Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Late Russian activist Alexei Navalny is now 1/2 to win the Nobel Peace Prize
- Narges Mohammadi won 2023 award "for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran"
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was favourite to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize
Late Russian activist Alexei Navalny is now 1/2 to win the Nobel Peace Prize
Alexei Navalny, the late Russian activist who passed earlier this year, is now the 1/2 favourite with betting sites to win the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize posthumously later this year.
Navalny's death was reported back in February with Russian accounts saying that the 47-year-old took a walk in the Arctic Circle prison where he was situated before collapsing and never regaining consciousness.
Further reports state that Navalny died of "sudden death syndrome" with the Wall Street Journal reporting that US agencies believe that Putin didn't "directly order Navalny's death".
Now the odds of Navalny winning the Nobel Peace Prize have been slashed to just 1/2 with those odds suggesting a 66% chance that he is given the award later this year.
Those odds have been slashed from 5/1 earlier this year with the Russian being backed massively to win the award following his shock passing in February.
| 2024 Nobel Peace Prize Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Alexei Navalny | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Ilham Tohti | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 15/2 | 11.8% |
| International Court of Justice | 15/2 | 11.8% |
What the expert says...
Narges Mohammadi won 2023 award "for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran"
Narges Mohammadi was awarded the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize for “for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran and her fight to promote human rights and freedom for all”.
Mohammadi remains imprisoned for running a human rights movement that campaigned against the abolition of the death penalty in Iran and has been sentenced to an additional year in prison back in June.
The activist has been arrested 13 times was and her family revealed in a statement on the Narges Foundation that she had received a “cumulative sentence of 13 years and three months in prison, 154 lashes, exile, and four months of street cleaning”.
Nobel Peace Prize Betting and Previous Winners
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was favourite to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously been the favourite to win the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize with bookies having him as the 3/1 market leader at the start of the year.
The Russia/Ukraine war remains ongoing and he is once again in and around the top of the betting market for the award.
Zelenskyy was sworn in as the 6th President of Ukraine back in May 2019 and he has had a whirlwind 5 years in charge of his country with nearly 900 days since the Russia-Ukraine war began.
