Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 UAE Derby Preview
Established in 2000, the Group 2 UAE Derby is scheduled to take place in March of each year during the Dubai World Cup Night at the Meydan racecourse, the race is run over a trip of one mile, one and a half furlongs on the dirt and is open to runners aged 3yo+ (southern hemisphere) and 4yo+ (northern hemisphere).
UAE Derby Information:
To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Meydan tips on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Races Covered at Dubai World Cup Night section for links to these.
How competitive is the UAE Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2016 when the race had an over-round of 112%. The race in 2017 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 125%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the UAE Derby, the over-round has been 121%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £121 which is bet.
UAE Derby Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the UAE Derby next time out then you would have backed a total of 0 winners. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -9.00. Whilst we wait for the 2025 UAE Derby remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 10 renewals, it was the A P O'Brien trained Mendelssohn ridden by Ryan Moore who set the fastest winning time in the UAE Derby, the runner won the race in a time of 1:55.18 was set when winning the race in 2018. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Koichi Shintani and jockey Damian Lane with Crown Pride who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 1:59.76 in the 2022 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run UAE Derby over the last 10 renewals:
- Mendelssohn (1:55.18) in 2018
- Derma Sotogake (1:55.81) in 2023
- Rebels Romance (1:56.28) in 2021
UAE Derby Past Winners
Here are the UAE Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the UAE Derby as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 1:57.89 | Forever Young (JPN) 3yo 8-9 (11 of 11) 8/11F | Ryusei Sakai Yoshito Yahagi (JPN) |
| 2023 1:55.81 | Derma Sotogake (JPN) 3yo 8-9 (1 of 13) 9/2 | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Hidetaka Otonashi (JPN) |
| 2022 1:59.76 | Crown Pride (JPN) 3yo 8-9 (10 of 16) 12/1 | Damian Lane Koichi Shintani (JPN) |
| 2021 1:56.28 | Rebels Romance (IRE) 3yo 8-9 (11 of 14) 8/1 | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2019 1:58.41 | Plus Que Parfait (USA) 3yo 9-0 (4 of 14) 25/1 | Jose L Ortiz Brendan P Walsh (USA) |
| 2018 1:55.18 | Mendelssohn (USA) 3yo 9-0 (4 of 9) 7/4 | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2017 1:57.76 | Thunder Snow (IRE) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 16) 11/4F | Christophe Soumillon Saeed bin Suroor (GB) |
| 2016 1:58.41 | Lani (USA) 3yo 8-9 (3 of 7) 12/1 | Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga (JPN) |
| 2015 1:58.35 | Mubtaahij (IRE) 3yo 8-9 (1 of 10) 9/4F | Christophe Soumillon M F De Kock (SAF) |
| 2014 1:57.92 | Toast Of New York (USA) 3yo 8-9 (8 of 12) 11/1 | Jamie Spencer Jamie Osborne (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the UAE Derby have been based:
- JPN: 4 winners with an additional 4 placings from 26 runners
- GB: 3 winners with an additional 4 placings from 23 runners
- USA: 1 winner with an additional 4 placings from 17 runners
- IRE: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 11 runners
- SAF: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 6 placings from 28 runners
- BRZ: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- BHR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners
- URU: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- KSA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- RUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
UAE Derby Trainer Statistics
Here are some of the top UAE Derby trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| A P O'Brien | 11-1-1 | -8.25 | -8.95 |
| Saeed bin Suroor | 8-1-4 | -4.25 | -1.62 |
| Charlie Appleby | 7-1-1 | +2.00 | -1.20 |
| M F De Kock | 4-1-1 | -0.75 | -1.65 |
| Mikio Matsunaga | 2-1-1 | +11.00 | +6.50 |
| Koichi Shintani | 2-1-1 | +11.00 | +5.00 |
| Yoshito Yahagi | 2-1-2 | -0.27 | +2.44 |
| Brendan P Walsh | 1-1-1 | +25.00 | +15.00 |
| Jamie Osborne | 1-1-1 | +11.00 | +6.60 |
| Hidetaka Otonashi | 1-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.70 |
UAE Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the UAE Derby over the last 10 renewals is Christophe Soumillon who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Mubtaahij (2015) and Thunder Snow (2017).
