I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Reform have drifted fractionally from 1/9 to 1/7 at bet365 following the writ being moved
- Count Binface sits as the second-favourite at 9/2, with Laurence Fox at 66/1 and the Monster Raving Loony Party at 100/1
- Reform MP Lee Anderson moved the writ on Thursday morning
Writ Moved as Clacton By-Election Campaign Officially Begins
The Clacton by-election has moved a stage closer, with Reform MP Lee Anderson moving the writ in the Commons on Thursday morning.
A likely by-election date of Thursday, 13 August has emerged, though the date has yet to be formally confirmed.
The formal triggering of the contest has prompted bet365, one of the betting sites leading pricing on the market, to refresh their board, with Reform drifting fractionally to 1/7 from the 1/9 they opened at earlier in the cycle.
Reform were priced at 1/9 when the seat first became vacant after Farage stepped down and announced he would re-run.
A drift to 1/7 is the tiniest of market cracks, but on a market that opened this heavily weighted, any drift at all is a signal worth reading.
Reading the Reform Drift
Moving from 1/9 to 1/7 might sound trivial, but the maths tells a slightly different story.
In implied probability terms, that's a 2.5 percentage point shift over a matter of days.
The presence of Count Binface, Laurence Fox and the Monster Raving Loony Party on the board means that there are candidates who may grab votes from Farage.
Count Binface especially is expected to do well with the lack of Labour and Conservative candidates running.
Where To Bet on By-Election and Political Specials Markets
Parliamentary by-elections attract some of the most active political specials trading in the UK betting calendar, and bet365 are among a number of operators pricing markets on this contest.
The best political betting sites and the wider UK bookmaker landscape typically expand coverage as by-election campaigns move through their formal stages, offering everything from headline winner markets to majority bands, turnout specials and individual candidate props.
