2:15 Carlisle Tips

Dapper Charm has run to second for all three runs so far, with the latest being in C2 with Hollie on top. He returns today with Hollie again but back in C5, so I would expect more today.

Favourite takes all the beating here, but selection does offer an Ew option in the race. Was awkward @ start and very green in running on debut run, so actually did well in the circumstances to be only beaten 7.25 lengths when coming 7/8 in a similar class maiden over 5f @ Thirsk. Entitled to come a lot for that run/experience, very under used jockey retains ride and in hands of a shrewd training duo, making current 9/1 the Ew value in the race.

Heavy ground is going to find many out, and this filly by Ardad could be well capable of sluicing through this ground, going on pedigree. If eyeing her pedigree line, she has a bloodline with the likes of Red Ransom. Back in the day, horses with 'Red' in the name did act well on a soft surface. Not all, mind, possibly what I used to note. This filly's run at Redcar showed she was up with the pace at one stage, being on the near side of the track, which was left in the wake of the far side being the dominant side. She has stall eleven here, from which she can get competitive to make a challenge, hopefully a strong one, up the near side rail, which, when soft to heavy at Carlisle, all swing to.

Makes his debut today, and the market suggests he really has an uphill task of causing an upset by winning. But the sire, Land Force (IRE), might just be the difference tomorrow.