I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Reform UK slashed to 1/20 at Ladbrokes as no main Westminster parties confirmed candidates
- 34 candidates confirmed in total, including 20 independents and joke candidates from three separate Monster Raving Loony entries
- Count Binface drifted from 9/2 to 8/1 as the challenger field expanded
The Clacton By-Election Has Turned Genuinely Bizarre
The candidate list for the Clacton by-election on 13 August has been confirmed, and it contains 34 names, 20 of them independents, plus joke candidates including three separate Monster Raving Loony party entries.
None of the main Westminster parties are standing. Not the Conservatives. Not Labour. Not the Liberal Democrats. Not the Greens. Every party has decided not to run against Nigel Farage here.
Reform UK, backed by Nigel Farage returning to defend the seat he resigned from on 7 July, has been slashed to 1/20 (95.24% implied) across betting sites trading this.
Count Binface, meanwhile, has drifted from 9/2 to 8/1 (11.11% implied) according to Ladbrokes' latest betting market.
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excluded. Min first £5/€5 bet within 14 days of account registration at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
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Clacton By-Election Odds
| Clacton By-Election Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 1/20 | 95.24% |
| Count Binface | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Andy Erlam (Independent) | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Gerry Smith (Independent) | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Joseph 77 (Independent) | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Monster Raving Loony Party | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Laurence Fox (Reclaim Party) | 500/1 | 0.20% |
1/20 Is The Party Absence Priced In
Without the Conservatives, without Labour, without the Lib Dems, without the Greens, Reform faces no candidate with the party infrastructure, established voter base, or political weight to threaten them.
Farage is the biggest name on the ballot by an enormous margin, and the market has priced that reality directly.
When mainstream parties don't stand in by-elections, it sends a very specific signal, with many parties suggesting this by-election is pointless against Farage.
Count Binface Vote Percentage Bands
| Count Binface Vote Share | Odds |
|---|---|
| 20-24.99% | 7/2 |
| 5-9.99% | 9/2 |
| 15-19.99% | 5/1 |
| 10-14.99% | 6/1 |
| 25-29.99% | 6/1 |
| 30-34.99% | 7/1 |
Where To Bet on Political Specials Markets
UK political specials sit within a busy corner of the entertainment betting landscape, and Ladbrokes are among the operators leading the pricing on this one.
The best political betting sites alongside the wider UK bookmaker landscape typically deepen coverage as by-election campaign windows progress.
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excluded. Min first £5/€5 bet within 14 days of account registration at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
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