Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 John Francome Novices Chase Preview
Registered as the John Francome Novices Chase, this Grade 2 chase is run at Newbury in November of each year, it has also been previously known as the Hopeful Chase and more recently the Berkshire Novices Chase, it is contested over just shy of two miles and four furlongs during which a total of sixteen fences will be faced.
The race has been won by some runners who went on to have successful chasing careers with the likes of Denman, Bobs Worth, Dynaste, Coneygree & Clan des Obeaux all winning this race early in their chasing careers.
John Francome Novices Chase Information:
- John Francome Novices Chase Past Winners
- John Francome Novices Chase Trainer Statistics
- John Francome Novices Chase Jockey Statistics
To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Newbury tips on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newbury Racecourse section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the John Francome Novices Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2005 when the race had an over-round of 106%. The race in 2015 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 115%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the John Francome Novices Chase, the over-round has been 109%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £109 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 John Francome Novices Chase Trends, see which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal, we also have a section that looks at the John Francome Novices Chase Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run John Francome Novices Chase over the last 20 renewals:
- Caribean Boy (4:50.60) in 2020
- Clan Des Obeaux (4:51.20) in 2016
- Champ (4:57.40) in 2019
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the John Francome Novices Chase next time out then you would have backed a total of 6 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -0.18. Whilst we wait for the 2025 John Francome Novices Chase remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Caribean Boy, trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by Daryl Jacob who set the fastest winning time in the John Francome Novices Chase, the runner won the race in a time of 4:50.60 when winning the race in 2020. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Paul Nicholls and jockey Sam Thomas with Denman who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 5:19.30 in the 2006 renewal.
John Francome Novices Chase Past Winners
Here are the John Francome Novices Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the John Francome Novices Chase are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 5:02.10 | The Jukebox Man (IRE) 6yo 11-4 9/4F | Ben Jones Ben Pauling (GB) |
| 2023 4:58.41 | Hermes Allen (FR) 6yo 11-4 13/8F | Harry Cobden Paul Nicholls (GB) |
| 2022 4:58.20 | Sebastopol (IRE) 8yo 11-9 22/1 | Stan Sheppard Tom Lacey (GB) |
| 2021 4:59.50 | Nassalam (FR) 4yo 10-7 2/1F | Jamie Moore Gary Moore (GB) |
| 2020 4:50.60 | Caribean Boy (FR) 6yo 11-1 100/30 | Daryl Jacob Nicky Henderson (GB) |
| 2019 4:57.40 | Champ (IRE) 7yo 11-1 4/5F | Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson (GB) |
| 2018 4:57.60 | La Bague Au Roi (FR) 7yo 10-8 5/4F | Richard Johnson Warren Greatrex (GB) |
| 2017 4:57.90 | Willoughby Court (IRE) 6yo 11-1 15/8 | Nico de Boinville Ben Pauling (GB) |
| 2016 4:51.20 | Clan Des Obeaux (FR) 4yo 10-7 5/2 | Sean Bowen Paul Nicholls (GB) |
| 2015 5:09.60 | Three Musketeers (IRE) 5yo 11-1 7/2 | Harry Skelton Dan Skelton (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the John Francome Novices Chase have been based:
- GB: 20 winners with an additional 10 placings from 96 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners
John Francome Novices Chase Trainer Statistics
There are two leading trainers in the John Francome Novices Chase over the last 20 renewals with both Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson who have both won the race five times. Paul Nicholls winners have been with Albuhera (2005), Denman (2006), Wonderful Charm (2013), Clan Des Obeaux (2016) and Hermes Allen (2023). Nicky Henderson winners have been with The Market Man (2008), Punchestowns (2009), Bobs Worth (2011), Champ (2019) and Caribean Boy (2020). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the John Francome Novices Chase is Ben Pauling (2 wins).
Here are some of the top John Francome Novices Chase trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nicholls | 17-5-6 | -4.71 | -3.29 |
| Nicky Henderson | 11-5-6 | +1.60 | -3.85 |
| Ben Pauling | 2-2-2 | +4.13 | +2.59 |
| Dan Skelton | 4-1-2 | +0.50 | +1.57 |
| David Pipe | 4-1-2 | -2.56 | -0.72 |
| Gary Moore | 3-1-1 | +0.00 | -2.00 |
| Tom Lacey | 2-1-1 | +21.00 | +0.00 |
| Warren Greatrex | 2-1-1 | +0.25 | -1.00 |
| Paul Webber | 1-1-1 | +10.00 | +6.25 |
| Mark Bradstock | 1-1-1 | +2.00 | +1.25 |
John Francome Novices Chase Jockey Statistics
There are two leading jockeys in the John Francome Novices Chase over the last 20 renewals with both Daryl Jacob and Nico de Boinville who have both won the race two times. Daryl Jacob winners have been with Wonderful Charm (2013) and Caribean Boy (2020). Nico de Boinville winners have been with Coneygree (2014) and Willoughby Court (2017).
Here are some of the top John Francome Novices Chase jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daryl Jacob | 4-2-2 | +2.06 | -2.00 |
| Nico de Boinville | 2-2-2 | +3.88 | +2.43 |
| Harry Cobden | 7-1-1 | -4.37 | -1.98 |
| Harry Skelton | 4-1-2 | +0.50 | +1.57 |
| Stan Sheppard | 2-1-1 | +21.00 | +0.00 |
| Sean Bowen | 2-1-1 | +1.50 | +0.56 |
| Ben Jones | 1-1-1 | +2.25 | +1.41 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -2.00 |
| Tom Cannon | 2-0-1 | -2.00 | -0.75 |
| James Bowen | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -1.00 |
2025 John Francome Novices Chase Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, F, 1, 1, 1, UR, 2, 5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, (1, 4)
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (81%) - Within the first 4 of the market
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Held an OR of 132+ (Career)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Highest Run is not G3/Cl2-4
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Not in a G3/LST/Cl4 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Not on HY/GF/STD-SLW/STD (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - In a field of 4 - 18 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Highest Placed is not Cl2/Cl4
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Won within last 4 starts
- 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 22/1
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Beaten no more -17½l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Achieved an RPR of 127+ (Non-Hcps)
- 19 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 7/1 (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (84%) - Carried 152 - 164lbs (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (86%) - No bigger than 14/1 (Career Win)
- 19 / 20 (86%) - Placed within last 2 starts
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newbury racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the John Francome Novices Chase. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the John Francome Novices Chase by adding a tip on the race here.
John Francome Novices Chase Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +7.11 is when runners had an IRE bred dam.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had recorded 2 career non-finishes, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-13.
The course which has produced the most winners of the John Francome Novices Chase is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 7 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 94 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 4 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the John Francome Novices Chase:
- Karinga Bay (2 Wins)
- Poliglote (2 Wins)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Sebastopol in 2022, winning for Tom Lacey at odds of 22/1 under the guidance of Stan Sheppard. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 10 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2025 John Francome Novices Chase head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters today.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this John Francome Novices Chase Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
James Banting
Tipster Competition Assistant
Andy Powell
Content Editor
