Punchestown Festival Friday Preview & Trends

2024 Punchestown Festival Friday Highlights

Friday's highlight is the Paddy Power Punchestown Champion Hurdle, a Grade 1 event over two miles worth 300,000 euros. Won in the past by top champions like Istabraq, Moscow Flyer, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Punjabi, Solwhit, Faugheen and the brilliant four-time winner Hurricane Fly between 2010 and 2013.

The second Grade 1 on Friday's card is the Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle over two miles four furlongs. This valuable Grade 1 event has also been won by Istabraq before going on to Champion Hurdle glory and fairly recent winners include top stars Vautour and Nichols Canyon.

Also included in our Punchestown Festival trends preview for Friday is the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase, a 100,000 euro purse with Grade A status over two miles five furlongs.

Hopefully, we can highlight some winners and you find the trends analysis useful. Good Luck!

• 16:15 - EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase
• 18:00 - Punchestown Champion Hurdle
• 18:35 - Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle

2024 EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

The EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase is a valuable race that features on the fourth day of the Punchestown Festival, this Grade A race will see the runner face a total of fifteen fences during their two miles and five-furlong trip in a race that is open to runners aged at least five.

Over the last 18 renewals, it was the W P Mullins trained Blood Cotil ridden by Paul Townend who set the fastest winning time in the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase, the runner won the race in a time of 5:24.70 which was set when winning the race in 2015. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Mrs John Harrington and jockey Robbie Power with Pay It Forward who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 6:34.70 in the 2005 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase over the last 18 renewals:

• 2015 - Blood Cotil (5:24.70)
• 2010 - Chasing Cars (5:26.90)
• 2008 - Scotsirish (5:27.90)

How competitive is the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 18 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 111%. The race in 2008 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 146%, whilst on average over the last 18 renewals of the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase, the over-round has been 127% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £127 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 18 if you had followed the winner of the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 16 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -11.82.

EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase Past Winners

Here are the past five winners of the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase:

Leading Trainers in the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase

• W P Mullins - 10 wins and 4 places from 39 runners (+21.25)
• Mrs John Harrington - 5 wins and 2 places from 18 runners (+38.75)
• Philip Hobbs - 1 win and 0 places from 3 runners (+0.75)

The leading trainer in the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase over the last 18 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 10 times. Those 10 winners came from Alexander Taipan (2007), Scotsirish (2008), Equus Maximus (2009), Blood Cotil (2015), Avant Tout (2016), Kemboy (2018), Real Steel (2019), Asterion Forlonge (2021), El Barra (2022) & Kilcruit (2023). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase is Mrs John Harrington (5 wins). There are two trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 18 renewals in the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase, Noel Meade has sent a total of 18 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst Henry De Bromhead has sent out 17 without a winner.

Leading Jockeys in the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase

• Paul Townend - 5 wins and 1 place from 10 rides (+19.50)
• Mark Walsh - 1 win and 1 place from 12 rides (+1.00)
• Jack Foley - 1 win and 0 places from 2 rides (+7.00)

The leading jockey in the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase over the last 18 renewals is Paul Townend who has won the race 5 times. Those 5 winners came from Blood Cotil (2015), Avant Tout (2016), Kemboy (2018), Real Steel (2019) & Kilcruit (2023).

EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,5,3,1,9,1,PU,(1,2),F,(4,6),11,9,PU,1,1,1,1,3,1

• 18 / 18 (71%) - Made 9 - 22 starts (Career)
• 18 / 18 (76%) - Not in a Handicap (Last Win)
• 18 / 18 (78%) - Had 1 - 4 placings (180 Days)
• 18 / 18 (79%) - Break of 11 - 159 days (Last Place)
• 18 / 18 (79%) - Made 4 - 9 starts (1 Year)
• 18 / 18 (80%) - Made 3 - 7 starts (180 Days)
• 18 / 18 (81%) - Fewer than 9 starts (Hcps)
• 18 / 18 (81%) - Carried 149 - 166lbs (LTO)
• 18 / 18 (83%) - Achieved a TS of 95+ (Last 5)
• 18 / 18 (83%) - Carried 154 - 168lbs (Last Win)
• 18 / 18 (83%) - No bigger than 20/1 (Career Place)
• 18 / 18 (84%) - Had 4 - 12 placings (Career)
• 18 / 18 (84%) - Beaten no more -25l (Debut)
• 18 / 18 (85%) - Fewer than 4 placings (Hcps)
• 18 / 18 (85%) - Achieved an RPR of 125+ (Last Win)

2024 Punchestown Champion Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

The feature race on day four of the festival is the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, a Grade 1 race that is run over a trip of two miles in which nine hurdles will stand between the runners and being crowned champion, the race is open to runners who are aged four or older.

The runner which holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2013 renewal when Hurricane Fly from W P Mullins under the guidance of R Walsh, won in a time of 4:14.30, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Hardy Eustace, trained by D T Hughes and ridden by Conor O'Dwyer set the quickest time of 3:44.00 in the 2004 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Punchestown Champion Hurdle over the last 20 renewals:

• 2004 - Hardy Eustace (3:44.00)
• 2003 - Quazar (3:46.20)
• 2011 - Hurricane Fly (3:49.60)

How competitive is the Punchestown Champion Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2010 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 125%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, the over-round has been 114% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £114 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Punchestown Champion Hurdle next time out then you would have backed a total of 9 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +1.08.

