Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Kemi Badenoch is the outright favourite to be the next Conservative leader
- Bookies make it now 1/4 that the next General Election will take place in October-December 2024
- Andy Burnham is the favourite to be the next leader of the Labour party
Kemi Badenoch is the outright favourite to be the next Conservative leader
Betting remains open on who will be the next Conservative Party leader with Kemi Badenoch the outright favourite with bookmakers for the role next.
Reports in the past week have linked Badenoch to being in a WhatsApp group of Conservative MPs named "Evil Plotters" which is supposedly around looking to remove Rishi Sunak.
Sunak will all but certainly leave the role as Conservative leader if he loses the General Election which is set to take place in the next 12 months.
Paddy Power have Badenoch as the 9/4 favourite to take over as leader of the Tories next with The Guardian reporting about the Business Secretary being in the "Evil Plotters" group.
| Next Conservative Leader | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Penny Mordaunt | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Suella Braverman | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| James Cleverly | 13/2 | 13.3% |
| Nigel Farage | 12/1 | 7.7% |
What the expert says...
Bookies make it now 1/4 that the next General Election will take place in October-December 2024
The next General Election has to take place at some point before the end of January 2025 and it looks likely that it'll happen before the end of this year.
Rishi Sunak has previously stated that his "working assumption" was that the election would take place in the second half of the year, with the betting odds replicating that.
Bookies have given odds of 1/4 that the General Election takes place between October-December 2024, but other reports say that Sunak could trigger an election in May.
Sunak may well call an early election to try and wrong-foot Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer's run for leading the nation in it's next period.
UK General Election Betting Odds
Andy Burnham is the favourite to be the next leader of the Labour party
Betting is also available on who will replace Keir Starmer as the next Labour leader with bookies putting Andy Burnham as the favourite in this market.
Burnham is currently the mayor of Greater Manchester and has been in that role since 2017 and previously ran for Labour leader back in 2015.
We may well see him run again in the future with the latest betting odds now putting him as the betting favourite at 4/1 to lead the party next.
| Next Labour Leader | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Rachel Reeves | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Yvette Cooper | 15/2 | 11.8% |
| Wes Streeting | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Lisa Nandy | 9/1 | 10.0% |
Political Betting Author Information
Political Betting Expert
Jake Ashton
- Your Betting Odds Guide 👍
