2021 Kilbegnet Novice Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Sep 27, 3:35pm Last Updated: Sep 30, 2:51pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 302 Views

2021 Kilbegnet Novice Chase Preview

Scheduled to take place in late September or early October of each year at the Roscommon racecourse, the Kilbegnet Novice Chase is a Grade 3 chase open to novices who are four or older with the race being run over a trip of two miles and half a furlong. The race has been switched to other courses three times since 2000 due to circumstances of it not being able to be run at Roscommon, those were Punchestown (2000), Limerick (2002) and Gowran Park (2016).

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 3:48.60 was set by Darwins Fox in 2013, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Henry De Bromhead and ridden by A E Lynch. The slowest winning time was set in 2002 when Fiery Ring won in a time of 4:23.70, booked to ride was Ross Geraghty on this J R H Fowler trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Kilbegnet Novice Chase over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2013 - Darwins Fox (3:48.60)
  • 2014 - Ted Veale (3:53.50)
  • 2010 - Save My Blushes (3:54.50)

How competitive is the Kilbegnet Novice Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2004 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 125%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Kilbegnet Novice Chase, the over-round has been 117% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Kilbegnet Novice Chase next time out then you would have back a total of 2 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -13.25. Whilst we wait for the 2021 Kilbegnet Novice Chase remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

Kilbegnet Novice Chase Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Kilbegnet Novice Chase. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Kilbegnet Novice Chase as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
7yo 11-3 5/2
Rachael Blackmore
Henry De Bromhead
6yo 11-1 4/5F
A P Heskin
John Queally
7yo 11-5 3/1
Dylan Robinson
Henry De Bromhead
4yo 10-5 2/1F
Mark Walsh
Joseph Patrick O'Brien
6yo 11-1 9/2
David Mullins
Henry De Bromhead
The Game Changer
6yo 11-8 11/10
B J Cooper
Gordon Elliott
Ted Veale
7yo 11-1 1/1F
Barry Geraghty
A J Martin
Darwins Fox
7yo 11-1 9/4F
A E Lynch
Henry De Bromhead
Baily Green
6yo 11-8 2/1
D J Casey
M F Morris
St Devote
6yo 11-1 8/1
Barry Geraghty
Eoin Griffin

Kilbegnet Novice Chase Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Kilbegnet Novice Chase over the last 20 renewals is Henry De Bromhead who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Darwins Fox (2013), Ridestan (2016), Ornua (2018) & Benruben (2020). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Kilbegnet Novice Chase is Noel Meade (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Kilbegnet Novice Chase trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Henry De Bromhead 15-4-8 +1.25 +2.24
Noel Meade 7-2-3 -0.42 -0.55
Paul W Flynn 4-1-1 +4.00 +1.38
Joseph Patrick O'Brien 4-1-1 -1.00 -1.75
Eoin Griffin 2-1-1 +7.00 +3.80
M F Morris 2-1-2 +1.00 +2.15
Gordon Elliott 2-1-1 +0.10 -1.00
A L T Moore 2-1-1 -0.20 -1.00
T Hogan 1-1-1 +2.25 +1.41
James Joseph Mangan 1-1-1 +1.38 +0.86

Kilbegnet Novice Chase Jockey Statistics

Here are some of the top Kilbegnet Novice Chase jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Davy Russell 7-1-3 -4.62 -2.50
Rachael Blackmore 3-1-2 +0.50 +0.37
Mark Walsh 3-1-1 +0.00 -0.75
David Mullins 2-1-1 +3.50 +1.70
B J Cooper 2-1-1 +0.10 -1.00
A P Heskin 2-1-1 -0.20 +0.50
Paul Townend 6-0-4 -6.00 -2.55
Robbie Colgan 4-0-1 -4.00 -1.00
Denis ORegan 4-0-0 -4.00 -4.00
Niall P Madden 3-0-0 -3.00 -3.00

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,1,2,2,F,2,1,1,1,2,4,3,F,(1,8),1,2,PU,1,2,1,3

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (75%) - No bigger than 12/1
  • 20 / 20 (75%) - Previously won over 16.5f+
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Focus on Geldings
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Not 1yr younger than ave age
  • 19 / 20 (68%) - Beaten no more than 10l (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (72%) - Had won that season
  • 18 / 20 (68%) - Won within last 3 starts
  • 18 / 20 (69%) - 3-7 Starts that season

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Roscommon racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Kilbegnet Novice Chase. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Kilbegnet Novice Chase by adding a tip on the race here.

Kilbegnet Novice Chase Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +14.01 is when runners ran on soft ground when last winning. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a furthest trip won of 2m, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-32.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Kilbegnet Novice Chase is Listowel, there has been a total number of 7 winners of this race who ran at Listowel last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Galway, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Galway last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 106 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 24 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Fiery Ring in 2002 when winning for J R H Fowler at odds of 12/1 under the guidance of Ross Geraghty. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 8 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2021 Kilbegnet Novice Chase.


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