Punchestown Champion Hurdle Past Winners

Here are the past five winners of the Punchestown Champion Hurdle:

Leading Trainers in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle

• W P Mullins - 8 wins and 9 places from 36 runners (-10.65)
• Mrs John Harrington - 3 wins and 2 places from 8 runners (+5.55)
• Nicky Henderson - 2 wins and 3 places from 9 runners (-3.00)

The leading trainer in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 8 times. Those 8 winners came from Hurricane Fly (2010), Hurricane Fly (2011), Hurricane Fly (2012), Hurricane Fly (2013), Faugheen (2015), Vroum Vroum Mag (2016), Wicklow Brave (2017) & State Man (2023). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle are Mrs John Harrington (3 wins), Nicky Henderson (2 wins) & Henry De Bromhead (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, Gordon Elliott has sent a total of 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Leading Jockeys in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle

• Paul Townend - 2 wins and 3 places from 10 rides (-4.60)
• Rachael Blackmore - 2 wins and 0 places from 3 rides (-0.23)
• Mr P W Mullins - 1 win and 2 places from 5 rides (+8.00)

There are two leading jockeys in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle over the last 20 renewals with both Paul Townend & Rachael Blackmore who have both won the race 2 times. Paul Townend winners have been with Hurricane Fly (2010) & State Man (2023). Rachael Blackmore winners have been with Honeysuckle (2021) & Honeysuckle (2022).

Punchestown Champion Hurdle Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,2,2,2,2,2,2,(1,3),6,1,1,1,1,1,1,7,F,(1,5),1,1,1

• 20 / 20 (72%) - Beaten no more -14½l (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (72%) - Not in a G2-3/LST/Cl2 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (73%) - No bigger than 20/1
• 20 / 20 (75%) - Not on GS/GF/FM/STD (Debut)
• 20 / 20 (76%) - Highest Won is not G2/LST/Cl2/Cl4
• 20 / 20 (78%) - Made 9 - 31 starts (Career)
• 20 / 20 (78%) - Achieved an RPR of 151+ (Last 3)
• 20 / 20 (79%) - Not in a G3/Cl4 (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (79%) - Achieved an RPR of 146+ (Class)
• 20 / 20 (80%) - Had 5 - 19 wins (Career)
• 20 / 20 (80%) - Had 8 - 24 placings (Career)
• 20 / 20 (83%) - Placed within last 3 starts
• 20 / 20 (83%) - Made 2 - 12 starts (Further)
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Made 5 - 21 starts (Hurdle)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Within the first 6 of the market

2024 Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

The Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle is the second Grade 1 on the fourth day of the Punchestown Festival, it is run after the Champion Hurdle. The race is open to novice hurdlers who are aged four or older, it is run over a trip of two miles and four furlongs where there are twelve hurdles to jump on their way to being crowned the champion novice hurdler.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 4:47.20 was set by Sadlers Wings in 2004, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by W P Mullins and ridden by R Walsh. The slowest winning time was set in 2013 when Un Atout won in a time of 5:30.50, booked to ride was Davy Russell on this W P Mullins trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle over the last 20 renewals:

• 2004 - Sadlers Wings (4:47.20)
• 2022 - State Man (4:48.80)
• 2014 - Vautour (4:49.10)

How competitive is the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 109%. The race in 2003 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 135%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle, the over-round has been 118% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £118 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle next time out then you would have backed a total of 5 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -5.41.

Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle Past Winners

Here are the past five winners of the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle:

Leading Trainers in the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle

• W P Mullins - 11 wins and 7 places from 44 runners (-5.99)
• Noel Meade - 1 win and 1 place from 11 runners (-9.10)
• Gordon Elliott - 1 win and 1 place from 6 runners (+11.00)

The leading trainer in the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 11 times. Those 11 winners came from Nobody Told Me (2003), Sadlers Wings (2004), Glencove Marina (2007), Mikael DHaguenet (2009), Un Atout (2013), Vautour (2014), Nichols Canyon (2015), Bacardys (2017), Gaillard Du Mesnil (2021), State Man (2022) & Impaire Et Passe (2023).

Leading Jockeys in the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle

• Paul Townend - 3 wins and 1 place from 8 rides (-3.07)
• Mr P W Mullins - 1 win and 1 place from 5 rides (+6.00)
• Jack Kennedy - 1 win and 0 places from 3 rides (+14.00)

The leading jockey in the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is Paul Townend who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Gaillard Du Mesnil (2021), State Man (2022) & Impaire Et Passe (2023).

Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,4,1,1,1,(1,F),3,1,1,6,5,1,1,1,1,2,(5,PU),6,1,1,1

• 20 / 20 (64%) - Break of 12 - 114 days (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (71%) - Break of 12 - 96 days (Last Place)
• 20 / 20 (73%) - No bigger than 16/1
• 20 / 20 (74%) - Achieved a TS of 111+ (Last 5)
• 20 / 20 (78%) - Within the first 7 of the market
• 20 / 20 (79%) - Highest Won is not LST/Cl3/Cl5
• 20 / 20 (80%) - Won within last 3 starts
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Off a break of 12 - 74 days
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Carried 148 - 164lbs (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Not on HY (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (87%) - Had 2 - 7 wins (Career)
• 20 / 20 (88%) - Had 1 - 5 wins (180 Days)
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Won by at least ½l (Last Win)
• 19 / 20 (76%) - No more than +1yrs (Vs Min Age)
• 19 / 20 (80%) - Placed within last 2 starts