Profitable Horse Racing Betting System - Backing Value Selections In Multiple Bets

The placing of multiple bets (doubles, trebles, accumulators, Lucky 15s/31s, etc) tends to divide the opinion of punters between two stalls, namely:

They provide small stakes punters with the opportunity to win a substantial amount, albeit such payouts tend to be fairly rare and they are always well publicised by the bookmakers, as news of a big win keeps the dream alive for the many punters who regularly place such bets without finding the lucky combination. 

You can also benefit from all correct bets such as the William Hill Lucky 15 bonus 

The alternative view which tends to be put forward by more serious punters is that it is hard enough to find a winner, without risking the potential payout in respect of a winner by trying to beat the best bookmakers for horse racing with multiple bets, which are geared in favour of the layer, hence the widespread promotion of such bets by the online and high street bookmakers.

I must admit that for many years, I have been staunchly in the second camp and have rarely placed multiple bets, other than the occasional each way double, preferring to back most of my selections in single bets.

However, during a recent discussion with a friend, who also is a serious horse racing punter, we came to the conclusion that it may be possible to turn the use of multiple bets, which we both believed to be the bookmaker's friend into a potent weapon with which punters can increase their returns and therefore make bigger profits.

The key to this idea is that the punter should only place selections in multiple bets when the bookmaker's odds underestimate the chance of winning.

The Mathematics Of Multiple Bets

Before I provide more detail regarding this idea, it would seem appropriate to explain the mathematical theory of multiple bets with a few simple examples:

Let's assume that on a particular day a punter decides on two selections, that can both be backed at odds of 4/1, which is a true reflection of each selection's chance of winning.

If the punter backs both selections in singles, for a stake of 0.50 pts each, the possible outcomes are as follows:

• Both selections lose: 64%, resulting in the loss of 1.00 pt
• One selection wins: 32%, resulting in a profit of 1.50 pts (win return 2.50 pts minus total stake 1.00 pt)
• Both selections win: 4%, resulting in a profit of 4.00 pts (win return 5.00pts minus total stake 1.00 pt)

Therefore over the course of 100 days (200 bets), the punter would break even, as returns would exactly cover total stakes.

However, if the punter placed the selections in a 1 pt win double, the position would be as follows:

• Both selections lose: 64%, resulting in the loss of 1.00 pt
• One selection wins: 32%, resulting in a loss of 1.00 pt
• Both selections win: 4%, resulting in a profit of 24.00 pts (win return 25.00 pts minus total stake of 1.00 pt)

Again, over a period of 100 days (100 bets) the punter would break even, so in theory it would make no financial difference to the punter whether they backed these selections singularly, or in a double, providing that the odds secured with the bookmaker were truly in line with selection's chance of winning.

However, the picture changes should the punter be backing selections at 4/1, when their chance of winning is less than 20%.

I will use a win rate of 15% and the percentage figures have been rounded to produce whole numbers for the possible outcomes in the following examples:

0.50 pt SINGLES

• Both selections lose: 72%, resulting in the loss of 1.00 pt
• One selection wins: 26%, resulting in a profit of 1.50 pts (win return 2.50 pts minus total stake 1.00 pt)
• Both selections win: 2%, resulting in a profit of 4.00 pts (win return 5.00pts minus total stake 1.00 pt)

In this situation, the punter finishes after 100 days (200 bets) with a loss of 25.00 pts.

1 pt DOUBLES

• Both selections lose: 72%, resulting in the loss of 1.00 pt
• One selection wins: 26%, resulting in a loss of 1.00 pt
• Both selections win: 2%, resulting in a profit of 24.00 pts (win return 25.00 pts minus total stake of 1.00 pt)

If the punter had placed both selections in a double, the loss would have been significantly larger (x2) at 50.00 pts, which is the reason why bookmaker's are keen to promote multiple bets.

The situation is very different if the punter can identify value selections at odds of 4/1, which actually have a higher chance of winning.

