How To Make Money From 3yo Handicaps - 2014 Edition

So I wrote a series of blogs last flat season that culminated in my list of horses to follow. That list can be viewed here and considering I admitted I wasn't as confident in the list as I had been in previous seasons I was very pleased with the results with most of those runners producing a decent profit.
I mentioned in that blog last year that I'd struggled to find early season 3yo handicaps that were working out well which had hampered my betting but this season I'm back on track so here is my early list of likely next time out winners, along with why they are well handicapped and what conditions they'll enjoy.
As the season progresses I will add more horses to the list and update results.

The List

Aertex - Won both her starts this season including the latest run which is working out really well. The 6th, 7th and 8th have all won on their first starts since and even the 9th and 12th have finished 3rd since. This looks as though it could be THE RACE to follow in terms of subsequent winners. She's run on softer ground but best form is on top of the ground or on the all weather (2 wins from 2 on artificial surfaces). A step up to a mile wouldn't be a problem. **OVERNIGHT RAIN COMPROMISED HIS CHANCE AT SANDOWN, KEEP THE FAITH ON FIRMER GROUND**
Token Of Love - Only raced twice, winning her debut before finishing 2nd to Aertex in the race above. Up 3lbs but that looks more than fair and she has a lot more improvement in her. Another that will be suited by a mile (entered in the Coronation Stakes still) and has previously been withdrawn due to soft ground so firmer ground is clearly preferred. She did the best of the seasonal debutants in this race so is probably the one to take from it and is in very good hands to keep on progressing. **RAN 3RD BEHIND CAY DANCER, CAN IMPROVE FURTHER AND WIN NEXT TIME OUT** **WON NEXT TIME, 7/4 SP, 11/4 AVAILABLE EARLY** **SINCE WON A LISTED RACE AT 9/2**
Venus Grace - Another from the Aertex Newbury race but she has actually
run since, disappointing when well beaten at Lingfield. She was reported to have been too keen and as she was gambled from 4/1 to 11/10 it's safe to say she is well thought of. The 7f trip looks on the sharp side so she can get back to form over a stiff 7f or a mile. Has run well at Kempton and on good to firm ground. **LOOKS TO HAVE COMPLETELY LOST HER FORM. DON'T BACK UNTIL SHE HAS SHOWN SOMETHING AGAIN (BY WHICH TEAM SHE SHOULD BE AMAZINGLY HANDICAPPED)**
Cay Dancer - Another with the same form as the above horses. She's a little more exposed than the three that finished ahead of her so not quite as good a bet but she should improve when going up to a mile. Proven on all types of ground which is a positive. **WINS FIRST START SINCE AT 10/1 SP (14/1 EARLY)** **WINS AGAIN AT 9/4 SP (7/2 EARLY)**
Dutch S - Same form again. Her effort needs marking up as she was making her seasonal debut and did best of those to race prominently. Looks best on faster surfaces and 7f likely to be her trip for now. **LOOKS TO HAVE COMPLETELY LOST HER FORM. DON'T BACK UNTIL SHE HAS SHOWN SOMETHING AGAIN (BY WHICH TEAM SHE SHOULD BE AMAZINGLY HANDICAPPED)**
Arab Dawn - Won all 3 starts this season and all 3 runs have worked out well. In particular his Newbury win with the 1st, 3rd and 5th winning since. Won another decent race that has already produced winners next time at Kempton and keeps winning by small margins so the handicapper can't get a grip. Yet to race on fast turf which could be an issue in mid summer (presumably he'll go for the 12f 3yo handicap at Ascot next week) but has run well on good and good to soft plus artificial surfaces. **RAN WELL IN THE KING GEORGE HANDICAP, JUST RUN OUT OF THE PLACES LATE. MAY WANT DROPPING BACK TO 10F**
Personal Opinion - Lightly raced and progressive and finished 2nd in the Arab Dawn Newbury race. Met trouble in running and was coming back a furlong there so worth marking up a bit. Like his Newbury conqueror, he is yet to race on firm ground but handles an easy surface or the all weather well. **RAN OK IN THE KING GEORGE HANDICAP, GIVEN TOO MUCH TO DO. WOULDN'T MIND 14F.**
Raven Ridge - Same Newbury race as the above two so he was surrounded by 3 subsequent winners. He was actually the favourite for this race and being a fairly well beaten 4th on both starts this season might look disappointing but the Windshear race at Newmarket was also a hot contest and it's interesting that he's been gelded since. Trainer Michael Bell has said he expects him to win very soon. Seems to handle most ground although probably better on firmer surfaces.
Lady Guinevere - Actually a 4yo but has been running against 3yos and has the same lightly raced profile so we'll let her in. Beaten in her two handicap starts by Lady Tiana and the first race at Nottingham has worked out really well with the 1st, 3rd and 5th all winning next time out. Lady Guinevere was the 2nd horse and was a bit disappointing next time at Sandown when behind Lady Tiana again but she really needed a stronger pace. Any ground seems ok and a step up to 10f should suit. **DISAPPOINTING AT CHEPSTOW BUT GOT LOOSE BEFORE AND 1M ON FIRMISH GROUND PROBABLY DIDN'T SUIT. BEGINNING TO LOOK A LITTLE PACELESS THOUGH.**
