Horse Racing Trainers To Follow In November

November Trainers (NH)

We roll on to November and the NH season proper, the NH section of the blog made a healthy profit last November especially if you include the Irish trainer so all of them are back in some guise.  With big meetings at Cheltenham, Newbury and Punchestown to come its an exciting month ahead and the following trainers should make it more exciting.

 

NH (GB)

 

FERGAL O'BRIEN (ALL)

The star of last November where he showed a +£31.70 LSP, 16 winners last November was his best haul in recent years and the LSP was more than trebled using Early Prices.

• 2013 10/46 22% +£44.63
• 2014 6/30 20% +£12.88
• 2015 1/31 3% (£26.50)
• 2016 11/42 26% +£28.38
• 2017 12/43 28% +£31.05
• 2018 9/50 18% +£8.65
• 2019 16/56 29% +£9.75

Hasn't done as well as we hoped in October in terms of winners but half his runners have finished in the first three.

 

PHILIP HOBBS (HURDLERS)

Somerset trainer who gave us a cracking return last November with his hurdlers, +£11 LSP which again trebled the the official SP figures.

• 2015     13/48     27%     +£0.23
• 2016      9/51      18%    (£17.47)
• 2017      7/46      15%    +£21.75
• 2018     11/51     22%    +£57.48
• 2019     10/45     22%     +£3.13

At the time of writing he'd had 4 winners from his last 7 runners which bodes well for the month ahead.

 

PAUL NICHOLLS (CHASERS)

Blog regular, usually gets his Chasers going early as he did last year when providing us with a +£6.80 LSP.

• 2014 15/45 33% +£17.21
• 2015 11/46 24% +£4.50
• 2016 11/41 27% +£9.38
• 2017 11/46 24% (£10.95)
• 2018  9/46 20%  (£ 2.22)
• 2019  7/35 20%  +£1.00

With 20 of his 35 chase runners finishing in the first three last November, hopefully we can get back to double figure winners this month.

 

HARRY FRY (ALL)

Dorset trainer, another back from last year where he gave a (£10.50) LSL.  Looking at his his overall figures that could easily be a blip so we'll give him another chance.

• 2013 8/24 33% +£ 6.11
• 2014 10/32 31% (£ 7.32)
• 2015 12/45 27% +£ 5.24
• 2016 10/41 24% +£ 2.79
• 2017 13/40 33% +£3.51
• 2018 12/45 27% +£2.28
• 2019  4/31  13% (£11.50)

October figures are decent but another poor month and he'll be gone next November.

 

TOM LACEY (NON CHASE) 

Another loser from last November but on closer inspection we probably should have been omitting his Chase runners.

• 2016     4/10     40%     +£22.50
• 2017     5/23     22%     +£10.63
• 2018     6/20     30%     +£4.50
• 2019     4/26     15%     (£10.02)

A little bit like Fry in that another poor month and he won't be back next year.

 

There were plenty of others that could have gone in, I will be following all Newland, Jefferson and Noel Willams runners and Emma Lavelle's non bumper horses and they will be included in the figures.

 

 

NH (IRELAND)

 

WILLIE MULLINS (ALL)

No surprises with this inclusion, this is the month when the big guns start to appear.  He gave £7.50 LSP last year so a must to return.

• 2011 23/55 42% +£13.63
• 2012 18/47 38% (£ 1.08)
• 2013 26/74 35% (£18.72)
• 2014 34/80 43% (£ 4.23)
• 2015 26/59 44% +£ 2.94
• 2016 20/46 43% +£ 7.74
• 2017 18/47 38% (£ 7.89)
• 2018 13/54 24% (£ 4.71)
• 2019 31/101 31% (£5.15)

It's an unbelievable strike rate over a 9 year period and the LSL at SP isn't an issue, last year we made an extra 12 points profit from 31 winners using early prices and the is less than you would expect the year prior we made an extra 15 points from just 13 winners.

 

November Trainers (AW)

The All Weather takes over from the Turf this month and the AW specialists come to the fore.  Last year the AW blog made a loss but that was largely down to the usually reliable Gosden and Varian, we'll just stick with the three profit makers from last year.

 

WILLIE HAGGAS (ALL)

Back from giving a small profit last year, Newmarket trainer Willie Haggas.