Here are some of the top UAE Derby jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe Soumillon | 4-2-2 | +3.00 | +0.73 |
| William Buick | 8-1-1 | +1.00 | -2.20 |
| Ryan Moore | 8-1-2 | -5.25 | -5.23 |
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire | 5-1-2 | +0.50 | -0.80 |
| Yutaka Take | 2-1-1 | +11.00 | +6.50 |
| Jamie Spencer | 2-1-1 | +10.00 | +5.60 |
| Ryusei Sakai | 2-1-2 | -0.27 | +2.44 |
| Jose L Ortiz | 1-1-1 | +25.00 | +15.00 |
| Damian Lane | 1-1-1 | +12.00 | +6.00 |
| Mickael Barzalona | 6-0-3 | -6.00 | -1.55 |
2025 UAE Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): (4, 6), (1, 3), 2, 1, 4, 13, (2, 6, 14), (11, 16), 10, 1
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 10 / 10 (58%) - In a field of 9 - 15 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (58%) - No bigger than 32/5 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (68%) - Achieved an RPR of 100+ (Last 3)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Highest Placed is not LST/Cl3
- 10 / 10 (75%) - Is not ARG/AUS/BRZ/CAN/FR/GB/KSA/URU bred
- 10 / 10 (75%) - Within the first 9 of the market
- 10 / 10 (75%) - No bigger than 25/1
- 10 / 10 (80%) - In a field of 6 - 14 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (82%) - Furthest Placed 1m - 1m1½f
- 10 / 10 (84%) - Furthest ran 1m - 1m1½f
- 10 / 10 (86%) - Won within last 3 starts
- 10 / 10 (87%) - Made 3 - 7 starts (Career)
- 10 / 10 (87%) - Had 2 - 5 placings (Career)
- 10 / 10 (87%) - Had 2 - 5 placings (1 Year)
- 10 / 10 (88%) - Carried no more than 126lbs
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Meydan racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the UAE Derby. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles like How to Find Winners - 101 Tips to Choose A Winning Horse Racing Bet.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the UAE Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
UAE Derby Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +36.23 is when runners had 1 career place on the going. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career win in Non-Handicap races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-36.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 11 (9,8) [11 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 1 (8,12) [13 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 10 (8,3) [16 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 11 (6,13) [14 Runners]
- 2019: Winner in 4 (8,14) [14 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the UAE Derby is Janadriyah, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Janadriyah last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 110 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 12 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the UAE Derby, that stallion Dubawi has produced 2 winners (2021,2015).
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Plus Que Parfait in 2019, winning for Brendan P Walsh at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Jose L Ortiz. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Races Covered at Dubai World Cup Night
Remember to head over to the Meydan predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters are supporting in the UAE Derby and don't forget we also cover the following races at Dubai World Cup Night.
| Dubai World Cup Night Races | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Al Quoz Sprint | California Spangle (IRE) 6yo - 6/1 | A S Cruz Brenton Avdulla |
| Dubai Gold Cup | Tower Of London (IRE) 4yo - 9/4 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Dubai Golden Shaheen | Tuz (USA) 7yo - 10/1 | B Seemar Tadhg O'Shea |
| Dubai Sheema Classic | Rebels Romance (IRE) 6yo - 25/1 | Charlie Appleby William Buick |
| Dubai Turf | Facteur Cheval (IRE) 5yo - 20/1 | J Reynier Maxime Guyon |
| Dubai World Cup | Laurel River (USA) 6yo - 17/2 | B Seemar Tadhg O'Shea |
| Godolphin Mile | Two Rivers Over (USA) 4yo - 33/1 | Doug O'Neill Edwin A Maldonado |
| UAE Derby | Forever Young (JPN) 3yo - 8/11 | Yoshito Yahagi Ryusei Sakai |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this UAE Derby Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
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