You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 Ulster National Preview
The Ulster National is run at the Downpatrick Racecourse and is a handicap chase open to runners aged five or older. The race is run over three miles and four and a half furlongs, and the runners will face a total of 16 fences.
Ulster National Information:
If you are interested in other predictions at Downpatrick, then head over to the Downpatrick tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below.
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How competitive is the Ulster National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2019, when the race had an over-round of 120%. The race in 2010 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 143%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Ulster National, the over-round has been 128%, which means the bookie expects to pay out ÂŁ100 for every ÂŁ128 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Ulster National Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Ulster National Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Ulster National races over the last 20 renewals:
- Ballytrim (7:14.50) in 2009
- Jumping Jet (7:14.60) in 2024
- Federici (7:18.20) in 2016
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Ulster National next time out, then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -8.87. Before placing your bet on the 2027 Ulster National, see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Ballytrim, trained by W P Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend, who set the fastest winning time in the Ulster National. That runner won the race in a time of 7:14.50 in 2009. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Gavin Cromwell and jockey Keith Donoghue with Malina Girl who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 8:00.50 in the 2023 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Ulster National Past Winners
Here are the Ulster National past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Ulster National are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 7:55.00 | Born Braver (IRE) 8yo 11-3 15/2 | Keith Donoghue Gavin Cromwell (IRE) |
| 2025 7:28.70 | Dunboyne (IRE) 10yo 10-8 15/2 | James Smith (5lbs) Ian Patrick Donoghue (IRE) |
| 2024 7:14.60 | Jumping Jet (IRE) 8yo 10-0 5/1 | Carl Millar (7lbs) Gordon Elliott (IRE) |
| 2023 8:00.50 | Malina Girl (IRE) 6yo 11-3 13/2 | Keith Donoghue Gavin Cromwell (IRE) |
| 2022 7:47.60 | Spades Are Trumps (IRE) 9yo 10-5 5/1 | Mark McDonagh (7lbs) Gavin Cromwell (IRE) |
| 2021 7:26.30 | Fag An Bealach (IRE) 7yo 10-5 17/2 | Darragh O'Keeffe A L T Moore (IRE) |
| 2020 7:40.40 | Space Cadet (IRE) 10yo 10-11 25/1 | Mr B W Harvey (7lbs) Gearoid O'Loughlin (IRE) |
| 2019 7:30.20 | Amaulino (FR) 6yo 10-10 8/1 | Andrew Ring R K Watson (IRE) |
| 2018 7:45.10 | Poormans Hill (IRE) 7yo 10-9 11/4F | Jack Kennedy Gordon Elliott (IRE) |
| 2017 7:19.80 | Anseanachai Cliste (IRE) 9yo 9-5 8/1 | Dylan Robinson (5lbs) Stephen McConville (IRE) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Ulster National have been based:
- IRE: 20 winners with an additional 40 placings from 266 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- GB: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Ulster National Trainer Statistics
There are two leading trainers in the Ulster National over the last 20 renewals, with both Gordon Elliott and Gavin Cromwell, who have both won the race three times. Gordon Elliott winners have been with Riverside City (2015), Poormans Hill (2018) and Jumping Jet (2024). Gavin Cromwell's winners have been with Spades Are Trumps (2022), Malina Girl (2023) and Born Braver (2026). One trainer has not had the best of times in the Ulster National; C A McBratney has sent a total of 15 runners to the race without recording a win.
Here are some of the top Ulster National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Elliott | 31-3-5 | -11.25 | -14.99 |
| Gavin Cromwell | 11-3-6 | +11.00 | +8.47 |
| Noel Meade | 13-1-3 | -6.00 | -4.60 |
| S R B Crawford | 10-1-2 | -2.00 | -3.12 |
| W P Mullins | 7-1-3 | +2.00 | +0.92 |
| R K Watson | 6-1-2 | +3.00 | +2.80 |
| E Bolger | 5-1-1 | +3.00 | +0.20 |
| Gearoid O'Loughlin | 4-1-2 | +22.00 | +17.26 |
| A L T Moore | 4-1-1 | +5.50 | +2.31 |
| Ian Patrick Donoghue | 4-1-2 | +4.50 | +3.19 |
Ulster National Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Ulster National over the last 20 renewals is Keith Donoghue, who has won the race two times, with those two winners coming from Malina Girl (2023) and Born Braver (2026).
