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- Nigel Farage is the overwhelming favourite to retain Clacton at this week's by-election, priced at 1/100 with Ladbrokes
- Count Binface is his clearest challenger at 25/1, with a separate market also available on his likely vote share
- A record 34 candidates are standing after Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Restore Britain all declined to field candidates
Unusual By-Election Takes Shape
This week's Clacton by-election continues to shape up to be one of the more unusual contests in recent political memory, and UK betting sites already have a clear picture of how it's expected to unfold.
Farage triggered the by-election himself, resigning his seat in order to seek re-election, a decision that came amid parliamentary scrutiny over his personal finances.
With none of the traditional main parties choosing to contest the seat, this has left an unusually wide field of challengers, and a genuinely fascinating market for anyone following along.
Ladbrokes' latest market expects dominance at the polls for Reform, with Farage priced at an extraordinary 1/100 to retain his seat.
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Record Field Of Candidates
A record 34 candidates are standing, breaking a record that had stood since 2008, after Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Restore Britain all opted not to field candidates against Farage.
That decision has left the seat largely contested by smaller parties, independents and, most prominently, satirical candidate Count Binface, who has quickly established himself as the most talked-about name on the ballot.
Binface holds the clearest position among the challengers, priced at 25/1.
Clacton By-Election Odds
| Clacton By-Election Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 1/100 | 99.0% |
| Count Binface | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Andy Erlam (Independent) | 500/1 | 0.2% |
| Gerry Smith (Independent) | 500/1 | 0.2% |
| Joseph 77 (Independent) | 500/1 | 0.2% |
| Piers Corbyn (Independent) | 500/1 | 0.2% |
What the expert says...
Count Binface Emerges As The Story Of The Contest
Count Binface's campaign has attracted considerable media attention throughout, positioning itself as the main outlet for those unhappy with the lack of mainstream opposition on the ballot.
While few would seriously expect him to win, some national polling has shown a notably strong preference for Binface over Farage when voters were asked a straight head-to-head question, even if local constituency polling still points clearly towards a comfortable Farage victory.
Beyond Binface, the remainder of the leading names in the betting are priced at 500/1, including independents Andy Erlam, Gerry Smith, Joseph 77 and Piers Corbyn.
| Count Binface Vote Percentage | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 15-19.99% | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| 20-24.99% | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| 10-14.99% | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| 25-29.99% | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| 30-34.99% | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| 5-9.99% | 11/1 | 8.3% |
Where To Bet On The Clacton By-Election
Ladbrokes currently offer one of the most comprehensive markets on this unusual contest, though it's worth comparing prices across a wider range of betting sites before placing a bet.
Our guide to the top political betting sites is the perfect place to start for comparing the best operators for markets like this one.
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excluded. Min first £5/€5 bet within 14 days of account registration at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
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