Punchestown Festival Thursday Preview & Trends

2024 Punchestown Festival Thursday Highlights

The top-staying hurdlers take centre stage in the Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle over three miles on day 3 of the Punchestown Festival, this first Grade 1 on Thursday's card carries a purse of 275,000 euros.

It's the turn of the young chasers competing for a 125,000 euro purse in the other Grade 1 on Thursday, the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase over two miles.

We have also previewed the two high-value handicaps starting with the Pigsback.com Handicap Chase over two miles, this Grade B event carries a purse of 50,000 euros.

The Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle over three miles is a Grade B event carrying a 50,000 euro purse.

Hopefully, we can pinpoint a few likely winners for you using the past twenty-year trends. Good luck with your bets!

• 16:15 - Pigsback.com Handicap Chase
• 17:25 - Barberstown Castle Novice Chase
• 18:00 - Punchestown Champion Stayers Hurdle
• 18:35 - Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle

2024 Pigsback Handicap Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

A decent Grade B race run at Punchestown racecourse on the third day of the Punchestown Festival, this handicap chase is run over the minimum trip of two miles in which eleven fences are to be faced, the race is open to runners who are aged four or older.

The runner which holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2013 renewal when Twinlight from W P Mullins under the guidance of R Walsh, won in a time of 4:32.60, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Junior Fontaine, trained by A L T Moore and ridden by Conor O'Dwyer set the quickest time of 4:02.00 in the 2004 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Pigsback Handicap Chase over the last 20 renewals:

• 2004 - Junior Fontaine (4:02.00)
• 2023 - Dinoblue (4:02.90)
• 2007 - Wills Wilde (4:05.20)

How competitive is the Pigsback Handicap Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 115%. The race in 2005 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 157%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Pigsback Handicap Chase, the over-round has been 129% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £129 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Pigsback Handicap Chase next time out then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -12.75.

Pigsback Handicap Chase Past Winners

Here are the past five winners of the Pigsback Handicap Chase:

Leading Trainers in the Pigsback Handicap Chase

• W P Mullins - 4 wins and 4 places from 23 runners (+6.75)
• A L T Moore - 2 wins and 1 place from 18 runners (+7.00)
• P A Fahy - 2 wins and 1 place from 5 runners (+16.00)

The leading trainer in the Pigsback Handicap Chase over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Irish Invader (2008), Twinlight (2013), Cadmium (2018) & Dinoblue (2023). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Pigsback Handicap Chase are A L T Moore (2 wins) & P A Fahy (2 wins). Two trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Pigsback Handicap Chase, Paul Nolan has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst Noel Meade has sent out 11 without a winner.

Leading Jockeys in the Pigsback Handicap Chase

• Mark Walsh - 3 wins and 1 place from 9 rides (+11.75)
• Danny Mullins - 1 win and 1 place from 4 rides (+9.00)
• Conor Maxwell - 1 win and 0 places from 1 ride (+16.00)

The leading jockey in the Pigsback Handicap Chase over the last 20 renewals is Mark Walsh who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Jacksonslady (2015), Dont Touch It (2017) & Dinoblue (2023).

Pigsback Handicap Chase Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,3,(4,13),1,PU,11,1,4,F,(1,7),2,3,4,3,2,5,3,1,3,F,1

• 20 / 20 (68%) - Fewer than 5 placings (Hcps)
• 20 / 20 (69%) - Fewer than 14 starts (Hcps)
• 20 / 20 (78%) - Not on GD/GF/FM/STD (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (79%) - Fewer than 3 wins (Hcps)
• 20 / 20 (80%) - Won within last 8 starts
• 20 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 20/1 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (87%) - Is not GB/GER/NZ/USA bred
• 20 / 20 (87%) - Not in ENG/DEU/ITA/NZL/WAL (Debut)
• 20 / 20 (88%) - Made 2 - 23 starts (Further)
• 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 25/1
• 20 / 20 (88%) - In a field of 4 - 18 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Fewer than 6 starts (Course)
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 3 - 21 starts (Chase)
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Not in a G2/LST/Cl3 (Debut)
• 19 / 20 (81%) - No bigger than 50/1 (Career)

2024 Barberstown Castle Novice Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

One of two Grade 1 races on the third day of the festival is the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase which was previously sponsored by Ryanair, a race that is open to novice chasers who are aged five or older and they will have to cope with a total of eleven fences over this two-mile trip.

