You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 UAE Derby Preview
Established in 2000, the Group 2 UAE Derby is scheduled to take place in March of each year during the Dubai World Cup Night at the Meydan racecourse. The race is run over a trip of one mile, one and a half furlongs on the dirt and is open to runners aged 3yo+ (southern hemisphere) and 4yo+ (northern hemisphere).
UAE Derby Information:
If you are interested in other predictions at Meydan, then head over to the Meydan tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Races Covered at Dubai World Cup Night section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the UAE Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2016, when the race had an over-round of 112%. The race in 2012 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 128%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the UAE Derby, the over-round has been 121%, which means the bookie expects to pay out ÂŁ100 for every ÂŁ121 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 UAE Derby Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the UAE Derby Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run UAE Derby races over the last 20 renewals:
- Discreet Cat (1:48.59) in 2006
- Asiatic Boy (1:48.82) in 2007
- Honour Devil (1:49.60) in 2008
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the UAE Derby next time out, then you would have backed a total of 1 winner. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -17.60. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2027 UAE Derby.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Discreet Cat, trained by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by Frankie Dettori, who set the fastest winning time in the UAE Derby. That runner won the race in a time of 1:48.59 in 2006. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer A P O'Brien and jockey Ryan Moore with Helene Super Star who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 2:02.05 in the 2013 renewal.
UAE Derby Past Winners
Here are the UAE Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the UAE Derby are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 1:59.19 | Wonder Dean (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 11) 5/1 | Cristian Demuro Daisuke Takayanagi (JPN) |
| 2025 1:59.13 | Admire Daytona (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (3 of 9) 11/1 | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Yukihiro Kato (JPN) |
| 2024 1:57.89 | Forever Young (JPN) 3yo 8-9 (11 of 11) 8/11F | Ryusei Sakai Yoshito Yahagi (JPN) |
| 2023 1:55.81 | Derma Sotogake (JPN) 3yo 8-9 (1 of 13) 9/2 | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Hidetaka Otonashi (JPN) |
| 2022 1:59.76 | Crown Pride (JPN) 3yo 8-9 (10 of 16) 12/1 | Damian Lane Koichi Shintani (JPN) |
| 2021 1:56.28 | Rebels Romance (IRE) 3yo 8-9 (11 of 14) 8/1 | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2019 1:58.41 | Plus Que Parfait (USA) 3yo 9-0 (4 of 14) 25/1 | Jose L Ortiz Brendan P Walsh (USA) |
| 2018 1:55.18 | Mendelssohn (USA) 3yo 9-0 (4 of 9) 7/4 | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2017 1:57.76 | Thunder Snow (IRE) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 16) 11/4F | Christophe Soumillon Saeed bin Suroor (GB) |
| 2016 1:58.41 | Lani (USA) 3yo 8-9 (3 of 7) 12/1 | Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga (JPN) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the UAE Derby have been based:
- GB: 6 winners with an additional 11 placings from 66 runners
- JPN: 6 winners with an additional 7 placings from 39 runners
- SAF: 4 winners with an additional 3 placings from 22 runners
- IRE: 3 winners with an additional 3 placings from 17 runners
- USA: 1 winner with an additional 4 placings from 24 runners
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 8 placings from 40 runners
- KSA: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 11 runners
- BRZ: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 8 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 6 runners
- BHR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners
- URU: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- NOR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- AUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- SIN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- RUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- ARG: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
2026 UAE Derby Replay
UAE Derby Trainer Statistics
There are two leading trainers in the UAE Derby over the last 20 renewals, with both Saeed bin Suroor and M F De Kock, who have both won the race four times. Saeed bin Suroor winners have been with Discreet Cat (2006), Regal Ransom (2009), Khawlah (2011) and Thunder Snow (2017). M F De Kock winners have been with Asiatic Boy (2007), Honour Devil (2008), Musir (2010) and Mubtaahij (2015). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the UAE Derby is A P O'Brien (3 wins).
Here are some of the top UAE Derby trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saeed bin Suroor | 25-4-12 | +3.75 | +7.61 |
| M F De Kock | 18-4-7 | -7.58 | -6.74 |
| A P O'Brien | 16-3-5 | +3.25 | -0.88 |
| Charlie Appleby | 8-1-1 | +1.00 | -2.20 |
| Mikio Matsunaga | 3-1-1 | +10.00 | +5.50 |
| Jamie Osborne | 3-1-2 | +9.00 | +5.40 |
| Yoshito Yahagi | 3-1-2 | -1.27 | +1.44 |
| Koichi Shintani | 2-1-1 | +11.00 | +5.00 |
| Yukihiro Kato | 2-1-1 | +10.00 | +5.60 |
| Daisuke Takayanagi | 2-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.00 |
UAE Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the UAE Derby over the last 20 renewals is Christophe Soumillon, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Musir (2010), Mubtaahij (2015) and Thunder Snow (2017). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the UAE Derby are Ryan Moore (2 wins) and Christophe-Patrice Lemaire (2 wins).
