Scottish Independence Referendum Betting Odds

Latest Scottish Referendum Betting Odds

• The Supreme Court rules against a second Scottish Independence Referendum.
• The best betting sites reacted by shortening A Referendum Not Before 2025 to 1/50.
• Stay and Leave remains neck and neck with the Scottish Independence bookmakers. 

What Year Will A Scottish Referendum Take Place

• The betting odds indicate the % chance that a specific year has. 

Will Scotland Vote To Stay or Leave The United Kingdom

• Currently, both betting options are neck and neck in the Scottish Independence betting market.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was the driving force behind Scottish Independence, she will be hard to replace.

How to bet on the Scottish Independence Referendum

There is nothing complicated about betting on this or any referendum, it is a betting market like a list of horses for the Grand National.

You simply need to go to your favourite betting app and head to the political section in the menu, select Scottish Referendum or Scottish Independence

If you do not have an active online betting account, then head over to our betting sites section where you will see a list of bookmakers available in the UK. 

We have in-depth reviews so you can see what other users think of them before deciding, or head over to the free bets page where you can see the list of welcome offers currently available from all UK betting sites. 

Placing your Scottish Independence Bet

So you have decided to place a referendum bet, all you need to do to visit the bookmaker's index of events, and then click politics. 

Scroll down to Scottish Independence/Referendum. 

• Make your selection. (Date, Yes/No)

• This will open up the bet slip, at which point you will see confirmation of the betting odds being offered

• Now you choose your stake - most betting sites will show you how much you can expect to have returned if your prediction is correct.

• If you are happy, simply hit, PLACE BET, to confirm your selection, stake, and bet.

• You will be given a receipt for your bet and it will appear in your open bets in your account details.

• Then it's just a matter of waiting to see the outcome. 

How Bookmaker Odds Work

There are only two possible outcomes when you have a two-runner race as we do for Yes/No.

The true probability of either For or Against is 50% in percentage terms, like the toss of a coin. 

This could be reflected in betting odds of Evens, or 2.00, however, the bookmaker would not make a profit if offering those odds in a two-runner race. 

So he or she will create an over-round (the bookie's profit) by offering odds of less than evens. 1.83 (5/6).

So if he were to take bets of £100 each on both heads and tails, a total of £200 in bets,  whatever the outcome, he would pay out only £183 meaning a £17 profit for the bookmaker. 

What is Referendum Betting?

The two main betting markets are when and if: 

• When will the Scottish Independence Referendum be held?
• Will Scotland vote to stay or leave the United Kingdom?  

The odds will fluctuate in both the main Scottish Independence betting markets.  

Keep a note of opinion polling, we suspect there will be a host of these trying to gauge the mood of voters. 

The Daily Record and Scotsman polls should be helpful to bettors looking for information and clues. 

Make sure you hunt down the best independence betting odds, all the leading bookies should cover a range of indyref2 markets. 

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The Scottish Independence Referendum Betting News Diary Timeline

The betting odds for The Scottish Referendum will see plenty of speculation and a lot of fluctuation.

Here is a round-up of the Scottish Referendum Betting Timeline from our OLBG News feed. 

15th March 2023

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Next Permanent Leader of the SNP Betting Odds: Humza Yousaf is the ODDS ON favourite to be the next leader of the Scottish National Party according to latest bookmaker odds!

The next Scottish Independence Referendum could come up in conversation again following the succession of Nicola Sturgeon but contender Kate Forbes signalled it could be years before another vote is held. The latest odds have both Yes and No at the same chances of winning with both sides being 5/6 in the betting market to be voted. Paddy Power say there's a 54% probability implied by those odds of either side winning the vote with the last Scottish Independence referendum taking place in 2014.

19th October 2022

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Scottish Independence Referendum Betting Odds: 57% chance that Scotland votes YES in a potential 2023 referendum according to bookmakers!

The Scottish independence referendum has been in the news again this week with the Supreme Court beginning their hearing on the independence vote. It may well take months for the Supreme Court to reach a decision on whether the Scottish Government’s intention to hold another independence referendum is legal or not. Bookies make it 8/11 that Scotland would vote yes if the 2023 independence referendum does go ahead but it looks unlikely that it will next year. Smarkets give a whole host of odds around the Scottish indyref2 with Nicola Sturgeon wanting to hold the referendum in October 2023.

30th September 2022

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Scottish Independence Referendum Betting Odds: Bookies make it a 57% chance that Scotland votes YES in a potential 2023 referendum!

The Scottish independence referendum has been in the news this week with the SNP publishing its arguments it has put to the Supreme Court. Bookies make it 8/11 that Scotland would vote yes if the 2023 independence referendum does go ahead but that looks unlikely. Smarkets give a whole host of odds around the Scottish indyref2 with Nicola Sturgeon wanting to hold the referendum in October 2023.

28th June 2022

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Scottish Independence Referendum Betting Odds: 5/1 that the Independence Referendum takes place in 2023 with Nicola Sturgeon announcing plans!

Tuesday afternoon saw Nicola Sturgeon announce plans to go ahead with a second independence referendum, 8 years on from the 2014 vote. Scotland voted No in that referendum and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that that vote should be respected. Sturgeon though said on Tuesday that she "is not willing to allow Scottish democracy to be denied by this or any other Prime Minister." Bookmakers make 2025 or later 4/11 favourite in the market for when the next independence referendum will be.

8th September 2021

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Nicola Sturgeon Scottish Independance Plans - Bookmakers react with referendum betting

Nicola Sturgeon has said the Scottish Government will get back to work on plans for a Scottish Independence referendum, outlining 'Before the end of 2023' as a potential date. She said plans would be somewhat dictated by any further COVID interference but that it is clear another referendum since the last in 2014 is required, post the UK's leave decision on Brexit. As a result betting sites have opened markets for wagers to place on the date. Year of Next Scottish Independence Referendum Betting. One thing we can be sure of is that the referendum will not come before the end of the year with bookies makers offering only a 2% chance of 50/1 Odds in the Scottish referendum betting

Supreme Court Ruling

In November 2022 the Supreme Court President ruled that the Scottish Government did not have the power to hold a referendum on independence without Westminster approval.

Nicola Sturgeon the SNP leader at the time reacted by saying "our voice cannot and will not be silenced".

It is a blow for the nationalists and it will be interesting to see if the Scottish Independence momentum wanes or is energised by the ruling. 

Scottish Independence

The current Conservative Government are unlikely to agree to a second Scottish Independence referendum, the Tories are likely to cite that the 2014 vote should be respected. 

The question in 2014 was:

Should Scotland Be An Independent Country

Only 4 councils voted YES, all the others voted NO. 

• Glasgow
• North Lanarkshire
• Dundee City
• West Dunbartonshire

Scottish Independence History

Self-government for Scotland has been a wish for many Scots, however, the majority had always been cautious about leaving the Union and the campaign was really on the fringes of Scottish political life.

However, a devolved Scottish Parliament was formed in 1999. This gave Scotland decision-making powers over domestic policy. 

Once the pro-independence party the SNP won an overall majority at the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election the country was on a path to independence. 

The opposing parties who all opposed leaving the union were powerless to stop a party whose number one policy aim was to leave the United Kingdom. 

The SNP leader Alex Salmond was reelected First Minister and he pushed on with legislation to give Scotland a referendum.

When the Brexit votes were counted this reignited the Scottish Independence question with the majority of Scots voting to stay in the EU (62% - 38%). 

The current leader of the SNP Nicola Sturgeon cites the country's wish to stay within the EU, thus justifying another independence vote. 

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