Scottish Borders National Preview, Trends & Analysis

We look at the Scottish Borders National ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 4m½f at Kelso to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the Scottish Borders National.

Scottish Borders National Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Scottish Borders National Preview

Scheduled to take place in December of each year at the Kelso racecourse is the Scottish Borders National, a race which has undergone changes over the years, it was originally scheduled to take place in March but in 2007 was moved to December, it was run twice in that year and some have questioned the move to December as it has been cancelled three times since the move due to bad weather, it does make it much more demanding also, four miles in December is always going to be much more testing than four miles in March.

Scottish Borders National Content:

Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Kelso Betting Picks page to see which of those runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet?

The runner that holds the record over the past 18 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2002 renewal when Running Moss from Alan Mactaggart under the guidance of Mr C Storey, won in a time of 9:34.20, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Royale Knight, trained by Dr Richard Newland and ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies set the quickest time of 8:21.30 in the 2013 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Scottish Borders National over the last 18 renewals:

  • 2013 - Royale Knight (8:21.30)
  • 2004 - Tipsy Mouse (8:24.00)
  • 2018 - Harry The Viking (8:31.60)

How competitive is the Scottish Borders National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 18 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 112%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 129%, whilst on average over the last 18 renewals of the Scottish Borders National, the over-round has been 120%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £120 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 18 if you had followed the winner of the Scottish Borders National next time out then you would have backed a total of 1 winner. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -14.50. Before placing your bet on the 2023 Scottish Borders National see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.

Scottish Borders National Past Winners

Here are the Scottish Borders National past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Scottish Borders National as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Race Notes: The race was originally run in March but was switched to December in 2007. No race in 2001, 2006, 2008, 2010 & 2017 and two races in 2007.

Year Horse Info
2022
8:55.09
Flower Of Scotland (FR)
7yo 10-2 100/30F
Danny McMenamin
Sandy Thomson (GB)
2021
9:06.14
Big River (IRE)
11yo 11-9 15/2
Derek Fox
Lucinda Russell (GB)
2020
9:04.58
Dino Boy (FR)
7yo 10-0 11/1
Conor O'Farrell
Iain Jardine (GB)
2019
9:19.49
Bigirononhiship (IRE)
8yo 10-11 12/1
Craig Nichol
Rose Dobbin (GB)
2018
8:31.60
Harry The Viking (GB)
13yo 10-0 16/1
Rachael McDonald (5lbs)
Sandy Thomson (GB)
2016
8:46.80
Harry The Viking (GB)
11yo 9-13 5/1
Rachael McDonald (7lbs)
Sandy Thomson (GB)
2015
9:33.60
Neptune Equester (GB)
12yo 11-4 11/4F
Derek Fox (3lbs)
Sandy Thomson (GB)
2014
8:44.20
Neptune Equester (GB)
11yo 10-4 5/1
Derek Fox (3lbs)
Sandy Thomson (GB)
2013
8:21.30
Royale Knight (GB)
7yo 10-3 6/1
Sam Twiston-Davies
Dr Richard Newland (GB)
2012
9:23.20
Mortimers Cross (GB)
11yo 10-10 12/1
Mr Paul John (7lbs)
John Needham (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Scottish Borders National have been based:

  • GB: 19 winners with an additional 37 placings from 203 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 14 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 6 runners

Scottish Borders National Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Scottish Borders National over the last 18 renewals is Sandy Thomson who has won the race 5 times. Those 5 winners came from Neptune Equester (2014), Neptune Equester (2015), Harry The Viking (2016), Harry The Viking (2018) & Flower Of Scotland (2022).

Here are some of the top Scottish Borders National trainer statistics over the last 18 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Sandy Thomson 10-5-5 +27.08 +14.86
Lucinda Russell 11-1-3 -2.50 +0.92
Dr Richard Newland 6-1-2 +1.00 +0.20
Sue Smith 6-1-1 -2.00 -3.12
Rose Dobbin 5-1-1 +8.00 +3.50
Ian Williams 3-1-1 +3.00 +1.13
Iain Jardine 2-1-1 +10.00 +5.60
Nick Williams 2-1-1 +4.00 +2.00
John Quinn 1-1-1 +4.00 +2.40
Jonjo O'Neill 8-0-2 -8.00 -5.30

Scottish Borders National Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Scottish Borders National over the last 18 renewals is Derek Fox who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Neptune Equester (2014), Neptune Equester (2015) & Big River (2021). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Scottish Borders National are James Reveley (2 wins) & Rachael McDonald (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Scottish Borders National jockey statistics over the last 18 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Derek Fox 6-3-4 +12.25 +10.97
James Reveley 6-2-5 +27.00 +18.83
Rachael McDonald 2-2-2 +21.00 +13.13
Craig Nichol 4-1-1 +9.00 +4.50
Sam Twiston-Davies 4-1-1 +3.00 +0.60
Conor O'Farrell 3-1-1 +9.00 +4.60
Daryl Jacob 3-1-2 +3.00 +1.92
Dougie Costello 3-1-2 +2.00 +2.40
Danny McMenamin 2-1-1 +2.33 +1.08
Graham Lee 8-0-0 -8.00 -8.00

2023 Scottish Borders National Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): (1, 8), F, 5, 1, 2, (F, PU), 1, UR, PU, 3, PU, (1, PU), 6, 2, F, F, 0, 1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 19 / 19 (70%) - Carried 135-158lbs (LTO)
  • 19 / 19 (81%) - Field of 7-17 (Debut)
  • 19 / 19 (81%) - Carried 140-164lbs (Last Win)
  • 19 / 19 (85%) - Break of 12-69 days
  • 19 / 19 (85%) - Achieved a TS of 66+ (Going)
  • 19 / 19 (85%) - Achieved a TS of 56+ (Last 3)
  • 19 / 19 (86%) - Had 1 - 13 placings (Hcps)
  • 19 / 19 (86%) - Made 2-9 starts (1 Year)
  • 19 / 19 (87%) - Had 3 - 19 placings (Chase)
  • 19 / 19 (87%) - Made 4-37 starts (Hcps)
  • 19 / 19 (87%) - Ran over 1m7½f - 3m (Debut)
  • 19 / 19 (87%) - Held an OR of 97+ (Last Win)
  • 19 / 19 (88%) - Had 1 - 5 placings (1 Year)
  • 19 / 19 (88%) - Achieved a TS of 94+ (Career)
  • 19 / 19 (88%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 19 / 19 (88%) - Held an OR of 103+ (LTO)
  • 19 / 19 (89%) - Within the first 11 of market
  • 19 / 19 (89%) - Held an OR of 105+ (Season)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Kelso racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Scottish Borders National. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles like the How to Find Winners - 101 Tips to Choose A Winning Horse Racing Bet.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Scottish Borders National by adding a tip on the race here.

Scottish Borders National Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 9+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +20.50 is when runners had recorded 1 career fall. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a race worth £4.000 when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-34.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Scottish Borders National is Carlisle, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Carlisle last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Kelso, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Kelso last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 16 winners from a total of 207 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 3 winners from a total of 16 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Scottish Borders National:

  • Roselier (3 Wins)
  • Sir Harry Lewis (2 Wins)
  • Sovereign Water (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Scottish Borders National despite multiple attempts:

  • Endoli (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Westerner (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 18 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rambling Minster in 2007, winning for Keith Reveley at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of James Reveley. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 18 renewals there has been a total of 5 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters. If you are interested in other races at the Kelso racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Premier Kelso Hurdle.

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