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- Labour are 1/6 odds-on favourites to win the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July
- Reform UK are 5/1 second favourites following their growing momentum in Northern England
- The Conservatives sit a remarkable 100/1 in a region they once contested seriously
Labour Dominate Mayoral Market After Burnham Departure
Andy Burnham's stunning Makerfield by-election win earlier this month came at a price he was happy to pay: his position as Greater Manchester mayor.
The automatic disqualification that follows a sitting mayor becoming an MP has left one of the most prominent regional political jobs in Britain vacant, and on 30 July voters across the city region head back to the polls to fill it.
Ladbrokes have made Labour the 1/6 odds-on favourites to hold the seat, in line with the party's complete dominance of the mayoralty since its creation.
An 85.7% implied probability for any single party is striking, but in a region where Labour controls most council leaderships and the overwhelming majority of parliamentary seats, the layers are essentially pricing in electoral physics rather than political prediction.
Reform UK at 5/1 carries the momentum of their strong Makerfield second-place finish, while the Conservatives at 100/1 tell a story about the state of their party that goes well beyond this single contest.
Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election Odds
| Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/6 | 85.7% |
| Reform UK | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Green Party | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Restore Britain | 50/1 | 2.0% |
| Conservatives | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| Workers Party of Britain | 250/1 | 0.4% |
| Liberal Democrats | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Why Labour Are 1/6 Heavy Favourites
Labour have held the Greater Manchester mayoralty since the role was created in 2017, with Burnham winning his three terms by margins that progressively widened rather than narrowed.
A late-July by-election held just weeks after a 9,000-vote landslide in Makerfield catches Labour at exactly the moment it needs.
That doesn't guarantee a comparable vote share on 30 July, turnout and dynamics in mayoral races differ meaningfully from parliamentary contests, but it provides exactly the kind of tailwind that turns a strong default position into something close to electoral inevitability.
Where To Bet On The Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election
Mayoral election markets move quickly in the final weeks before polling day, with candidate selections, campaign launches and any local polling all capable of shifting prices.
The top political betting sites tend to be quickest to react, and most major UK betting sites carry mayoral markets when high-profile elections approach.
