over the last 20 renewals is Gordon Elliott who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Riverside City (2015), Poormans Hill (2018) and Jumping Jet (2024). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Ulster National are Gavin Cromwell (2 wins) and George Stewart (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Ulster National, C A McBratney has sent a total of 16 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Ulster National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Elliott | 26-3-4 | -6.25 | -11.87 |
| Gavin Cromwell | 7-2-4 | +6.50 | +5.03 |
| George Stewart | 5-2-2 | +7.00 | +3.25 |
| Noel Meade | 13-1-3 | -6.00 | -4.60 |
| S R B Crawford | 10-1-2 | -2.00 | -3.12 |
| R K Watson | 6-1-2 | +3.00 | +2.80 |
| E Bolger | 5-1-1 | +3.00 | +0.20 |
| Gearoid O'Loughlin | 4-1-2 | +22.00 | +17.26 |
| A L T Moore | 4-1-2 | +5.50 | +3.81 |
| W P Mullins | 4-1-2 | +5.00 | +3.19 |
Ulster National Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Ulster National over the last 20 renewals is A P Heskin who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Duroob (2012) and Federici (2016).
Here are some of the top Ulster National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| A P Heskin | 3-2-2 | +14.00 | +8.00 |
| Paul Townend | 6-1-3 | +3.00 | +1.85 |
| Darragh O'Keeffe | 4-1-2 | +5.50 | +5.31 |
| Danny Mullins | 4-1-1 | +3.50 | +1.06 |
| Jack Kennedy | 4-1-1 | -0.25 | -1.35 |
| Keith Donoghue | 3-1-2 | +4.50 | +4.31 |
| Mr B W Harvey | 2-1-1 | +24.00 | +14.63 |
| Dylan Robinson | 2-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.00 |
| Carl Millar | 1-1-1 | +5.00 | +3.13 |
| Mark McDonagh | 1-1-1 | +5.00 | +3.13 |
2025 Ulster National Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 8, (1, 4), 1, 4, F, 10, 10, 2, 4, 6, 6, 3, (4, 9, 10), 1, PU, (5, PU), F, BD, 5, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (64%) - Beaten no more -19l (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Carried 126 - 163lbs (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - In a field of 5 - 20 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Carried 143 - 168lbs (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Highest Won is not G1-2/LST
- 20 / 20 (87%) - No bigger than 14/1 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - In a field of 6 - 20 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Ran over 2m½f - 3m4f (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Within the first 12 of the market
- 20 / 20 (88%) - No older than a 10yo
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Not in a G1-2/LST (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Not in a Cl2/Cl6 (LTO)
- 19 / 20 (69%) - No more than 1 fall (Career)
- 18 / 20 (87%) - No bigger than 33/1 (Career Place)
- 17 / 20 (83%) - Achieved an RPR of 102+ (Last 3)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Downpatrick racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Ulster National. Maybe you are looking to back something in this race on the tote, but you are not sure of the process or how the tote works, No problem! We have an article which is dedicated to The Tote for you to read which explains everything you need to know! Be sure to check out the other articles in the OLBG Betting School.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Ulster National by adding a tip on the race here.
Ulster National Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +39.25 is when runners ran in a Class 4 when last winning. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had recorded 2 career falls, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-49.
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Ulster National are Leopardstown and Fairyhouse, there has been a total number of 5 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 16 winners from a total of 235 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 4 winners from a total of 32 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Ulster National:
- Old Vic (2 Wins)
- Stowaway (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Ulster National despite multiple attempts:
- Milan (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Supreme Leader (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Shantou (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Accordion (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Glacial Storm (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Space Cadet in 2020, winning for Gearoid O'Loughlin at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Mr B W Harvey. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Ulster National head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters today.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Ulster National Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
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