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2021 Ayr Gold Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Sep 10, 12:05pm Last Updated: Sep 17, 5:01pm Horse Racing 2 Comments 7317 Views

2021 Ayr Gold Cup Preview

The Ayr Gold Cup has plenty of history with the inaugural running in 1804, staged over six furlongs and open to three-year-old's and upwards and quickly follows on usually a week or so after the six-furlong Portland Handicap at Doncaster's St Leger meeting. There is a consolation race for those who do not make it into the Gold Cup, the Ayr Silver Cup is run on the day whilst on the day prior there is also the Ayr Bronze Cup for those who don't even make it into the Silver Cup!

Funfair Wane won the Ayr Gold Cup in 2002 and 2004 but to find the last back to back winner we have to go back to Heronslea in 1930/31. The 2018 renewal saw the first dead heat in its history with Baron Bolt and Son Of Rest sharing the spoils, whilst the 2017 renewal was staged at Haydock due to the track at Ayr being waterlogged.

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Ayr Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2017 renewal when Donjuan Triumphant from Andrew Balding who under the guidance of P J McDonald, won in a time of 1:17.10, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Angel Alexander, trained by Tom Dascombe and ridden by Richard Kingscote set the quickest time of 1:09.26 in the 2019 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2019 - Angel Alexander (1:09.26)
  • 2014 - Louis The Pious (1:09.53)
  • 2001 - Continent (1:09.70)

How competitive is the Ayr Gold Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 121%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 145%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Ayr Gold Cup, the over-round has been 136% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £136 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup next time out then you would have back a total of 3 winners. Backing all 21 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -4.50. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2021 Ayr Gold Cup.

Ayr Gold Cup Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Ayr Gold Cup. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Ayr Gold Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Race Notes: Switched to Haydock in 2017, the 2018 renewal was a dead-heat between Son Of Rest & Baron Bolt.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2020
1:11.65
Nahaarr
4yo 9-5 (13 of 24) 7/2F
Tom Marquand
William Haggas
2019
1:09.26
Angel Alexander
3yo 8-13 (24 of 24) 28/1
Richard Kingscote
Tom Dascombe
2018
1:14.77
Son Of Rest
4yo 9-3 (17 of 25) 5/1F
Chris Hayes
J A Stack
2018
1:14.77
Baron Bolt
5yo 8-12 (21 of 25) 28/1
Cameron Noble (5lbs)
Paul Cole
2017
1:17.10
Donjuan Triumphant
4yo 9-10 (4 of 17) 13/2
P J McDonald
Andrew Balding
2016
1:13.12
Brando
4yo 9-10 (8 of 23) 11/1
Tom Eaves
Kevin Ryan
2015
1:10.93
Dont Touch
3yo 9-1 (8 of 25) 6/1F
Tony Hamilton
Richard Fahey
2014
1:09.53
Louis The Pious
6yo 9-4 (19 of 27) 10/1
James Doyle
David O'Meara
2013
1:12.65
Highland Colori
5yo 8-13 (19 of 26) 20/1
Oisin Murphy (5lbs)
Andrew Balding
2012
1:14.13
Captain Ramius
6yo 9-0 (8 of 26) 16/1
Pat Smullen
Kevin Ryan

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Ayr Gold Cup have been based:

  • GB: 20 winners with an additional 56 placings from 491 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 3 placings from 13 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • AUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Ayr Gold Cup Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals is Kevin Ryan who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Advanced (2007), Our Jonathan (2011), Captain Ramius (2012) & Brando (2016). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Ayr Gold Cup are Richard Fahey (2 wins) & Andrew Balding (2 wins). There are two trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Ayr Gold Cup, David Barron has sent a total of 22 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst Tim Easterby has sent out 14 without a winner.

Here are the Ayr Gold Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2021 renewal, those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Kevin Ryan 47-4-7 +15.00 +3.77
Richard Fahey 50-2-11 -26.00 -12.74
Andrew Balding 9-2-2 +19.50 +9.56
David O'Meara 19-1-4 -8.00 -4.74
Tom Dascombe 4-1-1 +25.00 +14.50
David Barron 22-0-2 -22.00 -15.87
Tim Easterby 14-0-1 -14.00 -12.00
Michael Dods 8-0-2 -8.00 -3.37
John Quinn 6-0-2 -6.00 -0.75
Keith Dalgleish 6-0-1 -6.00 -3.00
Michael Appleby 4-0-1 -4.00 +2.75
Richard Hannon 3-0-1 -3.00 +1.63
Charles Hills 3-0-0 -3.00 -3.00
Ed Walker 2-0-0 -2.00 -2.00
Stuart Williams 2-0-0 -2.00 -2.00
Paul Midgley 1-0-0 -1.00 -1.00
Phillip Makin 1-0-0 -1.00 -1.00

Ayr Gold Cup Jockey Statistics

There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Ayr Gold Cup, David Allan has had a total of 12 rides to the race without recording any wins.