The runner which holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2012 renewal when Lucky William from Thomas Cooper under the guidance of Barry Geraghty, won in a time of 4:35.00, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, El Fabiolo, trained by W P Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend set the quickest time of 3:59.20 in the 2023 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Barberstown Castle Novice Chase over the last 20 renewals:

• 2023 - El Fabiolo (3:59.20)
• 2006 - Accordion Etoile (4:02.50)
• 2004 - Say Again (4:04.40)

How competitive is the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2011 when the race had an over-round of 105%. The race in 2017 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 120%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase, the over-round has been 114% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £114 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase next time out then you would have backed a total of 10 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +14.61.

Barberstown Castle Novice Chase Past Winners

Here are the past five winners of the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase:

Leading Trainers in the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase

• W P Mullins - 10 wins and 2 places from 29 runners (-2.73)
• Paul Nolan - 2 wins and 0 places from 2 runners (+8.25)
• M F Morris - 1 win and 0 places from 7 runners (-3.00)

The leading trainer in the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 10 times. Those 10 winners came from Barker (2009), Arvika Ligeonniere (2013), Un De Sceaux (2015), Douvan (2016), Great Field (2017), Footpad (2018), Chacun Pour Soi (2019), Energumene (2021), Blue Lord (2022) & El Fabiolo (2023). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase is Paul Nolan (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase, Henry De Bromhead has sent a total of 12 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Leading Jockeys in the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase

• Paul Townend - 3 wins and 1 place from 8 rides (-2.35)
• Graham Lee - 1 win and 0 places from 1 ride (+5.00)
• Jody McGarvey - 1 win and 0 places from 1 ride (+0.90)

The leading jockey in the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase over the last 20 renewals is Paul Townend who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Energumene (2021), Blue Lord (2022) & El Fabiolo (2023).

Barberstown Castle Novice Chase Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,1,BD,2,2,UR,3,2,F,1,3,1,6,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,1

• 20 / 20 (71%) - Made 1 - 7 starts (1 Year)
• 20 / 20 (78%) - Off a break of 18 - 81 days
• 20 / 20 (79%) - Fewer than 8 starts (Season)
• 20 / 20 (80%) - Achieved a TS of 111+ (Last 3)
• 20 / 20 (83%) - Highest Placed is not G3/Cl3
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Break of 18 - 164 days (Last Place)
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Not on GD/FM (Debut)
• 20 / 20 (85%) - Achieved an RPR of 139+ (Last 3)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - No bigger than 6/1 (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (88%) - Not in a G3/Cl2 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (88%) - Ran over 1m4f - 2m4½f (Debut)
• 20 / 20 (88%) - Within the first 6 of the market
• 20 / 20 (88%) - Fewer than 6 placings (Season)
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Is not GB/GER/USA bred
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Had 1 - 6 placings (1 Year)

2024 Champion Stayers Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

The Champion Stayers Hurdle is a Grade 1 race that is currently run on the third day of the Punchestown Festival, the runners face a three-mile trip in which they will have to contend with a total of fourteen hurdles on their way to becoming the champion stayer!

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Thomas Mullins trained Asian Maze ridden by R Walsh who set the fastest winning time in the Champion Stayers Hurdle, the runner won the race in a time of 5:44.20 which was set when winning the race in 2006. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer W P Mullins and jockey R Walsh with Quevega who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 6:30.20 in the 2013 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Champion Stayers Hurdle over the last 20 renewals:

• 2006 - Asian Maze (5:44.20)
• 2011 - Quevega (5:45.60)
• 2004 - Rhinestone Cowboy (5:48.20)

How competitive is the Champion Stayers Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2013 when the race had an over-round of 77%. The race in 2006 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 125%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Champion Stayers Hurdle, the over-round has been 117% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Champion Stayers Hurdle next time out then you would have backed a total of 8 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -4.59.

Champion Stayers Hurdle Past Winners

Here are the past five winners of the Champion Stayers Hurdle:

Leading Trainers in the Champion Stayers Hurdle

• W P Mullins - 10 wins and 12 places from 53 runners (-15.32)
• Mrs John Harrington - 2 wins and 1 place from 8 runners (+16.50)
• Jonjo O'Neill - 2 wins and 3 places from 7 runners (+13.50)

The leading trainer in the Champion Stayers Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 10 times. Those 10 winners came from Holy Orders (2003), Fiveforthree (2009), Quevega (2010), Quevega (2011), Quevega (2012), Quevega (2013), Faugheen (2018), Klassical Dream (2021), Klassical Dream (2022) & Klassical Dream (2023). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Champion Stayers Hurdle are Mrs John Harrington (2 wins), Jonjo O'Neill (2 wins) & Harry Fry (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Champion Stayers Hurdle, Gordon Elliott has sent a total of 15 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Leading Jockeys in the Champion Stayers Hurdle

