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- Rishi Sunak is now 1/5 to hold onto Richmond and Northallerton Constituency seat at General Election
- Labour Candidate Tom Wilson is the 3/1 second favourite in the market to win the seat
- Sunak is expected to be replaced as Prime Minister by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at upcoming election
Rishi Sunak is now 1/5 to hold onto Richmond and Northallerton Constituency seat at General Election
The 2024 UK General Election will take place this time next month on July 4 and bookmakers continue to offer odds on all of the constituencies across the UK that will head to the polls.
One of those constituencies is Richmond and Northallerton which is new for the 2024 General Election after replacing Richmond as part of the 2023 Periodic review of Westminster constituencies last year.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has held the Richmond seat ever since 2015 and the latest betting odds make it 1/5 that he does so again by winning the newly formed Richmond and Northallerton seat.
William Hill's latest betting market puts the PM as the clear favourite to win with an 83.3% implied probability given that he is voted in as MP there at the polls next month.
The odds though say that Sunak will be replaced as Prime Minister at the General Election with Labour expected to wipe the floor with the Conservatives when the UK goes to vote next month.
| Richmond and Northallerton Constituency Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives (Rishi Sunak) | 1/5 | 83.3% |
| Labour | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Reform UK | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Liberal Democrats | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Green Party | 150/1 | 0.7% |
What the expert says...
Labour Candidate Tom Wilson is the 3/1 second favourite in the market to win the seat
Tom Wilson was selected as Labour's Candidate for Richmond and Northallerton last month and he will be the man who will try and do the unthinkable in beating the current PM in his own seat.
Wilson hails from Darlington and will be looking to get the votes to topple Sunak from his seat in the new constituency with a big swing needed to replace him in the role.
The Labour candidate told the Labour Party's website that he is "hugely optimistic" about what can be achieved at the General Election adding that everything is up for grabs.
Next Prime Minister Odds | Betting History and Trends
Sunak is expected to be replaced as Prime Minister by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at upcoming election
The General Election will take place on 4 July 2024 and Labour have now been backed further into favourites at 1/66 to win following Nigel Farage's return to politics on Monday.
Farage announced that he is the new leader of Reform UK and will be running in Clacton next month and this has seen Labour's odds of winning grow further for the Election.
This is mainly due to Farage's party expecting to take votes away from the Conservatives which could well lead to free runs for the Labour Party at more seats that were expected to be tighter.
| UK General Election Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/66 | 98.5% |
| Conservative | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Reform UK | 28/1 | 3.4% |
| Liberal Democrat | 200/1 | 0.5% |
| Greens | 500/1 | 0.2% |
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Political Betting Expert
Jake Ashton
Senior News Editor
