I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Scottish Government's preference for the vote before 2024 is 5/1 with Bookies
- 50/1 for Referendum before the end of 2021
- 'For Independence given 55% Chance in what is sure to be a close result
- Scotland voted against independence by 55% to 45% in 2014
Restart Independence Work
Nicola Sturgeon has said the Scottish Government will get back to work on plans for a Scottish Independence referendum, outlining 'Before the end of 2023' as a potential date.
She said plans would be somewhat dictated by any further COVID interference but that it is clear another referendum since the last in 2014 is required, post the UK's leave decision on Brexit.
As a result betting sites have opened markets for wagers to place on the date.
Year of Next Scottish Independence Referendum Betting
One thing we can be sure of is that the referendum will not come before the end of the year with bookies makers offering only a 2% chance of 50/1 Odds in the Scottish referendum betting
| Year of Referendum | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 or Later | 1.68 | 59.52% |
| 2024 | 6.4 | 15.62% |
| 2023 | 7.8 | 12.82% |
| 2022 | 7.4 | 13.51% |
| 2021 | 50 | 2% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 8/9/2021
Betting Disagrees With First Minister
Whilst in the address Nicole Sturgeon claimed a wish for the referendum to take place before the end of 2023 bets that have come in on the event have preferred a date of no sooner than 2025.
The chance of the vote taking place before 2025 is 12.82% and 15.62% for 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Shrewd punters already betting on the event have preferred the 2025 or late option with a 60% chance according to odds of 3/4 - meaning you would have to bet £4 to win £3
With betting preference for some years ahead of us, we may have to consider who will be the Next First minister of Scotland and may be in charge at the time of any vote.
Brexit adds Swing to independence Voting?
The last Scottish referendum resulted in a 55%-45% spit in votes in favour for not adopting independence.
With the advent of the leave decision in the UK Brexit independence referendum, bookmakers think the feeling is that Scotland will be more inclined to vote for a break from the UK to be able to make its own decisions.
There is betting on the result of the Next referendum, although it is limited at this time only to a Scottish independence referendum taking place before 2022
Next Scottish independence referendum result betting (before 2022)
| Result of Vote | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| FOR Independence | 1.8 | 55.56% |
| AGAINST Independence | 2.28 | 43.86% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 189/2021