• 2015     5/30     17%     (£13.02)
• 2016     5/18     28%     +£2.17
• 2017     9/24     38%     +£1.17
• 2018     9/27     33%     +£0.54
• 2019     8/36     22%      +£2.83

Solid stuff over the past four years and plenty of EP gains likely with close to double figure winners in each of the last three years.

 

HUGO PALMER (3YO'S)

Newmarket trainer who had registered a nice strike rate with his 3yo's in years 2016-18, a little disappointing last year in terms of strike rate and number of runners.

• 2015     0/2     0%      (£2.00)
• 2016     1/3     33%    +£3.00
• 2017     5/11   45%    +£4.51
• 2018     5/11   45%    +£8.63
• 2019     1/6     17%     +£11.00

Just the one winner last last but it was 16's, I'd like to see a bit more action this month but profit is profit.

 

HEATHER MAIN (ALL)

Last up is last years blog virgin, whilst she didn't post wonderful figures a 20/1 winner ensured she gave a profit.

• 2015     0/2     0%     (£2.00)
• 2016     1/3    33%   +£2.50
• 2017     3/8    38%   +£31.00
• 2018     2/11  18%   +£22.33
• 2019     2/13  15%   +£ 2.25

We must have beat the SP by miles last year as our own figures showed a +£12.75 LSP so we had to include.

 

Please leave any comments below, as always good luck!

 

Results

1st - Decent start with plenty of winners, all 9/4 or less so dont get too excited.     5/9     +£4.08

2nd - Disappointing day after a decent start yesterday, just one winner.     1/15     (£12.75)

3rd - Another poor day just three short onces.     3/16     (£9.66)

4th - All but one won or placed but losing day.     1/5     (£1.50)

5th - Plenty of placed again but only a shorty over the line.     1/10     (£7.25)

6th - It's hard to see where the next winning day is coming from.     1/5     (£2.38)

7th - At last something to shout about, old Harry won at 18's and Modus at 15/2, both had r4's though.     2/20     +£4.42

8th - Another winning day with winners for O'Brien, Mullins, Nicholls and Lacey.     4/19     +£7.25

9th - Poor day, just a FOB winner.     1/14     (£10.75)

10th - Winners for Nicholls, FOB and Lavelle.     3/13     (£1.70)

11th - Shocking day, seconds at 12s and 20s though.     1/12     (£10.00)

12th - Loads of winners today and i've included the Williams winner that didn't weigh in for two reasons, I got paid out on it and for next year it really should be classed as a winner.

7/19     +£21.88

13th - Three winners but not enough for a profit.     3/17     (£6.88)

14th - Wedding Anniversary, bad day in more ways than one especially the Fry DH that defo won.     3/27     (£19.05)

15th - If I thought yesterday was bad, five seconds today.     2/12     (£4.75)

16th - Another losing day.     2/8     (£2.88)

17th - Quiet day, small loss.     1/5     (£1.50)

18th - Winning day, Noel Williams steamer, missed the early big big prices but nice winner all the sams.     2/11     +£2.25

19th - Brilliant day, loads of winners, no massive prices but still a nice profit.     8/28     +£11.92

20th - Plenty of winners today but nothing bigger that 13/8 so we gave all yesterdays profit back.     5/23     (£12.80)

21st - Five winners again but loads of runners, big loss.     5/34     (£11.15)

22nd - Plenty of winners again but the prices are awful.     6/18     (£0.09)

23rd - Small loss today.     3/11     (£3.58)

24th - Same story, strike rate is fine, prices aren't.     3/12     (£2.75)

25th - Awful day just a 3's winner.     1/12     (£8.00)

26th - Another losing day, second at 50's didn't help.     4/15     (£3.65)

27th - You know the drill.     2/14     (£7.18)

28th - Big priced seconds, short priced winners.     4/19     (£10.06)

29th - At last a couple of big priced winners 20's and 10's, too late to save the month/year but welcome all the same.     2/18     +£14.00

30th - A final day that typified the month, two odds on winners and seconds at 9's 5's and 2's.     2/6     (£1.90)

 

November Total

87/447   19%   (£86.43)

 

2020 Total

382/2058   18.56% 

(£173.82)