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- Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms are the 3/1 favourites for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
- Donald Trump remains second-favourite at 4/1 despite controversial Greenland comments
- Market includes humanitarian groups, statespeople and prominent public figures
As speculation builds around the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, US President Donald Trump remains one of the frontrunners in the latest betting odds despite his most recent political messaging appearing to veer far from the ideals of peace.
According to betting sites, Trump is 4/1 to win the award this year, behind only Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, who top the market at 3/1 for their grassroots humanitarian work in conflict-affected regions.
Trump has long desired the recognition of a Nobel win and his recently launched “Board of Peace” initiative was seen by some as an attempt to boost his credentials with the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
However, that effort was overshadowed this month by a message to Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre, in which Trump claimed the US should seek "Complete and Total Control of Greenland", blaming his lack of Nobel Peace Prize as a reason as to why.
Nobel Peace Prize Betting and Previous Winners
Latest Nobel Peace Prize Odds (2026)
| Candidate / Organisation | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Donald Trump | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Doctors Without Borders (MSF) | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| UNRWA | 15/2 | 11.8% |
| David Attenborough | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Julian Assange | 9/1 | 10.0% |
Peace in Practice vs. Peace in PR
The Nobel Peace Prize has historically rewarded those making tangible, long-term efforts toward global harmony, conflict resolution, or humanitarian outreach.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are being strongly backed for this reason, acting as decentralised, volunteer-led aid hubs throughout Sudan’s ongoing conflict.
Their work has been described as “the future of frontline humanitarianism” and could see them follow in the footsteps of other grassroots organisations who’ve won the prize, such as Médecins Sans Frontières, who are priced at 6/1 for a potential second win.
In contrast, Trump’s recent political language around militarised control of Greenland, a NATO member territory, sparked condemnation from Denmark and symbolic troop movements from European allies. raising doubts over whether his “peace” branding aligns with Nobel values.
What the expert says...
Where to Bet on the Nobel Peace Prize
Peace Prize specials occasionally appear on major political betting sites closer to the official announcement in October.
You can also track odds movement and value plays using OLBG’s free bets and promotions from trusted bookmakers when these long-range novelty markets reopen.
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
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