I will use a win rate of 25% and again the percentage figures have been rounded to produce whole numbers for the possible outcomes in the following examples:

0.50 pt SINGLES

• Both selections lose: 56%, resulting in the loss of 1.00 pt
• One selection wins: 38%, resulting in a profit of 1.50 pts (win return 2.50 pts minus total stake 1.00 pt)
• Both selections win: 6%, resulting in a profit of 4.00 pts (win return 5.00pts minus total stake 1.00 pt)

In this situation, the punter finishes after 100 days (200 bets) with a profit of 25.00 pts.

1 pt DOUBLES

• Both selections lose: 56%, resulting in the loss of 1.00 pt
• One selection wins: 38%, resulting in a loss of 1.00 pt
• Both selections win: 6%, resulting in a profit of 24.00 pts (win return 25.00 pts minus total stake of 1.00 pt)

If the punter had placed both selections in a double, the profit would have been significantly larger (x2) at 50.00 pts, albeit 6 winning days out of 100 may stretch the patience and confidence of the punter.

Although I have only provided examples based on 2 selections backed as singles, or a double each day, the above mathematical theory holds true for all multiple bets and in fact the potential profit margins increase as more value selections are added to the bet, albeit the strike rate reduces, assuming that the selections perform as expected.

Methods For Finding Value Selections

The next stage requires punters to identify a reliable method for the selection of value horses in a race.

Clearly, there are a number of methods available to the punter that will meet this requirement, including various subscription services, although these are often expensive to purchase.

1. On OLBG we have a number of profitable tipsters offering free horse racing tips, this method could be tested by monitoring the best tipsters over a period of time. 

You could check their daily tips and then decide on a small select group of tipsters value selections, the key word being value. 

2. You could filter all OLBG tips above say a set price knowing that by sticking to a value price your strike rate can be lower. 

3. You could look for races where the head of the market is weak, and focus more on those horses 6/1 +. 

4. You could focus on a particular jockey or jockeys, maybe those with the best strike rate at the course. 

5. You could research those trainers who have sent their horses a fair distance (longest travellers). 

However you choose your selections,  it is imperative that the punter is confident that the method that they utilise is as accurate as possible, as backing selections at odds that are lower than the chance of winning when placing multiple bets is a sure-fire route to losses and eventually the poorhouse.

My preferred method is to use the VALUE CALCULATOR, which is both simple and free to use and has a proven overall record of producing consistent profits since I first developed the methodology in early 2016.

For readers who have yet to encounter the VALUE CALCULATOR, or wish to refresh their understanding of the mechanics and early results for this methodology, I would recommend that they take a few minutes to review my initial article which can be accessed via the following link:

Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR Further articles relating to the VALUE CALCULATOR are easily accessible via the following link: VALUE CALCULATOR INDEX

Way Forward

Having analysed the mathematical theory which shows that placing value selections in multiple bets can generate larger profits than backing selections singularly and armed with the VALUE CALCULATOR, it would seem appropriate to test this theory by means of a live experiment over a period of time.

The major drawback in relation to backing selections in multiple bets is the requirement to back all selections with just one bookmaker, which removes the flexibility for punters to cherry pick the best odds available from various sources.

To partially counteract this negative, I intend to place the VALUE CALCULATOR selections in a daily Lucky 15 at best odds with Betfred, who offer a couple of useful concessions in that they pay 3 times the odds for a single winner, plus a 10% bonus on an all correct bet (in the unlikely event that I actually select 4 winners on a particular day).

My selections and regular profit/loss updates can be viewed on the following OLBG discussion thread:

VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT: Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15 I hope that readers have found this analysis of interest and as usual, I would welcome any comments and feedback, especially if readers have any similar ideas/methodologies for maximising their profits that they are happy to share.

Also, if you have enjoyed this blog, please feel free to share the link on social media, with your friends and contacts who are interested in horse racing.