Fruit Pastille - Came 4th in the above Lady Tiana Nottingham race. Was much more disappointing than Lady Guinevere next time but the soft ground went against her as her breeding from both sides suggest firmer ground is better. Can win at a nice price at around a mile (maybe a bit further) when the ground is fast. **CLOSE 2ND AT 6/1 (12/1 EARLY) ON FIRST RUN SINCE. CAN PICK UP A FAIRLY WEAK RACE SOON ON FIRM GROUND** **WINS AT 5/1** **WINS AGAIN AT 8/1**
Shyron - Won a decent race at Yarmouth from which the 2nd, 3rd and 5th have all won since and 6th was only narrowly beaten. He disappointed next time out but I'm not sure he's a miler and I'm not sure the firm ground suited (dam preferred softer ground). Not been seen since which might back up the theory that he was jarred up but would be interesting at shorter trips with some cut in the ground.
Lawyer - Finished 4th in the Shyron Yarmouth race. Bred to get further and Luca Cumani hasn't really been in any sort of form all season so this is one to look out for when his stable get going, which it looks as though it is doing just now. **WON SECOND START SINCE, 2/1 SP, 9/2 AVAILABLE EARLY**
Liberty Red - Ran in probably the best handicap of the season behind Al Busayyir but hasn't been seen since. That race at Beverley has seen the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th and 9th all win next time out. Ed Dunlop had a virus in his yard shortly after so that could explain the absence and hopefully he'll be out soon as he's clearly very well handicapped on this run. He should get a mile and a half although is well handicapped at 10f whilst ground shouldn't be too much of an issue being by Dubawi, although he's unproven so far on softer than good.
Lovelocks - Finished 6th in the above race and the only one to really let the form down at all. His next run came in a good handicap at Chester and maybe the course just didn't suit. Anyway he's worth another chance on good ground over a mile and a half.
Zarwaan - Finished 2nd in what is always a hot Newbury handicap on his seasonal debut and this year's renewal was no exception. He gave 10lbs to winner Muwaary who then finished fourth in the French Guineas, only beaten 2 lengths. Back in 3rd was Brazos who won a decent Ascot handicap comfortably on his next start. 4th was Showpiece who finished 2nd in a handicap next time, 5th was Hors De Combat who won a Newmarket handicap next time, 6th was Lincoln who finished 2nd next time, 7th was Extremity who won next time and even the 9th won well last week. Zarwaan then finished 2nd again in the Silver Bowl so will be up in the weights again but the ground was heavy and he was one of Ed Dunlop's first runners since the yard was shut down because of a bug. I reckon this is the Britannia Handicap winner. **RAN WELL TO PLACE IN THE BRITANNIA, NOT GIVEN THE BEST RIDE. THAT WAS PROBABLY HIS LAST HANDICAP START SO MIGHT BE ONE TO LEAVE NOW**
Cinnilla - Ran a cracking race at Haydock 2 runs back behind Maid In Rio (won twice since) and Emerahldz (won next start). The 4th, 6th and 7th also all won next time out and even the 9th came 2nd next time and the 10th came 3rd. That's a really hot handicap so it would be disappointing that Cinnilla was beaten 13 lengths next time out wouldn't it? Well no because that came on good to firm ground and both his breeding and form suggests he's a mudlark. Will get further than 12f too and looks a good bet on soft surfaces at 12f+. **WINS FIRST START SINCE WHEN ENCOUNTERING SOFT GROUND AT 7/2 (10/1 EARLY) AND THEN FOLLOWS UP AT 5/2**
Gimme Five - Finished 4th in the same Haydock race as Cinnilla. He has since won over hurdles (trained by Alan King) but remains very nicely handicapped on the flat. Another that wants 12f+ on softish ground.
Kinema - Another from this Haydock race. Has been beaten since but he actually looks to want firmer ground and when he gets it he can win over 10f/12f.
Sirpertan - Beaten 12 lengths in this Haydock race but still split subsequent winners and that beating just means he's going to be carrying less weight at a big price. Looks to need soft ground and as he made his 3yo debut over 12f there should be no problem with going even further now.
Stars Above Me - Ran a great race lto when finishing 3rd in a handicap that has produced amazing results with the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th all winning at least once since. 5f and fast ground suit perfectly and should win next time out in those conditions. **UNFORTUNATELY TRANSFERRED TO AMERICA AND WINS FIRST RACE THERE**
If anyone has any thoughts on any of these runners or has found any other races that have worked out really well then please share.