2022 Scottish Grand National Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Feb 24, 11:08am Last Updated: Apr 19, 8:45pm Horse Racing 3 Comments 364 Views

2022 Scottish Grand National Preview

First run in 1858, the Scottish Grand National moved to its current home of Ayr in 1966. The race carries the same Grade 3, Class 1 status as the Aintree Grand National and the runners (aged 5 years and upwards) tackle 27 standard national hunt chase obstacles over a distance around 25 yards short of 4 miles.

Usually staged a couple of weeks later than Aintree depending on the Easter calendar. The only horse to win both races in the same year was the great Red Rum back in 1974, Music Hall was the first horse to win both in 1922 and the most recent dual winner Earth Summit in 1994 is the only horse to have won the Scottish, Welsh and English Grand Nationals.

The runner which holds the record over past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2014 renewal when Al Co from Peter Bowen who under the guidance of Jamie Moore, won in a time of 8:35.70, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Hot Weld, trained by Ferdy Murphy and ridden by P J McDonald set the quickest time of 7:55.10 in the 2007 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Scottish Grand National over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2007 - Hot Weld (7:55.10)
  • 2018 - Joe Farrell (8:00.50)
  • 2019 - Takingrisks (8:02.40)

How competitive is the Scottish Grand National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2007 when the race had an over-round of 125%. The race in 2018 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 145%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Scottish Grand National, the over-round has been 133% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £133 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Scottish Grand National next time out then you would have back a total of 2 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -5.00. Before placing your bet on the 2022 Scottish Grand National see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

Scottish Grand National Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Scottish Grand National. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Scottish Grand National as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Race Notes: The 2020 running was cancelled because of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom.

Year Horse Info
2021
8:21.70
Mighty Thunder
8yo 11-1 8/1
Tom Scudamore
Lucinda Russell
2019
8:02.40
Takingrisks
10yo 10-1 25/1
Sean Quinlan
Nicky Richards
2018
8:00.50
Joe Farrell
9yo 10-6 33/1
Adam Wedge
Rebecca Curtis
2017
8:05.50
Vicente
8yo 11-10 9/1F
Sam Twiston-Davies
Paul Nicholls
2016
8:24.10
Vicente
7yo 11-3 14/1
Sam Twiston-Davies
Paul Nicholls
2015
8:05.70
Wayward Prince
11yo 10-1 25/1
Robert Dunne
Hilary Parrott
2014
8:35.70
Al Co
9yo 10-0 40/1
Jamie Moore
Peter Bowen
2013
8:31.20
Godsmejudge
7yo 11-3 12/1
Wayne Hutchinson
Alan King
2012
8:04.30
Merigo
11yo 10-2 15/2
Timmy Murphy
Andrew Parker
2011
8:02.50
Beshabar
9yo 10-4 15/2
Richard Johnson
Tim Vaughan

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Scottish Grand National have been based:

  • GB: 18 winners with an additional 57 placings from 462 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 12 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 31 runners

Scottish Grand National Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Scottish Grand National over the last 20 renewals is Paul Nicholls who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Vicente (2016) & Vicente (2017). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Scottish Grand National, Sue Smith (0-25), Philip Hobbs (0-18), David Pipe (0-16), Nicky Henderson (0-15), Venetia Williams (0-14) & Jonjo O'Neill (0-11) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Scottish Grand National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Paul Nicholls 34-2-6 -9.00 -10.93
Nigel Twiston-Davies 23-1-9 -10.00 +16.15
Peter Bowen 18-1-2 +23.00 +13.50
Lucinda Russell 17-1-3 -8.00 -0.87
Alan King 15-1-5 -2.00 +0.75
Nicky Richards 9-1-2 +17.00 +11.26
Tim Vaughan 2-1-1 +6.50 +3.69
Sean Curran 1-1-1 +66.00 +41.25
Rebecca Curtis 1-1-1 +33.00 +20.63
Andrew Crook 1-1-1 +7.50 +4.69

Scottish Grand National Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Scottish Grand National over the last 20 renewals is Sam Twiston-Davies who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Vicente (2016) & Vicente (2017).

Here are some of the top Scottish Grand National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Sam Twiston-Davies 11-2-4 +14.00 +12.01
Tom Scudamore 14-1-1 -5.00 -8.00
Paddy Brennan 8-1-2 +5.00 +3.50
Jamie Moore 6-1-2 +35.00 +24.00
Graham Lee 6-1-2 +7.00 +3.63
Robert Dunne 5-1-1 +21.00 +11.63
Sean Quinlan 4-1-2 +22.00 +15.63
Adam Wedge 2-1-1 +32.00 +19.63
P J McDonald 1-1-1 +14.00 +8.75
Aidan Coleman 9-0-2 -9.00 -2.50

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,9,UR,UR,(F,PU),PU,(PU,2),2,4,(5,PU),2,8,PU,PU,(6,PU,PU),6,(5,F),(1,15),PU,6,2

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (73%) - No fallen once this season
  • 20 / 20 (78%) - Made 3-7 starts past year
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Made 3-6 starts past 180 days
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Made 3-22 handicap starts
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Made 10-36 career starts
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Had 7-21 career placings
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Carried 136-161lbs on debut
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Made 2-17 starts on the going
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Never gone further than 4m2½f
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Carried 143-166lbs (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (68%) - No bigger than 16/1 (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Previous won over 2m7½f+

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ayr racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Scottish Grand National. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Scottish Grand National by adding a tip on the race here.

Scottish Grand National Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +121.50 is when runners had a highest class run of Class 1 (G3). The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had recorded 1 season fall, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-135.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Scottish Grand National is Doncaster, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Doncaster last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Aintree and Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 499 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Scottish Grand National:

  • Dom Alco (3 Wins)
  • Pistolet Bleu (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Scottish Grand National despite multiple attempts:

  • Kings Theatre (0 Wins from 11 runners)
  • Milan (0 Wins from 10 runners)
  • Brian Boru (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Be My Native (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Old Vic (0 Wins from 8 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Iris De Balme in 2008 when winning for Sean Curran at odds of 66/1 under the guidance of Charlie Huxley. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 1 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2022 Scottish Grand National. If you are interested in other races at the Ayr racecourse, then why not have a read of our blog for the Ayr Gold Cup.

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