Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
- Rishi Sunak Heads the Betting Markets for Next Conservative Leader from Michael Gove
- Bookmakers are 98% Certain and Change in leadership Will not Happen This Year
- A Sunday Times Claim that Johnson Considered Liz Truss a good Leader saw her Odds shorten with Bookies
- But Johnson is priced at 1.8, a 55% chance survive as Conservative Leader until 2024, When the Conservative have a 50% chance of Overall Majority
Boris Johnson's popularity continues to wane although not as bad as one might think. Following the public suggestion of a demotion for Rishi Sunak and a Times claim that Johnson favours Liz Truss as next Conservative leader of the party, the betting market is still in Sunak's favour.
Currently, Sunak is the 2/1 favourite with betting sites to take over from Johnson making him a 33% compared to 7.5% chance of Truss at odds of 12/1
Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak | 2/1 | 33% |
| Michael Gove | 5/1 | 16% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 8/1 | 11% |
| Dominic Raab | 10/1 | 9% |
| Liz Truss | 12/1 | 7.5% |
No Change expected in 2021
When looking at the betting for when bookmakers predict Johnson will be replaced as the Prime Minister, there is no indication that his current role is at any risk from within, and he is given a 98% chance of remaining in the job until at least the end of 2021.
At odds of 1/50 representing that 98% probability, you would need to bet £50 to win just £1 for Johnson NOT to be replaced this year - Safe to sat BoJo looks safe in his seat for now.
Bookmakers are offering odds of 7/1 that Johnson will be replaced as Prime minister in 2021
Year Boris Johnson is Replaced as Prime Minister
| Year | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 or later | 1/50 | 98% |
| 2021 | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Some Support for Truss after Johnson Comments
Whilst Rishi Sunak has been publicly touted for demotion following the leak of a letter regarding potential travel restrictions, Johnson has also trumpeted the possibility of Liz Truss being a potential successor to Sunak, seeing her odds move in a positive fashion.
Now a 12/1 Chance to be the next Conservative leader, she sits behind only Sunak [2/1], Gove [5/1], Jeremy Hunt [8/1] and Dominic Raab [10/1] in the betting.
Next General Election is not Expected until 2024 where Conservatives are 50/50 to retain Power
Whether Boris Johnson will survive in his position to fight another general election remains to be seen. At this time, the Conservatives are favourite to win by majority and are given a 50% chance and odds of Evens of this outcome.
2024 Should be the year of the next GE, and is just a 1/2 chance should you wish to bet on that possibility
Next General Election Date Betting Odds
| Year | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1/2 | 66% |
| 2023 | 2/1 | 33% |
| 2022 | 9/1 | 11% |
| 2021 | 15/1 | 6% |