Here are some of the top UAE Derby jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe Soumillon | 8-3-4 | +1.38 | -0.49 |
| Ryan Moore | 13-2-5 | -1.75 | -2.36 |
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire | 8-2-3 | +9.50 | +3.80 |
| Frankie Dettori | 12-1-4 | -9.00 | -6.84 |
| William Buick | 11-1-1 | -2.00 | -5.20 |
| Mickael Barzalona | 10-1-5 | -5.00 | -1.40 |
| Yutaka Take | 5-1-2 | +8.00 | +5.60 |
| Jamie Spencer | 4-1-1 | +8.00 | +3.60 |
| Colm O'Donoghue | 3-1-1 | +5.00 | +2.20 |
| Cristian Demuro | 3-1-2 | +3.00 | +3.10 |
2027 UAE Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 6, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 3, (4, 6), (1, 3), 2, 1, 4, 13, (2, 6, 14), (11, 16), 10, 1, (2, 9), 2
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 20 / 20 (66%) - Achieved an RPR of 100+ (Last 3)
- 20 / 20 (74%) - No bigger than 25/1
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Highest Placed is not LST/Cl3-4
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Within the first 9 of the market
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Is not BRZ/CAN/CHI/FR/GB/KSA/NZ/PER/SAF/URU bred
- 20 / 20 (79%) - In a field of 6 - 14 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Furthest ran 1m - 1m1½f
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Not on SFT/GD/GF/SLW/STD-SLW (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Had 2 - 5 placings (Career)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Not on HY/SFT/GS/SLW/STD-FS (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 20/1 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Ran in 2 - 7 races (Career)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Furthest Placed 7f - 1m1½f
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Carried 120 - 134lbs (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Held an OR of 99+
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Meydan racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the UAE Derby. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over ÂŁ6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the UAE Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
UAE Derby Trend Analysis
â The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +18.75, is when runners ran in a Class 2 on debut.
â The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a highest class placed of Class 1 (L), when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-53.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 5 (2,9) [11 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 3 (6,1) [9 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 11 (9,8) [11 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 1 (8,12) [13 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 10 (8,3) [16 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the UAE Derby are Janadriyah, Meydan and Nad Al Sheba; there have been a total of 4 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 214 runners, while female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 30 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the UAE Derby:
- Dubawi (2 Wins)
- Scat Daddy (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the UAE Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Street Cry (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Hard Spun (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Plus Que Parfait in 2019, winning for Brendan P Walsh at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Jose L Ortiz. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 7 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2027 UAE Derby, why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today? All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Route to the UAE Derby
Many trainers target races as preparation for the UAE Derby. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Wonder Dean Janadriyah - 4th of 14 (12/1) | Saudi Derby Presented by ZOOD Realty |
| 2025 - Admire Daytona Tokyo - 4th of 10 (91/10) | Hyacinth Stakes |
| 2024 - Forever Young Janadriyah - 1st of 12 (8/13) | Boutique Group Saudi Derby |
| 2023 - Derma Sotogake Janadriyah - 3rd of 13 (9/2) | Saudi Derby presented by Boutique Group |
| 2022 - Crown Pride Tokyo - 6th of 14 (7/2) | Hyacinth Stakes |
| 2021 - Rebels Romance Janadriyah - 4th of 12 (9/4) | Saudi Derby sponsored by Al Rahji Bank |
| 2019 - Plus Que Parfait Fair Grounds - 13th of 14 (37/5) | Risen Star Stakes Presented By Lamarque Ford |
| 2018 - Mendelssohn Dundalk (AW) - 1st of 6 (1/1) | 32Red Patton Stakes |
| 2017 - Thunder Snow Meydan - 1st of 9 (6/4) | UAE 2000 Guineas Sponsored By District One Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City |
| 2016 - Lani Tokyo - 5th of 14 (13/5) | Hyacinth Stakes |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this UAE Derby Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Races Covered at Dubai World Cup Night
Remember to head over to the Meydan predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters are supporting in the UAE Derby and don't forget we also cover the following races at Dubai World Cup Night.
| Dubai World Cup Night Races | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Al Quoz Sprint | Native Approach (GB) 5yo - 28/1 | A bin Harmash Connor Beasley |
| Dubai Gold Cup | Fairy Glen (FR) 5yo - 20/1 | Simon & Ed Crisford Mickael Barzalona |
| Dubai Golden Shaheen | Dark Saffron (USA) 4yo - 12/1 | A bin Harmash Connor Beasley |
| Dubai Sheema Classic | Calandagan (IRE) 5yo - 1/4 | F-H Graffard Mickael Barzalona |
| Dubai Turf | Ombudsman (IRE) 5yo - 2/5 | John & Thady Gosden William Buick |
| Dubai World Cup | Magnitude (USA) 4yo - 15/2 | Steven Asmussen Jose L Ortiz |
| Godolphin Mile | Banishing (USA) 6yo - 6/1 | David Jacobson Silvestre De Sousa |
| UAE Derby | Wonder Dean (JPN) 3yo - 5/1 | Daisuke Takayanagi Cristian Demuro |
