Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Conservatives are already favourites to win the next General Election with odds offered
- Further specials are aimed at Nigel Farage with his popularity continuing to rise
- Next General Election set to take place in 2029 or later according to odds
Conservatives are already favourites to win the next General Election with odds offered
Keir Starmer's first 5 months in the role of Prime Minister has been a rollercoaster to say the least with approval ratings already suggesting that his time in charge has been poor.
55% of pollers in a recent YouGov survey said that Keir Starmer is doing "badly" as PM and now that has been echoed in the latest market offered by bookmakers.
The Conservative Party are 6/4 favourites to win the most seats at the next General Election with Ladbrokes putting the party just ahead of Labour to win at the polls next.
Reform UK follow just behind as third favourites in the market at 9/4 with the top three parties the closest we have seen in recent years.
Usual betting odds on a General Election would be a two-horse race between Conservatives and Labour but Reform now look to be a strong third runner in the race.
| Next General Election Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Labour | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Reform UK | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Liberal Democrats | 50/1 | 2.0% |
| Greens | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Further specials are aimed at Nigel Farage with his popularity continuing to rise
Various sources in the build-up to the last General Election linked Nigel Farage with a potential joining of the Conservative Party after the election wrapped up but there has been no moves as of yet.
Farage is the leader of the Reform UK Party and he has since called on Tory councillors to defect to his party as he looks to build a strong run at the next elections.
Specials around Farage give odds of 7/4 that he becomes UK Prime Minister at some point before 2040 with an implied probability of 36.4% of happening.
| Nigel Farage Specials | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage TO NOT become leader of The Conservative Party before 2026 | 1/10 | 90.9% |
| Nigel Farage to become UK Prime Minister before 2040 | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Nigel Farage to become leader of The Conservative Party before 2026 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Nigel Farage to become Prime Minister in 2025 | 50/1 | 2.0% |
Next General Election set to take place in 2029 or later according to odds
The next General Election is currently scheduled in to take place no later than Wednesday 15 August 2029 and it looks likely we won't see it take place before then.
Usually the Prime Minister would wait until the final moments of his time in charge to hold the election and as of now it's expected to be the same this time around.
That can all change though of course with different factors coming into play and 2029 or later is followed in the betting odds at 2028 for a slightly earlier election to take place.
| Year of Next General Election | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 8/13 | 61.9% |
| 2028 | 13/8 | 38.1% |
| 2027 | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| 2026 | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| 2025 | 25/1 | 3.8% |
