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- Vanessa Nakate has emerged as the new favourite for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize with BetAhoy, priced at 21/10
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms follow closely behind at 12/5, with Donald Trump and Doctors Without Borders sharing third favouritism at 15/4
- Nakate previously received a nomination for the 2023 prize and has built her profile as a leading voice on climate justice as a UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador
New Name Rises To The Top
The race for this year's Nobel Peace Prize has taken an intriguing turn, with bookmakers now showing a fresh favourite at the head of the market.
BetAhoy have Vanessa Nakate as the new leading contender, marking a notable shift in a race that had previously been dominated by a mix of humanitarian organisations and high-profile political figures throughout the earlier stages of this year's speculation.
For those less familiar with her work, Nakate is a Ugandan climate justice activist who has become one of the most prominent voices campaigning on the intersection of climate change and global inequality.
She currently serves as a UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador, using that platform to highlight the disproportionate impact of climate change on communities across Africa and the wider Global South.
Nakate has previously been nominated for the 2023 prize, giving her genuine pedigree within this particular field of contenders.
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms Remain Firmly In The Mix
Despite Nakate's rise to favouritism, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms continue to occupy a prominent position in the market, priced at 12/5.
The grassroots humanitarian network has consistently featured near the top of this year's betting throughout the year, reflecting sustained recognition of its work amid the ongoing crisis in Sudan, and it remains a genuinely credible alternative to Nakate at the head of the field.
Donald Trump and Doctors Without Borders both sit at 15/4, continuing a familiar pattern in this year's market of political figures and established humanitarian organisations trading at broadly similar prices.
What the expert says...
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Odds
| Nobel Peace Prize 2026 | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Nakate | 21/10 | 32.3% |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 12/5 | 29.4% |
| Donald Trump | 15/4 | 21.1% |
| Doctors Without Borders | 15/4 | 21.1% |
| Minneapolis | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| David Attenborough | 13/2 | 13.3% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 15/2 | 11.8% |
| UNRWA Philippe Lazzarini | 15/2 | 11.8% |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 15/2 | 11.8% |
Broad Field Of Contenders
Further down the market, Minneapolis is priced at 11/2, an unusual but notable entry reflecting a specific news story that's clearly caught the attention of bettors this year.
American magazine The Nation nominated the city for the Nobel Peace Prize at the start of 2026.
David Attenborough follows at 13/2, continuing to be recognised for his decades of environmental advocacy.
TIME Person Of The Year 2026 Odds: Zohran Mamdani Now Tops Betting Market
Where To Bet On The Nobel Peace Prize
With the announcement still some months away, this market is likely to continue evolving as global events unfold throughout the remainder of the year.
It's worth comparing prices across a range of betting sites as the picture develops, and checking for free bets if you're new to betting on award markets like this one.
Our guide to the best entertainment betting sites is a good starting point for comparing your options.