• Paul Townend - 3 wins and 2 places from 11 rides (-1.40)
• Mark Walsh - 2 wins and 1 place from 7 rides (+13.50)
• Mr P W Mullins - 1 win and 2 places from 6 rides (+0.00)

The leading jockey in the Champion Stayers Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is Paul Townend who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Quevega (2010), Klassical Dream (2022) & Klassical Dream (2023). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Champion Stayers Hurdle is Mark Walsh (2 wins).

Champion Stayers Hurdle Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,2,2,7,1,PU,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,2,2,3,PU,1,(1,4)

• 20 / 20 (61%) - Achieved a TS of 89+ (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (72%) - Achieved a TS of 122+ (Last 5)
• 20 / 20 (77%) - Not in a G3/Cl4 (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (81%) - Highest Won is not G3/LST/Cl4
• 20 / 20 (81%) - Within the first 8 of the market
• 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 25/1
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Won by at least ¾ (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Had 4 - 14 wins (Career)
• 20 / 20 (87%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)
• 20 / 20 (87%) - No more than 1 fall (Career)
• 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 25/1 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Achieved an RPR of 111+ (Class)
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Achieved an RPR of 100+ (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Won within last 7 starts
• 19 / 20 (81%) - Achieved an RPR of 144+ (Last 3)

2024 Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

A Grade B handicap run on the third day of the Punchestown Festival is the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle, a race which usually attracts a large field for the three-mile trip in which a total of fourteen hurdles which the runners will face, the race is open to runners age four or older.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the W P Mullins trained Kerb Appeal ridden by D J Casey who set the fastest winning time in the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle, the runner won the race in a time of 5:35.60 which was set when winning the race in 2011. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer E J O'Grady and jockey Barry Geraghty with Acapulco who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 6:43.50 in the 2013 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle over the last 20 renewals:

• 2011 - Kerb Appeal (5:35.60)
• 2004 - Hurry Bob (5:42.80)
• 2007 - Sonnyanjoe (5:45.20)

How competitive is the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 136%. The race in 2005 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 171%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle, the over-round has been 150% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £150 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle next time out then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -1.75.

Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle Past Winners

Here are the past five winners of the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle:

Leading Trainers in the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle

• W P Mullins - 4 wins and 9 places from 54 runners (-6.50)
• Denis W Cullen - 2 wins and 0 places from 5 runners (+14.00)
• Oliver McKiernan - 1 win and 0 places from 7 runners (+2.00)

The leading trainer in the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Kerb Appeal (2011), Avant Tout (2015), My Sister Sarah (2019) & Capodanno (2021). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle is Denis W Cullen (2 wins). Multiple trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle, Noel Meade (0-25), Mrs John Harrington (0-17), Gordon Elliott (0-14), Henry De Bromhead (0-11), M F Morris (0-11) & Paul Nolan (0-11) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Leading Jockeys in the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle

• Mark Walsh - 4 wins and 0 places from 15 rides (+38.00)
• Danny Mullins - 1 win and 1 place from 11 rides (+10.00)
• Paul Townend - 1 win and 2 places from 10 rides (-5.00)

The leading jockey in the Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is Mark Walsh who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Allofasudden (2003), Off The Charts (2014), A Great View (2018) & A Great View (2022).

Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,PU,3,1,20,3,4,20,18,6,PU,1,15,3,2,(1,2),5,1,1,5,PU

• 20 / 20 (77%) - No bigger than 25/1
• 20 / 20 (78%) - Fewer than 4 placings (Season)
• 20 / 20 (82%) - Ran over 2m2½f - 3m (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (83%) - Carried 146 - 166lbs (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 25/1 (Debut)
• 20 / 20 (85%) - Ran over 1m2f - 2m4½f (Debut)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - In a field of 10 - 30 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Beaten no more -38l (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Fewer than 5 placings (1 Year)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Fewer than 5 wins (Career)
• 20 / 20 (87%) - Fewer than 3 wins (Hcps)
• 20 / 20 (88%) - Held an OR of 87+ (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (89%) - No more than 1 fall (Career)
• 19 / 20 (87%) - Highest Placed is not LST/Cl4
• 17 / 20 (61%) - No bigger than 12/1 (LTO)