Here are some of the top Ulster National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Donoghue | 5-2-4 | +11.00 | +9.75 |
| Paul Townend | 8-1-4 | +1.00 | +0.58 |
| Darragh O'Keeffe | 5-1-2 | +4.50 | +4.31 |
| Danny Mullins | 5-1-1 | +2.50 | +0.06 |
| Jack Kennedy | 5-1-1 | -1.25 | -2.35 |
| Mr B W Harvey | 2-1-1 | +24.00 | +14.63 |
| Dylan Robinson | 2-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.00 |
| James Smith | 1-1-1 | +7.50 | +4.69 |
| Carl Millar | 1-1-1 | +5.00 | +3.13 |
| Mark McDonagh | 1-1-1 | +5.00 | +3.13 |
2027 Ulster National Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 4, F, 10, 10, 2, 4, 6, 6, 3, (4, 9, 10), 1, PU, (5, PU), F, BD, 5, 2, PU, 2
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (65%) - Beaten no more -19l (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Ran in 5 - 19 races (Chase)
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Carried 147 - 168lbs (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Furthest Placed 2m4f - 3m4f
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Highest Won is not G1-2/LST
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Ran over 2m½f - 3m4f (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - In a field of 5 - 20 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Not in a Cl2/Cl6 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Within the first 12 of the market
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Not in a G1-2/LST (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - No older than a 10yo
- 19 / 20 (70%) - No more than 1 fall (Career)
- 19 / 20 (86%) - Held an OR of 101+ (LTO)
- 19 / 20 (86%) - No bigger than 33/1 (Debut)
- 17 / 20 (74%) - No bigger than 8/1 (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Downpatrick racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Ulster National. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over ÂŁ6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Ulster National by adding a tip on the race here.
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Ulster National Trend Analysis
â The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +34.25, is when runners ran in a Class 4 when last winning.
â The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had recorded 2 career falls, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-46.
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Ulster National are Leopardstown and Fairyhouse; there have been a total of 5 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 16 winners from a total of 236 runners, while female runners have produced 4 winners from a total of 32 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Ulster National:
- Stowaway (2 Wins)
- Yeats (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Ulster National despite multiple attempts:
- Milan (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Shantou (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Supreme Leader (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Accordion (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Leading Light (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Space Cadet in 2020, winning for Gearoid O'Loughlin at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Mr B W Harvey. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 2 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2027 Ulster National, head over to see which runners the best racing tipsters are tipping today.
Route to the Ulster National
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Ulster National. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Born Braver Punchestown - 12th of 14 (12/1) | Punchestown Grand National Trial |
| 2025 - Dunboyne Navan - 1st of 15 (66/1) | BoyleSports Money Back On Every Race At Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle |
| 2024 - Jumping Jet Fairyhouse - 5th of 8 (5/2) | BoyleSports Mares Handicap Chase |
| 2023 - Malina Girl Leopardstown - PU of 23 (23/1) | Dublin Racing Festival Handicap Chase |
| 2022 - Spades Are Trumps Fairyhouse - 5th of 9 (19/2) | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Rated Novice Chase |
| 2021 - Fag An Bealach Navan - 5th of 9 (11/1) | NavanRacecourse.ie Mares Handicap Chase |
| 2020 - Space Cadet Naas - 5th of 14 (20/1) | Leinster National |
| 2019 - Amaulino Leopardstown - 1st of 8 (14/1) | Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase |
| 2018 - Poormans Hill Gowran Park - 6th of 15 (4/1) | Leinster National |
| 2017 - Anseanachai Cliste Leopardstown - 5th of 11 (66/1) | Leopardstown Inn Hunters Chase |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Ulster National Preview are Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
Darren Brett
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
