2021 Kerry National Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Sep 21, 3:39pm Last Updated: Sep 24, 1:05pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 348 Views

2021 Kerry National Preview

Scheduled to take place in September of each year at the Listowel racecourse is the Kerry National which is the most valuable race at Listowel throughout their season. The race is run over three miles where the runners will face a total of eighteen fences during the race, runners aged four or older who have run at least three times over fences are eligible to enter the race. This is a race in which the female jockeys have had a good time of late with four of the last six renewals going to a female jockey.

The runner which holds the record over past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2008 renewal when Ponmeoath from E McNamara who under the guidance of the P W Flood, won in a time of 6:21.40, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Your Busy, trained by J A Nash and ridden by Ms K Walsh set the quickest time of 5:39.60 in the 2014 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Kerry National over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2014 - Your Busy (5:39.60)
  • 2005 - Euro Leader (5:43.30)
  • 2002 - Montys Pass (5:44.70)

How competitive is the Kerry National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2001 when the race had an over-round of 124%. The race in 2010 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 145%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Kerry National, the over-round has been 136% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £136 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Kerry National next time out then you would have back a total of 2 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -13.45. Ahead of the 2021 Kerry National why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today.

Kerry National Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Kerry National. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Kerry National as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2020
6:07.00
Cabaret Queen
8yo 10-9 6/1
Paul Townend
W P Mullins
2019
5:57.00
Poker Party
7yo 10-5 14/1
Rachael Blackmore
Henry De Bromhead
2018
5:56.70
Snow Falcon
8yo 11-5 6/1
Jonathan Moore
Noel Meade
2017
6:21.30
Potters Point
7yo 10-0 8/1
Ms L ONeill (5lbs)
Gordon Elliott
2016
6:10.10
Wrath Of Titans
7yo 9-3 7/1
Ms L ONeill (7lbs)
Gordon Elliott
2015
6:02.20
Rogue Angel
7yo 10-4 8/1
Ger Fox (3lbs)
M F Morris
2014
5:39.60
Your Busy
11yo 9-12 25/1
Ms K Walsh
J A Nash
2013
5:52.10
White Star Line
9yo 10-4 16/1
A E Lynch
D T Hughes
2012
6:15.70
Faltering Fullback
9yo 9-12 33/1
Danny Mullins
E McNamara
2011
6:00.60
Alfa Beat
7yo 11-3 20/1
Barry Geraghty
John Joseph Hanlon

Kerry National Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Kerry National over the last 20 renewals with both W P Mullins & E McNamara who have both won the race 3 times. W P Mullins winners have been with Euro Leader (2005), Bothar Na (2006) & Cabaret Queen (2020). E McNamara winners have been with Ponmeoath (2007), Ponmeoath (2008) & Faltering Fullback (2012). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Kerry National is Gordon Elliott (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Kerry National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
W P Mullins 37-3-8 -12.50 -11.06
E McNamara 15-3-7 +44.00 +32.01
Gordon Elliott 22-2-5 -5.00 -4.42
Noel Meade 12-1-3 -5.00 -4.06
Michael Hourigan 11-1-6 -2.00 +4.70
Henry De Bromhead 8-1-1 +7.00 +1.75
C Byrnes 7-1-4 +0.00 +0.88
A J Martin 7-1-2 -2.00 -1.62
M F Morris 6-1-2 +3.00 +1.50
A L T Moore 5-1-2 +10.00 +6.75

Kerry National Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Kerry National over the last 20 renewals is Ms L O'Neill who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Wrath Of Titans (2016) & Potters Point (2017). There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Kerry National, Robbie Power (0-11), Mark Walsh (0-11) & Davy Russell (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Kerry National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ms L O'Neill 3-2-2 +14.00 +8.38
Paul Townend 12-1-3 -5.00 -2.25
Danny Mullins 6-1-1 +28.00 +15.63
Rachael Blackmore 4-1-2 +11.00 +6.69
Timmy Murphy 3-1-2 +6.00 +4.13
Jonathan Moore 3-1-2 +4.00 +4.25
Robbie Power 11-0-2 -11.00 -7.50
Mark Walsh 11-0-1 -11.00 -8.75
Davy Russell 10-0-4 -10.00 -2.93
Niall P Madden 7-0-0 -7.00 -7.00

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,5,7,4,F,2,2,(3,6),PU,1,2,2,PU,7,3,F,PU,(5,7),3,9,3

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Never placed further than 3m1f
  • 20 / 20 (90%) - Fewer than 3 Chase falls
  • 20 / 20 (92%) - Debut was not in France
  • 19 / 20 (67%) - Ran within last 48 days
  • 19 / 20 (80%) - Aged between 6yo & 9yo
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Had not fallen that season
  • 18 / 20 (65%) - Not older than race average
  • 18 / 20 (67%) - Had 3-6 career wins

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Listowel racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Kerry National. Maybe you are looking to back something in this race on the tote, but you are not sure of the process or how the tote works? No problem! We have an article which is dedicated to The Tote for you to read which explains everything you need to know! Be sure to check out the other articles too in the OLBG Betting School.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Kerry National by adding a tip on the race here.

Kerry National Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +21.00 is when runners had recorded 1 career fall in over Jumps (Chase). The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 starts in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-51.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Kerry National is Galway, there has been a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Galway last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Tralee, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Tralee last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 330 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 18 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, theses are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Kerry National:

  • Environment Friend (2 Wins)
  • Flemensfirth (2 Wins)
  • Presenting (2 Wins)

Theses are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kerry National despite multiple attempts:

  • Beneficial (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Old Vic (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Dr Massini (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Magical Wonder (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Faltering Fullback in 2012 when winning for E McNamara at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of Danny Mullins. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 1 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

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