Here are the Ayr Gold Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2021 renewal, those not listed have not had a ride. (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Paul Hanagan 15-1-3 +2.00 +0.75
Tom Eaves 14-1-2 -2.00 -3.12
Richard Kingscote 5-1-1 +24.00 +13.50
David Allan 12-0-1 -12.00 -3.25
Paul Mulrennan 9-0-0 -9.00 -9.00
Joe Fanning 7-0-1 -7.00 -2.37
Graham Lee 6-0-2 -6.00 -3.50
Kevin Stott 4-0-0 -4.00 -4.00
Connor Beasley 4-0-0 -4.00 -4.00
Callum Rodriguez 2-0-2 -2.00 +2.63
Jason Hart 2-0-1 -2.00 -0.50
Billy Garritty 1-0-1 -1.00 +0.75
Clifford Lee 1-0-0 -1.00 -1.00
Megan Nicholls 1-0-0 -1.00 -1.00
Rowan Scott 1-0-0 -1.00 -1.00

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,23,7,6,(4,8),14,13,19,13,4,5,2,3,23,3,1,2,12,1,17,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 21 / 21 (73%) - Debut was over 6f+
  • 21 / 21 (80%) - No bigger than 33/1
  • 21 / 21 (80%) - Not run in Listed or G3 (LTO)
  • 21 / 21 (81%) - No more than 2 wins in class
  • 21 / 21 (83%) - No older than a 6yo
  • 21 / 21 (87%) - Weight vs Race Average > -5lbs
  • 21 / 21 (89%) - Avoid Fillies, Mares & Horses
  • 21 / 21 (90%) - No more than 6 Hcp wins
  • 21 / 21 (91%) - Debut was not in Scotland
  • 20 / 21 (78%) - 2-6 Career wins on turf
  • 20 / 21 (84%) - Last win not 2 starts ago
  • 20 / 21 (90%) - Never gone further than 8.5f
  • 19 / 21 (69%) - 10-35 Starts on turf
  • 19 / 21 (71%) - Never ran off bigger than 50/1

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ayr racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup by adding a tip on the race here.

Ayr Gold Cup Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +25.00 is when runners had 1 career wins in the class. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran over 5f on debut, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-133.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2020: Winner in 13 (9,11,3) [24 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 24 (18,9,13) [24 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 17 (3,16) [25 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 4 (11,2,14) [17 Runners]
  • 2016: Winner in 8 (6,7,11) [23 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Doncaster, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Doncaster last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 21 winners from a total of 472 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 34 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Ayr Gold Cup:

  • Pivotal (3 Wins)
  • Dark Angel (2 Wins)
  • Kheleyf (2 Wins)
  • Unfuwain (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Ayr Gold Cup despite multiple attempts:

  • Oasis Dream (0 Wins from 16 runners)
  • Acclamation (0 Wins from 14 runners)
  • Indian Ridge (0 Wins from 13 runners)
  • Clodovil (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Monsieur Bond (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Namid (0 Wins from 7 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Funfair Wane in 2004 when winning for David Nicholls at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of Paul Doe. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 3 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2021 Ayr Gold Cup why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today.

Ayr Gold Cup Trend Shortlist

Ayr will host the 2021 renewal of the Ayr Gold Cup that will be run at 3:40 pm Saturday 18th September 2021 and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):

  • 14/14 Bielsa (10/1 at time of posting)
    • Kevin Ryan (47-4-7 +15.00 / +3.77)
    • Kevin Stott (4-0-0 -4.00 / -4.00)
  • 14/14 Hey Jonesy (33/1 at time of posting)
    • Kevin Ryan (47-4-7 +15.00 / +3.77)
    • Megan Nicholls (1-0-0 -1.00 / -1.00)
  • 14/14 Lexington Dash (33/1 at time of posting)
    • Richard Hannon (3-0-1 -3.00 / +1.63)
    • Joe Fanning (7-0-1 -7.00 / -2.37)

Others: Edraak (13/14), Popmaster (13/14), Brad The Brief (13/14), Count Dorsay (13/14), Just Frank (13/14), Motagally (13/14), Pendleton (13/14), Snazzy Jazzy (13/14), Great Ambassador (12/14), Sunday Sovereign (12/14), Above (11/14), Volatile Analyst (11/14), Commanche Falls (11/14), Fivethousandtoone (11/14), Ostilio (11/14), Lahore (11/14), Chiefofchiefs (10/14), Mr Wagyu (10/14), Venturous (10/14), Gulliver (9/14), Mr Lupton (8/14), Summerghand (7/14).

*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at time of posting (2:39 pm Thursday 16th September 2021)

Commanche Falls won the Stewards Cup last time out and a total of 2 previous winners of that race from a total of 19 runners went on to win next time out, backing them all would have returned an LSP of -5.00.

Other Principal races at Ayr racecourse

Here are some other notable races at Ayr racecourse for throughout the racing season which you may be interested in.

Races in April

Races in September

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